MAG5035 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Taking a bit of a detour to comment on the evening 0z models. Just amazing how this late week warm-up, which looked halfway impressive several days ago (or at least one that might last for a few days or so), has evolved into a 36 hour affair at best. Models in good agreement for a significant system riding into the western Great Lakes. The storm bombing out that quickly and far west leads me to think that precip amounts should be tempered and mainly associated with the cold front passage. Additionally, other than western PA west of the Laurels and probably some portion of the LSV... I find it hard pressed for even cracking 50 at the surface given marginal enough CAD and presence of a deep snowpack. Deep central PA back in UNV land might have trouble cracking 40 until the front's right on the doorstep. Really cold air coming back in behind the storm will probably be sluggish, so I think the weekend will still feature seasonal temps anyways. Later tomorrow and Wednesday should also feature seasonal temps as well. All the models get ridiculous out around D10 with the cold. The GFS and Canadian have -30C 850mb air lurking near PA and solid -20s for all the state. Pretty impressive for January standards, but VERY impressive when we're talking near the beginning of March. No notable storms on any of the major models out in that D6-10 range tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 One inch of new snow as of 4:30AM. Got woken up at about 2:30AM when a parade of fire trucks rolled through town. That ended up being a fire at our local WalMart, but when I looked out the window, we must have been in the middle of that "squall line" because it was snowing as hard as it did during round two of the 2/13 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I love winter, but I am ready for spring. This is not what I wanted to hear. Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 3h The ECWMF weeklies tonight give little hope for a warm Us March. As a matter of fact, they are brutal looking read what JB posts when hyping the cold with a grain of salt... he will throw out those -5 to -8 values without much discussion that -5 to -8 is closer to 40 degrees in march than 32 as similar values would be in february 1.6" here... despite temps only in 20s my snow pack did take a hit yesterday with the sun... lost 2-3" so I can only imagine what will happen with temps just near 40 the next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 18, 2014 Author Share Posted February 18, 2014 3.0" as of 6:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 read what JB posts when hyping the cold with a grain of salt... he will throw out those -5 to -8 values without much discussion that -5 to -8 is closer to 40 degrees in march than 32 as similar values would be in february 1.6" here... despite temps only in 20s my snow pack did take a hit yesterday with the sun... lost 2-3" so I can only imagine what will happen with temps just near 40 the next few days Guys in the Philly thread have 24"-26" snow depth and think they will have 18" left after this week. I think they are in for a shock...high dewpoints are a snow eater and they are going to lose a lot come Friday. As you said, snow is disappearing now on sunny, relatively cold days with low dewpoints. I fully expect to be down to piles by Saturday. I currently have a 16" snow depth. In 1996 I lost nearly 30" in one night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 In 1996 I lost nearly 30" in one night. What were your Temps that night? We lost most of ours in Bethlehem, but we were 55-60 when it happened. This week, per my NWS forecast, the highest temp is 48. I think I'll lose about half my snow, leaving me with probably 6-8 inches by the end of the warm-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 What were your Temps that night? We lost most of ours in Bethlehem, but we were 55-60 when it happened. This week, per my NWS forecast, the highest temp is 48. I think I'll lose about half my snow, leaving me with probably 6-8 inches by the end of the warm-up. I was in the mid 50s as well, combined with heavy rain and fog was just too much. I currently have half the snowpack as I did back then. I will lose maybe 6" or so before Thursday night, perhaps more. I just think the combo of warmth, rain, and dews will kill it on Friday. We shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Heavy snow in Bellefonte now. Closing in on 2" it appears. Roads are extremely slick. Timing with morning rush is not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 1.5" from 0.12" liquid. average snow depth is 12" Here the last 5" of snow is a very dense concrete like base which will be hard to melt. That 5" contains 1" liquid equiv. It was from the week we had the wet snow on monday followed by the ice/sleet storm on wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 read what JB posts when hyping the cold with a grain of salt... he will throw out those -5 to -8 values without much discussion that -5 to -8 is closer to 40 degrees in march than 32 as similar values would be in february 1.6" here... despite temps only in 20s my snow pack did take a hit yesterday with the sun... lost 2-3" so I can only imagine what will happen with temps just near 40 the next few days The Euro weeklies are not what you want to see if you want sunshine and posies, but if you want winter weather, then you're golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 So much for this being a bust. Really snowing at a good clip here and radar looks set for a couple more hours, at least. I'm surprised to see that, figured we'd be all but done here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 So much for this being a bust. Really snowing at a good clip here and radar looks set for a couple more hours, at least. I'm