Voyager Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 That's a depressing run of the gfs if anyone is hoping for spring. Central PA doesn't sniff 40 degrees until March 14th according to the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Central PA doesn't sniff 40 degrees until March 14th according to the 12z GFS and that is without factoring in what we will actually see in terms of snow cover prior to then if this event next week pans out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 That's a depressing run of the gfs if anyone is hoping for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 GGEM pretty similar to GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Great vid Big Jim!! Btw, I still haven't acclimated to the PA cold and wind.Thanks, it takes your breath away walking outside. It even teased me driving homeSunday. Was 72 all the way to northern Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 12z run of Euro is warm for many of us as in def p-type issues... brings energy further north than 0z run did... once again now to wait and see if ensembles support that or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Euro mainly rain for southern tier snow north. Hope it stays that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 GFS and CMC have nearly the same solution and UKMET is more south as well. Could be a classic case of Euro amping too much. As usual we won't have a clue on this system for another few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Take a blend of the two camps and solution is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 euro is a disaster run for snow for anyone except the northern tier counties, but its just one run of the op, wouldn't worry much about it. Wait for EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 euro is a disaster run for snow for anyone except the northern tier counties, but its just one run of the op, wouldn't worry much about it. Wait for EPS i agree... it went warm for one run a few days ago as well with ensemble mean much colder... whole run is warm and spring-like... complete opposite of GFS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 euro is a disaster run for snow for anyone except the northern tier counties, but its just one run of the op, wouldn't worry much about it. Wait for EPS It's right on the borderline even up into here. Here's UNV: SAT 18Z 01-MAR 0.9 -4.6 1023 71 87 0.01 556 538 SUN 00Z 02-MAR 1.2 -3.2 1021 89 62 0.01 560 543 SUN 06Z 02-MAR 0.9 -2.2 1020 93 46 0.01 560 544 SUN 12Z 02-MAR 0.8 -2.2 1020 96 90 0.03 560 544 SUN 18Z 02-MAR 1.4 -2.6 1021 87 98 0.05 560 544 MON 00Z 03-MAR -1.3 -0.8 1020 95 97 0.28 560 544 MON 06Z 03-MAR -2.6 0.4 1016 96 99 0.22 558 545 MON 12Z 03-MAR -3.5 0.1 1011 94 100 0.27 554 545 MON 18Z 03-MAR -5.7 -4.4 1010 83 99 0.48 547 540 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 So I'm guessing we would want the Euro a bit south for the best snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 btw no one from UNV should look at the WxBell snow maps. I bet they show UNV getting 12+ and I bet there's a sneaky warm layer in there somewhere that makes some of what falls sleet or freezing rain. Well, I meant especially in this case. If you take WxBell snow maps seriously I hope your parents are visited by Dr. Who just in time to stop them from conceiving your stupid ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 For posterity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Euro likely too amped. All other models have the low going somewhere between northern NC and SE VA. Not northern VA like the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Euro likely too amped. All other models have the low going somewhere between northern NC and SE VA. Not northern VA like the euro. not necessarily too amped but this run doesn't push the front as far south from the system tracking north of the Great Lakes early Sunday... we need that boundary to set up south of PA so that the moisture/energy slide along it just to our south and not overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 As mentioned on the Mid-Atlantic forum by HM was the depiction of the PV on the Euro. Unlike all the other model runs, the Euro places the PV into Western Canada. If that happened, pretty much all winter weather for metro regions would be null and void. The ensembles will give us a hint as to whether the Euro was onto something or if it was a hiccup. We've all seen the Euro do this stuff before. I don't know what it is with that model, but sometime between 60 to 120 hours before an event, it kind of loses sight of it (unless it's a monster). Basically the stage we're in now is the wait and see phase. Once these players get sampled, then the real game begins. It's like trying to predict what's going to happen in the 5th inning when you're still in the 2nd. Batter up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 ENS are not in agreement with OP...further south and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Ensemble mean is colder than operational run... but still produces mixing issues for far southern pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Ensemble mean is colder than operational run... but still produces mixing issues for far southern pa south, meaning us, or south meaning Shrewsberry South? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Ensemble mean is colder than operational run... but still produces mixing issues for far southern pa Beat me too it! :-) Ensemble mean looks more like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 south, meaning us, or south meaning Shrewsberry South? I cant see any levels other than 850mb temps right now so not sure if there is a warm layer as north as us... 0C 850mb line runs closer to Shrewsberry than Harrisburg... maybe closer to turnpike... but it is warmer than the 0z ensemble mean by a hair for what it is worth at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Wow, sneak squall event on the way tomorrow?? Check out the instability!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racinghy Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 That's a depressing run of the gfs if anyone is hoping for spring. Hey, any word on the models for the early march storm on how much the eastern side of central PA is projected to get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Hey, any word on the models for the early march storm on how much the eastern side of central PA is projected to get? Welcome.........look around, thats what they are discussing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Welcome racinghy....hope you enjoy it here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Wow, sneak squall event on the way tomorrow?? Check out the instability!! Yeah...been thinking the same thing. Radar watching tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racinghy Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Welcome racinghy....hope you enjoy it here! Welcome.........look around, thats what they are discussing! Thanks guys! I can tell you I already am enjoying it here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Hey, any word on the models for the early march storm on how much the eastern side of central PA is projected to get?Welcome! I'm no met, but I think it's a little early to start throwing out numbers. Anything discussed right now is just done so for discussion sake. Once the players start being sampled we'll have a better idea.Eric horse said that this type of setup is notoriously difficult fir both Mets and models outside of 60-72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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