2001kx Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 DT has his first guess out! 8-14" for all of Pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 6z gfs gets a warm layer all the way to 80. Gefs is even worse and prob implies mixing all the way into the northern tier but its just one run of an off hour gfs and the least accurate of the 4 gfs runs statistically also. Have to wait for 12z to see if it was onto something. Not sure I see it all the way to I-80...can you post some sleet soundings that you found for UNV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Anyone know the last time (if ever?) the entire state of PA had an event where every official reporting station had 6" or more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 Anyone know the last time (if ever?) the entire state of PA had an event where every official reporting station had 6" or more? I was wondering the same thing...Pa is ground zero as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Not sure I see it all the way to I-80...can you post some sleet soundings that you found for UNV? The warmest KABE (20-30 miles south of I-80) gets is close to freezing around 12z Monday on the 06z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 And here's the opening weenie map from CTP. I'll take it. StormTotalSnow.png Its gone now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM/GFS differences are comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 6z gfs gets a warm layer all the way to 80. Gefs is even worse and prob implies mixing all the way into the northern tier but its just one run of an off hour gfs and the least accurate of the 4 gfs runs statistically also. Have to wait for 12z to see if it was onto something. Looking at some Skew-T's on twister data it looked like everything was safely below freezing even as far south as Altoona... Once you got into the southern tier towards Shippensburg and Harrisburg there was definitely some sleet down there but still... Where are you concerned about sleet (at least verbatim from the 06z GFS)? Around UNV it looks plenty cold if you take it word for word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 What odd bedfellows we're seeing. NAM/Canadian/UKMET vs GFS/Euro So basically, we have the best and fourth best versus the second best, third best, and fifth best models (subjectively speaking ) its not a disaster but there is a lot of mixing south of 80 on 6z gfs but more importantly to me is if its the start of a bad trend. Gefs went way north at 6z compared to previous runs. Not sure I see it all the way to I-80...can you post some sleet soundings that you found for UNV? Yeah, I looked at that too. Definitely no mixing near I-80 per soundings Here's the warmest 6-hourly sounding from a grid point just SOUTHEAST of Lewistown (just southwest of Mifflintown). If that's the warmest it gets, there will be no mixing issues whatsoever anywhere near I-80, at least in central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 CTP on board: 00Z-06Z GFS AND THE 00Z EC ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AT THIS POINTIN TIME...PAINTING A WIDE SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THESTATE WITH 36-48 HOUR STORM TOTALS IN THE 6-10 INCH RANGE WITHPOCKETS OF NEAR 1 FOOT POSSIBLE IN SELECT UPSLOPE AREAS OR WITHINMESOSCALE CSI BANDS. SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THEFAR NORTH...AND ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE.WPC WWD SNOWFALL GRAPHICS EXTENDING THROUGH DAY 3 /AND ENDING AT 12ZMONDAY/ ALSO AGREE WITH THIS THINKING AND HAVE 6-10 INCH AMOUNTSCOVERING APPROX THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE BY THE PRIME MORNINGCOMMUTE MONDAY.DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP POLAR VORTEX JUST EAST OF HUDSONBAY...AND THE UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE FROM SRN ONTARIO TO NRN NEWENGLAND...THIS SRN STREAM UPPER WAVE WONT BE ABLE TO AMPLIFYMUCH...THUS EXPECT TO SEE A SHARP NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN SNOWFALLNEAR...OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM still has some random first wave, but it starting to get a clue with wave two. Pretty much just avoid that model at all cost. I wish NOAA would trash it. Hi NAM we hardly knew ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z NAM finally starting its march northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 What odd bedfellows we're seeing. NAM/Canadian/UKMET vs GFS/Euro Lol, it's basically a grouping of unreliable vs. reliable models, especially at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z NAM finally starting its march northward. Got a nice place for the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 06Z GFS WxBell snow map is a classic example of why they are bad. People thinking the GFS shows Lancaster County getting over a foot....good Lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 06Z GFS WxBell snow map is a classic example of why they are bad. People thinking the GFS shows Lancaster County getting over a foot....good Lord. yeah, thats pretty bad. Cobb sounding only had one 3hr period of pure snow for westminster, rest was a sleety/freezing rain disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Please don't let this be VD 2007 all over again. 2-4" of snow and 2-4" of sleet oh god how I hate sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Lol, it's basically a grouping of unreliable vs. reliable models, especially at this time range. I don't know, I wouldn't say Canadian or UKMET are any less reliable than the GFS (in fact, I'd argue that the UKMET is consistently more reliable). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Pittsburgh just hoisted watches for the majority of their CWA. Wouldn't be surprised to see CTP raise the flags this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 06Z GFS WxBell snow map is a classic example of why they are bad. People thinking the GFS shows Lancaster County getting over a foot....good Lord. Hey I am fully expecting that this is basically foreshadowing us getting 1-2 FT in Lancaster Cty. WOOOOOOOOOOOT! A snow hound can dream Perhaps unrealistic but I can always hope for more rather than less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Hey I am fully expecting that this is basically foreshadowing us getting 1-2 FT in Lancaster Cty. WOOOOOOOOOOOT! A snow hound can dream Perhaps unrealistic but I can always hope for more rather than less. no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Pittsburgh just hoisted watches for the majority of their CWA. Wouldn't be surprised to see CTP raise the flags this evening. If the deadly GFS and somewhat consistent ECMWF stay steady throughout the day, then it wouldn't surprise me. 8-12" is definitely a great call by CTP for now. Not too concerned about sleet given how dense and cold this airmass will be. Once the hi-res models get into their deadly range, I think we'll see some weak CAD signatures that could save the southern areas near the M/D line. The 12z GFS already hinted at this yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Since CTP has their snow map down right now, I'd argue they are working on making a new snow map that is congruent with PBZ and maybe evening queuing up a watch once the 12z EURO comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GFS should be south the run. High is stronger and 850 line sinking quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I'm not sure what models ABC 27 is using, but they seem to be emphasizing the mixing aspect of the storm. They don't seem bullish on a major storm for Harrisburg at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GFS so far looking good no real changes from 0z at least what I am seeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 850 line in central MD at 6Z Sunday night. Compared to over Shippenburg last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 A little breathing room can't hurt. GFS sounds like it's going to be a bit south/colder than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Quite a bit south, actually. Worried about the trend towards the UKMET/Canadian. Hopefully the 12z Euro holds steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 850 line in central MD at 6Z Sunday night. Compared to over Shippenburg last run. it did come south comparing the 0z run from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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