EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 That's a lot of QPF. Plenty of snow for the lower parts of the valley. Most of that is rain or mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GGEM is strung out again, BUT comparing the 48 hour RGEM to the 48 hour GGEM, I think the RGEM was heading towards a better solution with the second wave. Its much more WSW to ENE oriented with the front and the wave is further north in the Miss Valley then the GGEM. usually the two are not far off where the "handoff" happens at 48 but this time there is a pretty substantial difference. The RGEM looks more like the older runs of the GFS and Euro that were good for PA. Below you can compare the 48 hour RGEM to the 49 hour GGEM to see what I mean.48RGEM.png49GGEM.png Usually it smoothly goes from RGEM to GGEM, but that is a big difference. CMC on it 's own again. Well it has the NAM, but ya NAM. NAVGEM still decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GEFS is north of OP. .5-.75" gets to UNV 1" line riding MD line.Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Geesh once again euro late night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Matt Moore doing a great job with this system there is no real final solution and mentions the potential that it could be but have time to work the details out. Love channel 8 way above the other local Harrisburg news channels with weather. Aw shucks. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GEFS quite a bit further north guys... Still time for tomorrow too... Bleeding has stopped at least. OPGEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GEFS quite a bit further north guys... Still time for tomorrow too... Bleeding has stopped at least. OP GEFS Thumbs up! You see the shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Aw shucks. Thanks! Your welcome great job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Thumbs up! You see the shift Yeahhhhhh buddy......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Come on Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Thumbs up! You see the shift what are the differences causing the shift? Is the fact that it is ensemble mean causing initial wave to appear weaker? anyone know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 what are the differences causing the shift? Is the fact that it is ensemble mean causing initial wave to appear weaker? anyone know? Just think it has wave two more northward. But won't know till ind come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Does anyone have JMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Does anyone have JMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Rally caps. You all heard it here first - Twelve. Zee. Tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Euro is south. UNV barely get any precip for either wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Rally caps. You all heard it here first - Twelve. Zee. Tomorrow. Or the euro will gut punch us. Never mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Is Euro really that bad? NYC thread seems alright for them... .5 up to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Is Euro really that bad? NYC thread seems alright for them... .5 up to NYC. NE PA gets .1" qpf or less. .5" touches the top of each of the southern tier counties. 1" line rides MD line. DC gets smoked with 12"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The Euro run was not bad for southern tier, but that was pretty bad for Harrisburg on North. The southern tier for York-LNS down to MD line still rolling 0.8 to 1.1 qpf on a tight gradient. The run was also colder overall. High ratio snows possible. Still need to check a bit closer at profiles to see, but southern areas still got hit pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 NE PA gets .1" qpf or less. .5" touches the top of each of the southern tier counties. 1" line rides MD line. DC gets smoked with 12"+ Thanks, hopefully Euro Ensembles are north... Still have some support in further north camp. We'll see how things go tomorrow. I like the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The Euro run was not bad for southern tier, but that was pretty bad for Harrisburg on North. The southern tier for York-LNS down to MD line still rolling 0.8 to 1.1 qpf on a tight gradient. The run was also colder overall. High ratio snows possible. Still need to check a bit closer at profiles to see, but southern areas still got hit pretty good Ya walking the tight rope. But, I think it will come a but more north by 50-75 miles by all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 NE PA gets .1" qpf or less. .5" touches the top of each of the southern tier counties. 1" line rides MD line. DC gets smoked with 12"+ I will say as a whole sub forum grand scheme of things, it wasn't a good run. If you go by zones though , there is no denying the southern tier still got hit pretty good and from quick glance, thermals look colder. Could be good snow ratios from better growth and omega values. Still a nice event. Don't forget southern stream systems are under forecasted qpf wise on the regular. And man is it cold afterwards. Holy **** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Ya walking the tight rope. But, I think it will come a but more north by 50-75 miles by all said and done.I agree. Always does. Every storm has. It will not take much. Besides, snow breeds snow. Watch for your typical winter 13-14 jackpot zones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 How high can ratios get in NEPA? Im in the 1.5-2.0" verbatim but im assuming (based on GEFS ensembles) this can still come a bit further north tomorrow... Possible for 15:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Guys come look at this joker posting how good S and S is on my page and saying how their map is better than mine. Someone come take this fool out. lol https://www.facebook.com/hwpcwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Guys come look at this joker posting how good S and S is on my page and saying how their map is better than mine. Someone come take this fool out. lol https://www.facebook.com/hwpcwx Lol at when he said they've been right all winter long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 How high can ratios get in NEPA? Im in the 1.5-2.0" verbatim but im assuming (based on GEFS ensembles) this can still come a bit further north tomorrow... Possible for 15:1?Looking at the run through the levels, your area could see 15:1 ratios at best. Your area is colder, but the intensity of the precip will be the question. The best dynamics will be further south toward MD line where cold and dynamics could push ratios closer to 20:1. Remember, cold is only one ingredient. Hope that helps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Well...all it takes is 50 miles. I'll remain adamant about it being 12z /if/ it happens. It did work out on the 2/3 and 2/13 events... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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