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Central PA & The Fringes - February 2014 Pt. VI


2001kx

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Two particular meteorologists at AccuWx not exactly known for either hype nor love of cold/snow are pretty bullish this morning about a snowstorm next week, Paul Pastelok and Joe Lundberg.

Nice. I love that our torch week has turned into 3-4 days in the low-mid 40s. That's barely going to put a dent in this snowpack.

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Two particular meteorologists at AccuWx not exactly known for either hype nor love of cold/snow are pretty bullish this morning about a snowstorm next week, Paul Pastelok and Joe Lundberg.

Yep! Lundberg certainly doesn't hype, and for him to talk about an event over a week away speaks volumes about the potential next week.

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Nice. I love that our torch week has turned into 3-4 days in the low-mid 40s. That's barely going to put a dent in this snowpack.

 

 

Yep! Lundberg certainly doesn't hype, and for him to talk about an event over a week away speaks volumes about the potential next week.

And not only that, here's the Euro for next week for people who hate winter:

 

 

It brings 500 thicknesses right on us late next week and another arctic shot lining up behind it.

 

Jeff, I don't think we've seen our last subzero low.

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Lol, Voyager and I (maybe Sauss with the softball bug) will behave and deal with what we get. Just going to be a shock to the system coming back from Florida to that!!  :lmao: Enjoy your few inches tonight, looks like a couple inches is a lock for a lot of PA.

I'll join you in about mid-March when I want the snow out of the gardens ASAP so it won't be so muddy to delay planting.

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And not only that, here's the Euro for next week for people who hate winter:

 

 

It brings 500 thicknesses right on us late next week and another arctic shot lining up behind it.

 

Jeff, I don't think we've seen our last subzero low.

What'd you say, paper champion?  Why don't you bring your pretty self over to my apartment later tonight, and I'll show you a real man.

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Lol, Voyager and I (maybe Sauss with the softball bug) will behave and deal with what we get. Just going to be a shock to the system coming back from Florida to that!!  :lmao: Enjoy your few inches tonight, looks like a couple inches is a lock for a lot of PA.

eh, i'm 100% in Winter mode, though my shoulders, triceps and knees are a lil sore, bring it.

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Was up at Blue Knob snowboarding yesterday afternoon and eve and there was feet upon feet up snow up there. Looked like a general 2-3 foot snowpack and there was probably even more than that in some of the wooded areas back where the cabins/houses were.  It also never stopped snowing up there yesterday with a couple more inches of powder. All in all a great day until I managed to sprain my ankle on the last run, so feeling a bit lousy today. 

 

2-5" snowfall should be fairly common area wide with this coming event tonight with the lowest amounts in the southern tier. Be interesting to see if we can manage couple 6 or even 7 inch reports in the north and west if we end up with a little bit better QPF and some heavy rates. Also will have to watch for a thin glaze of ice in the southern tier with some possible freezing drizzle in the wake of the main precip. 

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Lol, Voyager and I (maybe Sauss with the softball bug) will behave and deal with what we get. Just going to be a shock to the system coming back from Florida to that!!  :lmao: Enjoy your few inches tonight, looks like a couple inches is a lock for a lot of PA.

My daughter is slated to start softball 3/5.  i'm not looking forward to how this will mess up the schedule, but I do NOT turn down snow until the end of March.  My son and I are anxious to get on the bikes as he looks to do more mtn bike races, so it mucks up something for everyone (but the snowmobiling has been fan - freakin - tastic!!).  

 

Nut

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Was up at Blue Knob snowboarding yesterday afternoon and eve and there was feet upon feet up snow up there. Looked like a general 2-3 foot snowpack and there was probably even more than that in some of the wooded areas back where the cabins/houses were.  It also never stopped snowing up there yesterday with a couple more inches of powder. All in all a great day until I managed to sprain my ankle on the last run, so feeling a bit lousy today. 

 

2-5" snowfall should be fairly common area wide with this coming event tonight with the lowest amounts in the southern tier. Be interesting to see if we can manage couple 6 or even 7 inch reports in the north and west if we end up with a little bit better QPF and some heavy rates. Also will have to watch for a thin glaze of ice in the southern tier with some possible freezing drizzle in the wake of the main precip. 

