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Central PA & The Fringes - February 2014 Pt. VI


2001kx

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CTP acknowledging the day 5/6 threat...   Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA

805 PM EST TUE FEB 25 2014

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-

056>059-063>066-270115-

WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-

NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-

JUNIATA-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-

SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-

NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-

ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-

805 PM EST TUE FEB 25 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE FORMING AND MAY CREATE HIGHLY LOCALIZED

FLOODING...MAINLY ALONG THE SMALLER CREEKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE FORMING AND MAY CREATE HIGHLY LOCALIZED

FLOODING...MAINLY ALONG THE SMALLER CREEKS.

GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANYING COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR WIND

CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE

COLDEST VALUES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

A SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLY LONG-DURATION WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS

LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS ONE OR MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE

MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ALONG A

STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS

SNOW...THEN POSSIBLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN

ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

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CTP acknowledging the day 5/6 threat...   Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA

805 PM EST TUE FEB 25 2014

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-

056>059-063>066-270115-

WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-

NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-

JUNIATA-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-

SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-

NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-

ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-

805 PM EST TUE FEB 25 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE FORMING AND MAY CREATE HIGHLY LOCALIZED

FLOODING...MAINLY ALONG THE SMALLER CREEKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ISOLATED ICE JAMS ARE FORMING AND MAY CREATE HIGHLY LOCALIZED

FLOODING...MAINLY ALONG THE SMALLER CREEKS.

GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANYING COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR WIND

CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE

COLDEST VALUES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

A SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLY LONG-DURATION WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS

LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS ONE OR MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE

MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ALONG A

STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS

SNOW...THEN POSSIBLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN

ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

 

yep our pals at EPAWA already have people talking that a big storm will happen....

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Well, most, if not all of us are now below freezing once again.  It looks like we will now begin a 5 to 6-day period of continuously below 32.  While that happening in January is even a little unusual especially down here in LSV-land (this winter excepted, of course), to be happening at the tail end of February into the first week of March is quite noteworthy.  Normals around here are now 44/24, so a solid 10 to 15 degrees below normal has begun.

 

djr will have to update us on the Feb statistics.  I would think we're running at least 4 degrees below average after our 6.5 below last month.

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the problem with the weanie wishcasters (I like that term) is that they know enough to be dangerous, and they tend self correct when they see something.

 

For example: local weenie wishcasters are stating that we "could get a big storm this Sunday to Monday"; they posted a few maps and they will say in a few days that they had this predicted a week out, better than *Name the local met*. But they will adjust their forecast as it gets closer "it is going to be close but it could miss". Weatherboy posted his 3 foot storm maps and then said that wasn't a prediction. 100,000 people saw that and they thought it was gospel.

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the problem with the weanie wishcasters (I like that term) is that they know enough to be dangerous, and they tend self correct when they see something.

 

For example: local weenie wishcasters are stating that we "could get a big storm this Sunday to Monday"; they posted a few maps and they will say in a few days that they had this predicted a week out, better than *Name the local met*. But they will adjust their forecast as it gets closer "it is going to be close but it could miss". Weatherboy posted his 3 foot storm maps and then said that wasn't a prediction. 100,000 people saw that and they thought it was gospel.

That's just it. Even for the pros, if for example Jim Cantore says "and looking ahead to the weekend, some of the models are showing a major snowstorm for the East, but keep in mind that's still a ways out and lots of questions remain about whether there's even a storm. Just something to watch" and the public hears "blah blah blah blah GIANT BLIZZARD THIS WEEKEND blah blah blah blah blah"

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Holy crap these potholes are insane. 83 might as well be the surface of the moon.

PennDOT f'n suuuuuuuuuuuuucks worse than any other.

yes it's bad here in PA, but not as bad as it is in Indiana. Between the sub-zero temps an snow they had out there , there's long stretches of hwy where the road is completely ripped up. Feels like ur driving off road(dirt roads)
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The Scranton based bus line actually the county based line has changed routes due to road conditions being bad. There are roads I avoid because of how bad the roads are. The good mews is that the state has raised the gas tax and will continue to do so for the next few years to fix the roads.

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Euro still looking good for a long duration event, it almost comes in two waves with an initial round of light to moderate precip arriving at hour 114 and going through 120. Somewhat of a lull at hour 126 before the main event traverses PA hours 132-144. Only potential p-type issues I saw was with the first batch where the far southern tier of the Sus Valley might mix initially. Other than that it's a snow bomb for all of us (and yes the Pittsburgh gang is heavily involved as well). 

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0Z GFS says it starts snowing here by 7AM Sunday morning and continues non-stop until Tuesday afternoon!!  If this happens it will be the longest duration snowstorm I have ever seen.  I'm pretty sure that biggest and longest events for me were Feb 1978 and Jan 1996 both of which lasted around 36 hours.  GFS says 54 to 60 hours non stop.  I'm totally expecting it to change, but WOW from this vantage verbatim.  Oh yeah, it dumps 15" of snow on us in the Harrisburg area.

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If I see another snow map posted from the Euro I am going to scream. I am starting to get sick of trying to forecast responsibly and having to deal with all this crap pages backlash. It is getting freaking annoying that the NWS has to field calls about some snow map or stupid Kevin Martins violent tornado outbreak. Hope they do come out with the NWA social media accreditation. 

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