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Central PA & The Fringes - February 2014 Pt. VI


2001kx

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Yes looks good

 

Euro still only model that far north with 850's and precip. Think it is out of line right now. All other models in solid agreement. GGEM/GFS/UKMET/NAVGEM all look similar. Thinking ice/snow south and a good snow north is becoming a decent threat. By Friday we will have a much better idea. Night all. 

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Euro still only model that far north with 850's and precip. Think it is out of line right now. All other models in solid agreement. GGEM/GFS/UKMET/NAVGEM all look similar. Thinking ice/snow south and a good snow north is becoming a decent threat. By Friday we will have a much better idea. Night all.

Long prolonged event should be fun
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Euro is a bit south. I am liking the GGEM/GFS combo for this one. 

 

Yea fairly similar to 12z but just a little bit cooler, specifically for the 114hr frame where the 850 0 line is further southeast, residing more near the mason dixon line in the Sus Valley vs the 12z run at 126h which was maybe a hair nw of 0z with the low and thus having the 0 line up into the Sus Valley more. Previous frames had 850 temps close to where 12z was. I think a blend of op and ensemble guidance should yield a pretty solid consensus for the time being. For now I think the primary mix threat in PA will be in the form of sleet but if the EC's warmer 850 temps were to come to fruition i'd have to be more concerned for zr along the southern tier. 

 

The snow swath with this should be pretty sizeable but probably not ridiculous... i.e a widespread 18-24" swath or something like that...although the long duration aspect of this could play into some folks getting big totals. I guess if one were to put a gun to my head for accumulations at this point (and trust me, that would be what it would take to mention outside of this forum haha), i'd say a general swath of 8-12" could be possible on a corridor just north of where the mixing line ends up. 

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Yea fairly similar to 12z but just a little bit cooler, specifically for the 114hr frame where the 850 0 line is further southeast, residing more near the mason dixon line in the Sus Valley vs the 12z run at 126h which was maybe a hair nw of 0z with the low and thus having the 0 line up into the Sus Valley more. Previous frames had 850 temps close to where 12z was. I think a blend of op and ensemble guidance should yield a pretty solid consensus for the time being. For now I think the primary mix threat in PA will be in the form of sleet but if the EC's warmer 850 temps were to come to fruition i'd have to be more concerned for zr along the southern tier.

The snow swath with this should be pretty sizeable but probably not ridiculous... i.e a widespread 18-24" swath or something like that...although the long duration aspect of this could play into some folks getting big totals. I guess if one were to put a gun to my head for accumulations at this point (and trust me, that would be what it would take to mention outside of this forum haha), i'd say a general swath of 8-12" could be possible on a corridor just north of where the mixing line ends up.

I'm not sure if limit it to 8-12... I mean the Euro had more than 1.5 inches QPF at UNV for example... Granted there's probably at least some sleet, but this run was definitely cooler than 12z from what I gathered.

It wouldn't surprise me if there's a fairly widespread area of 12+... Where that sets up is yet to be determined, but it wouldn't surprise me if that's the case...

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Temperatures are crazy cold following the storm even for January standards. (GFS showing -10's with some isolated -20's)

 

gfs_t2min_ne_59_zps9fad1716.png

Im not sure what is going on with the GFS and temperatures right now... 12z run yesterday had below 0 temps late evening last night for MDT and ended up off by about 20 degrees... even 6z run this morning has a low of -9 for tomorrow morning for MDT and -14 next Thursday... record low for March 6 is +7...

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The 0Z Euro seems to imply it's a little possible. There are three significant winter storm threats on that run. 

 

Oy vey... If I get this golf course assistant superintendent's position that I had a second interview for this morning. I may just be able to see the grass on the course by May...

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the smell of fresh cut grass is like...like......i can't even describe it. I like so much i cut my neighbors, the Firehouse lawn, plus 2 large lots the fire company owns!

 

i have a sickness

 

Sounds like me. I'd mow all my neighbor's lawns if I could. As for the golf course, there's nothing like cruising a fairway on a 5 gang Jacobsen first thing in the morning!

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