surprised to see that, figured we'd be all but done here. Yeah that band dropping ESE looks interesting, plus decent enhancement on PIT radar. Just over 2" so far here. 17.5" on the ground. EDIT: From the Pittsburgh thread: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 720 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014 OHZ050-PAZ014-020>023-029-073-074-WVZ001-002-181530- JEFFERSON OH-BUTLER-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON- WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STEUBENVILLE...BUTLER...BEAVER... PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...INDIANA...WASHINGTON... GREENSBURG...LATROBE...LIGONIER...DONEGAL...WEIRTON...BETHANY 720 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014 ...AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WITH THUNDER SNOW AT TIMES THIS MORNING... A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WAS MOVING FROM NEAR DOWNTOWN PITTSBURGH TO DUBOIS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THIS BAND THROUGH 9 AM WITH SNOWFALL RATES OVER ONE INCH PER HOUR. USE EXTRA CAUTION THIS MORNING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 So much for this being a bust. Really snowing at a good clip here and radar looks set for a couple more hours, at least. I'm surprised to see that, figured we'd be all but done here. This last batch has been crazy here North of Pittsburgh. 1 inch per hour rates and many reports of thundersnow from Pittsburgh to Mercer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 CTP dropped our advisory but then renewed it for 3-6" totals. Seems they were/are a little surprised at the last couple of hours as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMDEW80 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 do you guys think this band will make it across the state or just stay out west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Guys in the Philly thread have 24"-26" snow depth and think they will have 18" left after this week. I think they are in for a shock...high dewpoints are a snow eater and they are going to lose a lot come Friday. As you said, snow is disappearing now on sunny, relatively cold days with low dewpoints. I fully expect to be down to piles by Saturday. I currently have a 16" snow depth. In 1996 I lost nearly 30" in one night. it is going to melt quicker than many are expecting especially in philly/harrisburg region... I am expecting to lose most of mine mainly because my property is on a south facing hillside but I do still have at least an inch of ice right above the grass so we will see if that goes anywhere... we are at the point now where peak sun angle is increasing at about .3 - .4 degrees per day... doesnt mean we cant still have the cold and snow storms, but dry/somewhat warm weeks can really put a dent in non glacier piles... one thing I am interested to see is how the refreeze at night impacts melting... early last week it looked like we would have a few nights above 32... now not so much... may lose depth but could wind up with a very compacted 2-3" if it doesnt all melt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 So much for this being a bust. Really snowing at a good clip here and radar looks set for a couple more hours, at least. I'm surprised to see that, figured we'd be all but done here. Apparently, holy cow I just woke up and measured 4.0" outside here and snowing at a decent rate. Could approach 5 or even 6 inches with that heavier imbedded band approaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 KFIG reporting thundersnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Apparently, holy cow I just woke up and measured 4.0" outside here and snowing at a decent rate. Could approach 5 or even 6 inches with that heavier imbedded band approaching. Can confirm that band means business. My mom just called me freaking out about thndersnow and whiteout conditions. Says they have 4 inches so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Can confirm that band means business. My mom just called me freaking out about thndersnow and whiteout conditions. Says they have 4 inches so far. 3.1 here, snow band on doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Yeah, wow the lightning detection network is picking up a few strikes in central/western PA with that band as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Yeah, wow the lightning detection network is picking up a few strikes in central/western PA with that band as well. Just heard a rumble, snow starting to pick up. Wow. This is nuts. I'm home in Port MAtilda today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Is this feature going to hold over the mountains, or does it break up? So far, it looks to me like it's actually strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 About 2" here. Rain+ 50 on Friday will kill snow cover here completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I-99 whiteout per the PA511 cams. Heads up State College folks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 It's here, we're getting crushed. All we need now is that elusive thundersnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The snow here is just crazy. vis down 1/8, maybe lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Snow starting to pick up here. Visibility is starting to lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The snow here is just crazy. vis down 1/8, maybe lower. I was attempting to leave to go to a site for work but had to stop. Vis is 1/10mi here at best. No thunder so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Snow starting to pick up here. Visibility is starting to lower. Letting up a bit here, but man, that area of heavy snow behind it looks every bit as impressive and larger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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