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Central PA & The Fringes - February 2014 Pt. VI


2001kx

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That's a pretty big shift in the Euro. After tracking to TN/NC border, it gets squashed all the way to the NC coastline and east from there.  ..thus taking portions of CNE/SNE from snow bomb to fringe job and suddenly putting DC and northern VA back in the ballgame. 

 

Euro/GGEM have this more two pronged approach with an inital slug of precip out ahead of the main batch vs the GFS of today which has precip coming solidly with no break. GGEM had mixing issues with the first batch in southern PA while Euro is now colder and introduces little to no precip issues for the commonwealth. Seemed like Pittsburgh and western PA got hit better with the first batch on the Euro. 

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That's a pretty big shift in the Euro. After tracking to TN/NC border, it gets squashed all the way to the NC coastline and east from there.  ..thus taking portions of CNE/SNE from snow bomb to fringe job and suddenly putting DC and northern VA back in the ballgame. 

 

Euro/GGEM have this more two pronged approach with an inital slug of precip out ahead of the main batch vs the GFS of today which has precip coming solidly with no break. GGEM had mixing issues with the first batch in southern PA while Euro is now colder and introduces little to no precip issues for the commonwealth. Seemed like Pittsburgh and western PA got hit better with the first batch on the Euro. 

Could it be shoved even further south? What's you thinking? 

 

Sort of has a PD II vibe to it. 

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Wow. Just saw the Euro. That's an epic snow bomb for the areas already been crushed this winter. The PV placement is much better this run for an all out snow storm. Even CPA gets in on the action with this run. The moisture pulling northward across this storm is amazing. Getting precip will be the least of the concerns. Zak's map showing 100% chance of weather last night is looking pretty legit :D

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Could it be shoved even further south? What's you thinking? 

 

Sort of has a PD II vibe to it. 

 

It certainly has the look of a very cold storm like that one was, that's for sure. This is kind of a straightforward threat when it comes down to it, imo. There almost definitely will be a storm crossing the country, and where this frontal boundary sets up its going to dictate where the swath of heavy snow goes. With the PV and the strength of the cold air, I was already leaning away from the warmer Euro solution.. but wasn't expecting it to shift as much as it did today. The cold air will likely win in at least most of our area as it generally has all winter long but with it being March the warm air down south should put up a fight to a point, so I don't buy complete suppression. Basically I don't think we get out of this without at least a decent event. 

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