paweather Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Euro is a bit south. I am liking the GGEM/GFS combo for this one.Yes looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Yes looks good Euro still only model that far north with 850's and precip. Think it is out of line right now. All other models in solid agreement. GGEM/GFS/UKMET/NAVGEM all look similar. Thinking ice/snow south and a good snow north is becoming a decent threat. By Friday we will have a much better idea. Night all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Euro still only model that far north with 850's and precip. Think it is out of line right now. All other models in solid agreement. GGEM/GFS/UKMET/NAVGEM all look similar. Thinking ice/snow south and a good snow north is becoming a decent threat. By Friday we will have a much better idea. Night all.Long prolonged event should be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Euro is a bit south. I am liking the GGEM/GFS combo for this one. Yea fairly similar to 12z but just a little bit cooler, specifically for the 114hr frame where the 850 0 line is further southeast, residing more near the mason dixon line in the Sus Valley vs the 12z run at 126h which was maybe a hair nw of 0z with the low and thus having the 0 line up into the Sus Valley more. Previous frames had 850 temps close to where 12z was. I think a blend of op and ensemble guidance should yield a pretty solid consensus for the time being. For now I think the primary mix threat in PA will be in the form of sleet but if the EC's warmer 850 temps were to come to fruition i'd have to be more concerned for zr along the southern tier. The snow swath with this should be pretty sizeable but probably not ridiculous... i.e a widespread 18-24" swath or something like that...although the long duration aspect of this could play into some folks getting big totals. I guess if one were to put a gun to my head for accumulations at this point (and trust me, that would be what it would take to mention outside of this forum haha), i'd say a general swath of 8-12" could be possible on a corridor just north of where the mixing line ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Yea fairly similar to 12z but just a little bit cooler, specifically for the 114hr frame where the 850 0 line is further southeast, residing more near the mason dixon line in the Sus Valley vs the 12z run at 126h which was maybe a hair nw of 0z with the low and thus having the 0 line up into the Sus Valley more. Previous frames had 850 temps close to where 12z was. I think a blend of op and ensemble guidance should yield a pretty solid consensus for the time being. For now I think the primary mix threat in PA will be in the form of sleet but if the EC's warmer 850 temps were to come to fruition i'd have to be more concerned for zr along the southern tier. The snow swath with this should be pretty sizeable but probably not ridiculous... i.e a widespread 18-24" swath or something like that...although the long duration aspect of this could play into some folks getting big totals. I guess if one were to put a gun to my head for accumulations at this point (and trust me, that would be what it would take to mention outside of this forum haha), i'd say a general swath of 8-12" could be possible on a corridor just north of where the mixing line ends up. I'm not sure if limit it to 8-12... I mean the Euro had more than 1.5 inches QPF at UNV for example... Granted there's probably at least some sleet, but this run was definitely cooler than 12z from what I gathered. It wouldn't surprise me if there's a fairly widespread area of 12+... Where that sets up is yet to be determined, but it wouldn't surprise me if that's the case... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lsv Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I have my 12 gauge out. No ice for me in Hummelstown. Correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 doesn't it look like the 0 line is farther in maryland? Which means that snow/sleet line would be below the pa/md line? I had 9 this morning, cold, but i thought it would be colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Temperatures are crazy cold following the storm even for January standards. (GFS showing -10's with some isolated -20's) Im not sure what is going on with the GFS and temperatures right now... 12z run yesterday had below 0 temps late evening last night for MDT and ended up off by about 20 degrees... even 6z run this morning has a low of -9 for tomorrow morning for MDT and -14 next Thursday... record low for March 6 is +7... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 6Z GFS was significantly colder. Mainly snow for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 To those wishing for a pile of snow Monday here you go. Joe Bastardi is liking our chances for snow. https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/438993438147502080/photo/1/large?utm_source=fb&utm_medium=fb&utm_campaign=BigJoeBastardi&utm_content=438993438147502080 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Aleeet aleet weenie alert USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Aleeet aleet weenie alert USA. gfs.jpg So everyone should post this on FB and say Zak made his forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I cant find any good webcams but if anyone can take a look at the sqall over erie right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 For those who don't know CM, basically this run was 12"+ for all of PA. If that happened would be pretty sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 So because I'm not working for a few weeks, I'd welcome 35" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 So because I'm not working for a few weeks, I'd welcome 35" of snow. That's CM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I cant find any good webcams but if anyone can take a look at the sqall over erie right now the penndot cam is down too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 That's CM I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 So because I'm not working for a few weeks, I'd welcome 35" of snow. That's CM The 0Z Euro seems to imply it's a little possible. There are three significant winter storm threats on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The 0Z Euro seems to imply it's a little possible. There are three significant winter storm threats on that run. Oy vey... If I get this golf course assistant superintendent's position that I had a second interview for this morning. I may just be able to see the grass on the course by May... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Oy vey... If I get this golf course assistant superintendent's position that I had a second interview for this morning. I may just be able to see the grass on the course by May... At least it won't have to be cut for a while. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 At least it won't have to be cut for a while. lol i miss cutting grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 i miss cutting grass Cutting grass sucks. Allergic to that crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Cutting grass sucks. Allergic to that crap. the smell of fresh cut grass is like...like......i can't even describe it. I like so much i cut my neighbors, the Firehouse lawn, plus 2 large lots the fire company owns! i have a sickness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 the smell of fresh cut grass is like...like......i can't even describe it. I like so much i cut my neighbors, the Firehouse lawn, plus 2 large lots the fire company owns! i have a sickness Sounds like me. I'd mow all my neighbor's lawns if I could. As for the golf course, there's nothing like cruising a fairway on a 5 gang Jacobsen first thing in the morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Sounds like me. I'd mow all my neighbor's lawns if I could. As for the golf course, there's nothing like cruising a fairway on a 5 gang Jacobsen first thing in the morning! The parent company of my employer also owns Jacobsen. Need a discount? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Here comes the squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 12Z GFS blows the doors off 12"+ for most except MD line to about 25miles north gets 6-8" with a good amount of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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