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Central PA & The Fringes - February 2014 Pt. VI


2001kx

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Taking a bit of a detour to comment on the evening 0z models. Just amazing how this late week warm-up, which looked halfway impressive several days ago (or at least one that might last for a few days or so), has evolved into a 36 hour affair at best. Models in good agreement for a significant system riding into the western Great Lakes. The storm bombing out that quickly and far west leads me to think that precip amounts should be tempered and mainly associated with the cold front passage. Additionally, other than western PA west of the Laurels and probably some portion of the LSV... I find it hard pressed for even cracking 50 at the surface given marginal enough CAD and presence of a deep snowpack. Deep central PA back in UNV land might have trouble cracking 40 until the front's right on the doorstep. Really cold air coming back in behind the storm will probably be sluggish, so I think the weekend will still feature seasonal temps anyways. Later tomorrow and Wednesday should also feature seasonal temps as well. 

 

All the models get ridiculous out around D10 with the cold. The GFS and Canadian have -30C 850mb air lurking near PA and solid -20s for all the state. Pretty impressive for January standards, but VERY impressive when we're talking near the beginning of March. No notable storms on any of the major models out in that D6-10 range tonight.    

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One inch of new snow as of 4:30AM. Got woken up at about 2:30AM when a parade of fire trucks rolled through town. That ended up being a fire at our local WalMart, but when I looked out the window, we must have been in the middle of that "squall line" because it was snowing as hard as it did during round two of the 2/13 storm.

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I love winter, but I am ready for spring. This is not what I wanted to hear.

 

The ECWMF weeklies tonight give little hope for a warm Us March. As a matter of fact, they are brutal looking

read what JB posts when hyping the cold with a grain of salt... he will throw out those -5 to -8 values without much discussion that -5 to -8 is closer to 40 degrees in march than 32 as similar values would be in february

 

1.6" here... despite temps only in 20s my snow pack did take a hit yesterday with the sun... lost 2-3" so I can only imagine what will happen with temps just near 40 the next few days

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read what JB posts when hyping the cold with a grain of salt... he will throw out those -5 to -8 values without much discussion that -5 to -8 is closer to 40 degrees in march than 32 as similar values would be in february

1.6" here... despite temps only in 20s my snow pack did take a hit yesterday with the sun... lost 2-3" so I can only imagine what will happen with temps just near 40 the next few days

Guys in the Philly thread have 24"-26" snow depth and think they will have 18" left after this week. I think they are in for a shock...high dewpoints are a snow eater and they are going to lose a lot come Friday.

As you said, snow is disappearing now on sunny, relatively cold days with low dewpoints. I fully expect to be down to piles by Saturday. I currently have a 16" snow depth.

In 1996 I lost nearly 30" in one night.

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In 1996 I lost nearly 30" in one night.

 

 

What were your Temps that night? We lost most of ours in Bethlehem, but we were 55-60 when it happened. This week, per my NWS forecast, the highest temp is 48. I think I'll lose about half my snow, leaving me with probably 6-8 inches by the end of the warm-up.

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What were your Temps that night? We lost most of ours in Bethlehem, but we were 55-60 when it happened. This week, per my NWS forecast, the highest temp is 48. I think I'll lose about half my

snow, leaving me with probably 6-8 inches by the end of the warm-up.

I was in the mid 50s as well, combined with heavy rain and fog was just too much.

I currently have half the snowpack as I did back then. I will lose maybe 6" or so before Thursday night, perhaps more. I just think the combo of warmth, rain, and dews will kill it on Friday. We shall see...

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read what JB posts when hyping the cold with a grain of salt... he will throw out those -5 to -8 values without much discussion that -5 to -8 is closer to 40 degrees in march than 32 as similar values would be in february

 

1.6" here... despite temps only in 20s my snow pack did take a hit yesterday with the sun... lost 2-3" so I can only imagine what will happen with temps just near 40 the next few days

The Euro weeklies are not what you want to see if you want sunshine and posies, but if you want winter weather, then you're golden.

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So much for this being a bust. Really snowing at a good clip here and radar looks set for a couple more hours, at least. I'm surprised to see that, figured we'd be all but done here.

Yeah that band dropping ESE looks interesting, plus decent enhancement on PIT radar. Just over 2" so far here. 17.5" on the ground.

 

EDIT: From the Pittsburgh thread:

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

720 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

OHZ050-PAZ014-020>023-029-073-074-WVZ001-002-181530-

JEFFERSON OH-BUTLER-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-

WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STEUBENVILLE...BUTLER...BEAVER...

PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...INDIANA...WASHINGTON...

GREENSBURG...LATROBE...LIGONIER...DONEGAL...WEIRTON...BETHANY

720 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

...AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WITH THUNDER SNOW AT TIMES THIS MORNING...

A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WAS MOVING FROM NEAR

DOWNTOWN PITTSBURGH TO DUBOIS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL

CONTINUE BEHIND THIS BAND THROUGH 9 AM WITH SNOWFALL RATES OVER

ONE INCH PER HOUR. USE EXTRA CAUTION THIS MORNING

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So much for this being a bust. Really snowing at a good clip here and radar looks set for a couple more hours, at least. I'm surprised to see that, figured we'd be all but done here.

This last batch has been crazy here North of Pittsburgh. 1 inch per hour rates and many reports of thundersnow from Pittsburgh to Mercer.

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Guys in the Philly thread have 24"-26" snow depth and think they will have 18" left after this week. I think they are in for a shock...high dewpoints are a snow eater and they are going to lose a lot come Friday.

As you said, snow is disappearing now on sunny, relatively cold days with low dewpoints. I fully expect to be down to piles by Saturday. I currently have a 16" snow depth.

In 1996 I lost nearly 30" in one night.

it is going to melt quicker than many are expecting especially in philly/harrisburg region... I am expecting to lose most of mine mainly because my property is on a south facing hillside but I do still have at least an inch of ice right above the grass so we will see if that goes anywhere... we are at the point now where peak sun angle is increasing at about .3 - .4 degrees per day... doesnt mean we cant still have the cold and snow storms, but dry/somewhat warm weeks can really put a dent in non glacier piles... one thing I am interested to see is how the refreeze at night impacts melting... early last week it looked like we would have a few nights above 32... now not so much... may lose depth but could wind up with a very compacted 2-3" if it doesnt all melt

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So much for this being a bust. Really snowing at a good clip here and radar looks set for a couple more hours, at least. I'm surprised to see that, figured we'd be all but done here.

 

Apparently, holy cow I just woke up and measured 4.0" outside here and snowing at a decent rate. Could approach 5 or even 6 inches with that heavier imbedded band approaching. 

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Apparently, holy cow I just woke up and measured 4.0" outside here and snowing at a decent rate. Could approach 5 or even 6 inches with that heavier imbedded band approaching. 

 

Can confirm that band means business. My mom just called me freaking out about thndersnow and whiteout conditions. Says they have 4 inches so far.  

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