I skied Blue Knob about 13 years ago. Its one steep Mountain. I stuck to the beginner and intermediate slopes. But It has good natural snow pack even in a bad winter.

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Was up at Blue Knob snowboarding yesterday afternoon and eve and there was feet upon feet up snow up there. Looked like a general 2-3 foot snowpack and there was probably even more than that in some of the wooded areas back where the cabins/houses were.  It also never stopped snowing up there yesterday with a couple more inches of powder. All in all a great day until I managed to sprain my ankle on the last run, so feeling a bit lousy today. 

 

2-5" snowfall should be fairly common area wide with this coming event tonight with the lowest amounts in the southern tier. Be interesting to see if we can manage couple 6 or even 7 inch reports in the north and west if we end up with a little bit better QPF and some heavy rates. Also will have to watch for a thin glaze of ice in the southern tier with some possible freezing drizzle in the wake of the main precip. 

Blue Knob is one of the better ski areas in PA, isn't it? Would love to make a day trip down there sometime this winter, Tussey's not quite worth the price IMO since I'll need to rent skis.

 

High clouds starting to come in here but overall a decent day, you can really feel the sun now that we're in mid-February.

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to me it looks as if the precip is outrunning the models once again... 12z nam had precip entering western ohio around 0z and it is already into ohio... also concerned about how much warm air around 850 is being pulled north right now... NAM had 850s climb above 0 and then just collapse when precip moved into western PA... lots of freezing rain reports over ohio right now... some lightning but with rain and not snow in southwest ohio

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to me it looks as if the precip is outrunning the models once again... 12z nam had precip entering western ohio around 0z and it is already into ohio... also concerned about how much warm air around 850 is being pulled north right now... NAM had 850s climb above 0 and then just collapse when precip moved into western PA... lots of freezing rain reports over ohio right now... some lightning but with rain and not snow in southwest ohio

I saw the 18z corrected the timing some. Good catch.

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Apparently PIT NWS posted this today.  Seems hard to even imagine!!

 

"Weather Tidbit for the night: Yesterday's snowfall at the NWS office measured 2.5" out of 0.02" of liquid equivalent. You may have seen us refer to snow-to-liquid ratios or snow ratios in products such as our discussions. A "normal" snow ratio in Pittsburgh would be around 12 to 1. Today's snow ratio worked out to be 125 to 1! That's an absolutely stunning number."

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Apparently PIT NWS posted this today.  Seems hard to even imagine!!

 

"Weather Tidbit for the night: Yesterday's snowfall at the NWS office measured 2.5" out of 0.02" of liquid equivalent. You may have seen us refer to snow-to-liquid ratios or snow ratios in products such as our discussions. A "normal" snow ratio in Pittsburgh would be around 12 to 1. Today's snow ratio worked out to be 125 to 1! That's an absolutely stunning number."

 

That's insane, I've never heard of a ratio anywhere near that high. Usually the best ideal circumstances you could see a 30-40:1 type snow. 125:1 has to be near some kind of record for the Lower 48 haha. 

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How is 125:1 even meteorologically possible? Man I would love to see a study on that.

Just looking around at some research papers, 100:1 ratios have rarely been recorded in mountainous regions during calm dendritic snowfalls. I think there may have been some under-catch.  Sometime during the early 2000s we had a 1-2" snowfall in Lebanon County from a dying LES streamer that me and my dad estimated at around 40-50:1, and you could have read a newspaper through it...I literally can't imagine what 125:1 would actually look like.

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Just looking around at some research papers, 100:1 ratios have rarely been recorded in mountainous regions during calm dendritic snowfalls. I think there may have been some under-catch. Sometime during the early 2000s we had a 1-2" snowfall in Lebanon County from a dying LES streamer that me and my dad estimated at around 40-50:1, and you could have read a newspaper through it...I literally can't imagine what 125:1 would actually look like.

Honestly it didnt look much different than typical clipper or LES snow around here. Fluff to be sure - but nothing that stood out. Not sure their exact methods, but I would think it was under represented. I'm not sure if there are other reporting stations around here that have snow and water content as public info. It would be interesting to see if a site like KAGC had similar results

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