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Central PA & The Fringes - February 2014 Pt. VI


2001kx

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There is still a good chance of having a sizeable snowfall here on Monday next week.  Most certainly we'll have enough snow to shovel and plow but this event may not turn out to be a crippling snowfall.  In fact one of our more reliable computer model know as the European model has really backed off on projected snowfall totals here on Monday. The heaviest snow still appears likely over southern PA with much less snow  across northern PA.  My preliminary forecast is for us to have 5" to 10" north to south. 

 

- WNEP

 

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Once again Tom Russell on WHP-TV is the first Harrisburg TV met to call snow amounts. He's going with 4-6 inches. We was the first to call out 12+ in the last storm.

 

The best part isn't his map, but the explination behind it, and I quote..."It takes a lot to get snow to accumulate in March as ground is warmer, sun angle is higher. So it will be tough to get accumulating snow early on Monday but the storm will win out by Monday afternoon and accumulate 4-6".

 

Seriously? The ground is warmer? What rock did he crawl out from under?

 

There is still a good chance of having a sizeable snowfall here on Monday next week.  Most certainly we'll have enough snow to shovel and plow but this event may not turn out to be a crippling snowfall.  In fact one of our more reliable computer model know as the European model has really backed off on projected snowfall totals here on Monday. The heaviest snow still appears likely over southern PA with much less snow  across northern PA.  My preliminary forecast is for us to have 5" to 10" north to south. 

 

- WNEP

 

So one Euro run and they back off on snow totals. They are one of the most conservative stations around, so it's no surprise there. I wonder what he does if the Euro comes back north and buries Central and NEPA?

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just got back from McConnellsburg traveling 30 and I-99.....lots of slick spots here and there, especially on I-99 between Claysburg and Altoona....with the squalls and the winds coming across the roads makes them ice up quickly....number of spots you could feel the wheels slide....anyone traveling in these areas be careful

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Not sure what CTP is looking at. GFS and ECMWF both nail the southern regions with the most snow. Even their precious GFS ens are a crush-job north of the M/D line. 

 

Ah well. Looks like they'll be playing catch-up the entire time. 

 

 

 

. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN
A SIGNIFICANT BOUT OF WINTRY PRECIP FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS PLUME OF GULF OF MEX MOISTURE OVERRUNS A
QUASI-STATIONARY BNDRY JUST S OF THE MASON DIXON. BOTH GEFS AND
OPER EC/CMC CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A NARROW SWATH OF
GREATER THAN AN INCH PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PA...MAYBE
SLIDING JUST A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREV RUNS. BEST CHC FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW APPEARS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL/PARTS OF NORTHERN
PA...WITH A GREATER
CHC OF A WINTRY MIX OR EVEN A PERIOD OF RAIN
IN THE SOUTH /AND MUCH LOWER SNOW
ACCUMS/
...BEFORE COLDER AIR
AT LOWER LEVELS BEGINS TO SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTH TOWARD THE END
OF THE EVENT BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO END AS A PERIOD
OF SNOW ON MONDAY.
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