Blizz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 More so than 18z that's my point Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Better than 18Z. Hell i'll take 4-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 DC weenies jumping a bridge as this is warmer for them lol won't even read other forums Looks like they're celebrating to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Warmer? They do just fine.I jumped the gun looked warmer but didn't let the run finish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Looks like they're celebrating to me...Eastern shore needs to celebrate lol unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 50-75 miles more north with that batch please. Seeing how we usually shift a bit north at least minute I like where it is at now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Matt Moore doing a great job with this system there is no real final solution and mentions the potential that it could be but have time to work the details out. Love channel 8 way above the other local Harrisburg news channels with weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 S & S says they don't care what the models are doing and they are still saying 8-12" for the whole state pretty much and wan't fans to donate. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Just for comfort level EWAPA still sticking with 8-14" makes me smile and I need to go to bed lol no need to look at models they got it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I have a feeling this will eventually come back north that southern tier does well. the 6"+ is just south of the line right now. Once the models are done trending and get a better handle on the strength and track of the second wave then yes, it almost certainly will come north the last 24 hours. That is because models almost always under play the moisture transport up to the confluence for some reason, then expand the precip field at the end, they also tend to suppress southern stream systems too much and also overdo the confluence a bit. 90 percent of the time in a system like this the last 24-36 hours things will bleed north. The problem is (especially for those of us not right on the MD line) we need this to stop trending south NOW. It will come north a bit, maybe 50-75 miles, but its not going to jump 200 miles north with this type setup, so we cant have this sag into VA with the best snows or we are in trouble. Needing a slight shift north at the lasts minute is very likely, if we need it to shift from south of DC not gonna happen. I think the north trend starts later tomorrow so we need tonight and 12z to hold this thing withing striking distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 This is an example of the new stand your ground law even if you are wrong. I think that the storm moves north, just like most other storms. S&s and epawa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Rough guess here. I feel gfs is about right, but will come a bit north at the end. Low confidence in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If this does split, what a shame as this had/has the potential to be a truly historic event with 10"+ totals over a large area if it was more consolidated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Once the models are done trending and get a better handle on the strength and track of the second wave then yes, it almost certainly will come north the last 24 hours. That is because models almost always under play the moisture transport up to the confluence for some reason, then expand the precip field at the end, they also tend to suppress southern stream systems too much and also overdo the confluence a bit. 90 percent of the time in a system like this the last 24-36 hours things will bleed north. The problem is (especially for those of us not right on the MD line) we need this to stop trending south NOW. It will come north a bit, maybe 50-75 miles, but its not going to jump 200 miles north with this type setup, so we cant have this sag into VA with the best snows or we are in trouble. Needing a slight shift north at the lasts minute is very likely, if we need it to shift from south of DC not gonna happen. I think the north trend starts later tomorrow so we need tonight and 12z to hold this thing withing striking distance. Is there any reason why, if the models moved south so much so fast, that they can't do the same thing again north, thus putting us right back in the game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 UKMET rips the southern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 This is an example of the new stand your ground law even if you are wrong. I think that the storm moves north, just like most other storms. S&s and epawa... Right on...this will come back north and we'll get a decent storm.....the way this winters going I would bet theres still more to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 50-75 N from here and we are back in business.. 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 UKMET rips the southern tier. Dang that's great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Is there any reason why, if the models moved south so much so fast, that they can't do the same thing again north, thus putting us right back in the game? yes, the reason this shifted south is because instead of having a more consolidated system with only weak waves out in front of the main one, the models have started to split the energy into two waves. The first one goes north because it is out in front of the pressing cold high, but then that wave shifts the front south behind it and suppresses the second system. that change in how this evolves leads to the south trend. If that is correct, and there is a two wave scenario, there is only so far north the second one can go. There is a PV to the north pressing everything south and providing confluence to the north and the flow is fairly progressive, so this is not going to bomb and ride up into new england. If tomorrow the bullseye is just south of the PA border we can get that to shift north and be ok, but if this goes any further south then it has already we are probably out of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 UKMET rips the southern tier. Wow! If that came just a bit further north 50-75 miles it would be amazing for I-80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GGEM is strung out again, BUT comparing the 48 hour RGEM to the 48 hour GGEM, I think the RGEM was heading towards a better solution with the second wave. Its much more WSW to ENE oriented with the front and the wave is further north in the Miss Valley then the GGEM. usually the two are not far off where the "handoff" happens at 48 but this time there is a pretty substantial difference. The RGEM looks more like the older runs of the GFS and Euro that were good for PA. Below you can compare the 48 hour RGEM to the 49 hour GGEM to see what I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Wow! If that came just a bit further north 50-75 miles it would be amazing for I-80 It will...lets think positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GGEM is strung out again, BUT comparing the 48 hour RGEM to the 48 hour GGEM, I think the RGEM was heading towards a better solution with the second wave. Its much more WSW to ENE oriented with the front and the wave is further north in the Miss Valley then the GGEM. usually the two are not far off where the "handoff" happens at 48 but this time there is a pretty substantial difference. The RGEM looks more like the older runs of the GFS and Euro that were good for PA. Below you can compare the 48 hour RGEM to the 49 hour GGEM to see what I mean.48RGEM.png49GGEM.png Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 ? What are saying ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 ? What are saying ? Not saying anything. One thing I hate is when a map gets posted without any kind of commentary or caption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 ...SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN NEW ENGLANDTHIS WEEKEND......ARCTIC FRONT CROSSING THE MIDWEST AND DRAPING SOUTH ACROSS THEOHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC SUN AND MON...PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWFCONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Not saying anything. One thing I hate is when a map gets posted without any kind of commentary or caption. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Not saying anything. One thing I hate is when a map gets posted without any kind of commentary or caption. That's a lot of QPF. Plenty of snow for the lower parts of the valley. Would imply 6 inches from just north of Harrisburg to 12 for southern York and Lancaster, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GEFS is north of OP. .5-.75" gets to UNV 1" line riding MD line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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