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Central PA & The Fringes - February 2014 Pt. VI


2001kx

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euro is a disaster run for snow for anyone except the northern tier counties, but its just one run of the op, wouldn't worry much about it.  Wait for EPS

i agree... it went warm for one run a few days ago as well with ensemble mean much colder... whole run is warm and spring-like... complete opposite of GFS lol

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euro is a disaster run for snow for anyone except the northern tier counties, but its just one run of the op, wouldn't worry much about it.  Wait for EPS

It's right on the borderline even up into here. 

 

Here's UNV: 

 

SAT 18Z 01-MAR 0.9 -4.6 1023 71 87 0.01 556 538

SUN 00Z 02-MAR 1.2 -3.2 1021 89 62 0.01 560 543

SUN 06Z 02-MAR 0.9 -2.2 1020 93 46 0.01 560 544

SUN 12Z 02-MAR 0.8 -2.2 1020 96 90 0.03 560 544

SUN 18Z 02-MAR 1.4 -2.6 1021 87 98 0.05 560 544

MON 00Z 03-MAR -1.3 -0.8 1020 95 97 0.28 560 544

MON 06Z 03-MAR -2.6 0.4 1016 96 99 0.22 558 545

MON 12Z 03-MAR -3.5 0.1 1011 94 100 0.27 554 545

MON 18Z 03-MAR -5.7 -4.4 1010 83 99 0.48 547 540 

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btw no one from UNV should look at the WxBell snow maps. I bet they show UNV getting 12+ and I bet there's a sneaky warm layer in there somewhere that makes some of what falls sleet or freezing rain. 

 

Well, I meant especially in this case. If you take WxBell snow maps seriously I hope your parents are visited by Dr. Who just in time to stop them from conceiving your stupid ass. 

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Euro likely too amped. All other models have the low going somewhere between northern NC and SE VA. Not northern VA like the euro. 

not necessarily too amped but this run doesn't push the front as far south from the system tracking north of the Great Lakes early Sunday... we need that boundary to set up south of PA so that the moisture/energy slide along it just to our south and not overhead

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As mentioned on the Mid-Atlantic forum by HM was the depiction of the PV on the Euro. Unlike all the other model runs, the Euro places the PV into Western Canada. If that happened, pretty much all winter weather for metro regions would be null and void. The ensembles will give us a hint as to whether the Euro was onto something or if it was a hiccup. We've all seen the Euro do this stuff before. I don't know what it is with that model, but sometime between 60 to 120 hours before an event, it kind of loses sight of it (unless it's a monster). Basically the stage we're in now is the wait and see phase. Once these players get sampled, then the real game begins. It's like trying to predict what's going to happen in the 5th inning when you're still in the 2nd. Batter up

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south, meaning us, or south meaning Shrewsberry South?

I cant see any levels other than 850mb temps right now so not sure if there is a warm layer as north as us... 0C 850mb line runs closer to Shrewsberry than Harrisburg... maybe closer to turnpike... but it is warmer than the 0z ensemble mean by a hair for what it is worth at this range

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Hey, any word on the models for the early march storm on how much the eastern side of central PA is projected to get?

Welcome! I'm no met, but I think it's a little early to start throwing out numbers. Anything discussed right now is just done so for discussion sake. Once the players start being sampled we'll have a better idea.

Eric horse said that this type of setup is notoriously difficult fir both Mets and models outside of 60-72 hours.

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