EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 CTP must be looking at something that we don't have access to. GFS and ECMWF both nail the southern regions with the most snow. Ah well. Looks like they'll be playing catch-up the entire time. They use GEFS at this range all the time, which is still north of OP and euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 They use GEFS at this range all the time, which is still north of OP and euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 28, 2014 Author Share Posted February 28, 2014 Not sure what CTP is looking at. GFS and ECMWF both nail the southern regions with the most snow. Even their precious GFS ens are a crush-job north of the M/D line. Ah well. Looks like they'll be playing catch-up the entire time. Why?Were still 3 days away and nothing is set in stone yet... Also schools are on a two hour delay tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 gfs-ens_apcpn_us_24.png 850 line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 From Tombo over on PhillyWx on Euro weeklies: "My weeklies aren't updating for some reason yet. But from what I have heard they lock the trof in the east pretty much the whole month." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 850 line 18z GFS-ENS-BC looks pretty impressive. Anyway, system is bombing out off of California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 From Tombo over on PhillyWx on Euro weeklies: "My weeklies aren't updating for some reason yet. But from what I have heard they lock the trof in the east pretty much the whole month." Ya it's cold. We are talking 20 degrees below normal on average for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 18z GFS-ENS-BC looks pretty impressive. Anyway, system is bombing out off of California. grearth 2014-02-27 20-43-16-36.png Looks like one of those classic coast to coast bowling ball storms. Whatever latitude the low rolls in at on the west coast is likely around where it's going to be exiting the east coast at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Ya it's cold. We are talking 20 degrees below normal on average for the month. Pathetic. For the first time in my life I've had to use the credit card to buy oil instead of using a check. I've had to fill-up nearly twice as often as usual, meaing instead of paying $600 every 2 months, this year it's been $600 each month. I mean really...this HAS to break at some point, doesn't it? I can't afford much more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This truck was in Clarion County somewhere. Be interesting to see what it looks like when they recover it. Even hate to think about dealing with all this ice from all the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM looks pretty clueless as usual. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 6.5 here...sheesh. I had previously read a few weeks ago, I think it was Paul Pastelok from AccuWx speculating on the impact of the primarily frozen lakes with regards to our low temps which I def agree with. Basically with the lakes virtually frozen over (88% as of mid February), we're seeing little to no modification of these cold air masses from Canada... and thus our temperatures have been diving below zero on a regular basis this winter. Makes me wonder what kind of temps we see in the wake of this coming storm if it lays down a fresh deep snow pack. Those insane low temps the GFS has cranked out from time to time might not be that far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM has some random first wave sunday afternoon thats rain then looks like it would miss south with round 2. What a crappy model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM looks pretty clueless as usual. lol.They need to turn that model off it is so west no clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I just had to wal 8 blocks. Holy mother of god IT IS COLD. And the wind blowing 20+ doesn't exactly warm things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 They need to turn that model off it is so west no clue It is pure trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Ah nam is the nam. It has it's value but that is limited to 24 hrs before game time. Even then it's still the nam lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The NAM never ceases to amaze me... We would all be hugging it ATM though if it showed wave 1 a bit colder/se and wave 2 further north... But I dont think you can get both. GGEM from a few days ago maybe would be a "perfect storm"...Either way not taking it seriously unless GFS looks similar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I had previously read a few weeks ago, I think it was Paul Pastelok from AccuWx speculating on the impact of the primarily frozen lakes with regards to our low temps which I def agree with. Basically with the lakes virtually frozen over (88% as of mid February), we're seeing little to no modification of these cold air masses from Canada... and thus our temperatures have been diving below zero on a regular basis this winter. Makes me wonder what kind of temps we see in the wake of this coming storm if it lays down a fresh deep snow pack. Those insane low temps the GFS has cranked out from time to time might not be that far off. One solid night of radiational cooling next week and we might have a shot. What's the coldest temp State College has ever recorded in March? Currently 4° and windy here...really awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The NAM never ceases to amaze me... We would all be hugging it ATM though if it showed wave 1 a bit colder/se and wave 2 further north... But I dont think you can get both. GGEM from a few days ago maybe would be a "perfect storm"... Either way not taking it seriously unless GFS looks similar... Qpf always overdone doesn't matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I just had to wal 8 blocks. Holy mother of god IT IS COLD. And the wind blowing 20+ doesn't exactly warm things up. I was walking around midtown earlier as well. I swear it feels colder out there tonight than during the January outbreaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Looks like one of those classic coast to coast bowling ball storms. Whatever latitude the low rolls in at on the west coast is likely around where it's going to be exiting the east coast at. I guess right now it looks like it exits at Newport News? I had previously read a few weeks ago, I think it was Paul Pastelok from AccuWx speculating on the impact of the primarily frozen lakes with regards to our low temps which I def agree with. Basically with the lakes virtually frozen over (88% as of mid February), we're seeing little to no modification of these cold air masses from Canada... and thus our temperatures have been diving below zero on a regular basis this winter. Makes me wonder what kind of temps we see in the wake of this coming storm if it lays down a fresh deep snow pack. Those insane low temps the GFS has cranked out from time to time might not be that far off. It's freaking 2.8 at 10:05 pm on Feb 27...crazy stuff. I heard that about the lake's temp effect. I've also heard that it could make it colder in spring because the ice will be slower to go away. I mean, Erie is going to be next to a giant icebox for a while this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Isn't anyone the slightest bit concerned that a usually amped model is so far south? My worry with this has been suppression right from the start, and the trend right now is south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Isn't anyone the slightest bit concerned that a usually amped model is so far south? My worry with this has been suppression right from the start, and the trend right now is south. The NAM? No. It takes too much energy with it amped Sunday afternoon and screws up storm two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The NAM? No. It takes too much energy with it amped Sunday afternoon and screws up storm two. I dunno...whereas I had a good feeling with the 2/13 event...I have a bad feeling this time. You guys might be good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Cant wait to see this lets take some bets, they will have 15 to 20 inches. S&S Storm Chasing and Forecasting Team3 hours ago We expect to have our first call map out by 11 p.m. For this weekend's storm. #Brad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Cant wait to see this lets take some bets, they will have 15 to 20 inches. S&S Storm Chasing and Forecasting Team 3 hours ago We expect to have our first call map out by 11 p.m. For this weekend's storm. #Brad Say what you will but they have been pretty spit on this winter. Like it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Continuing to bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 12 inches and I'm happy, good enough to call it a winter and root on spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GFS looking like the euro. Southern tier getting smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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