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Central PA & The Fringes - February 2014 Pt. VI


2001kx

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The 3/3 storm looked pretty crappy on the operational models tonight, with both the GFS and Euro tracking the storm in a fashion that would send warm air (at least aloft) into PA. Surface low kind of stays south of  PA (tries to cut) but 850 low does cut mainly north of PA. GFS and Euro ensembles were much colder (mainly snow in most of PA) and had plenty of precip and a pretty distinct system considering the range. Minus the details on sensible weather impacts, it's a fairly solid storm signal being out around D7.

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The 3/3 storm looked pretty crappy on the operational models tonight, with both the GFS and Euro tracking the storm in a fashion that would send warm air (at least aloft) into PA. Surface low kind of stays south of  PA (tries to cut) but 850 low does cut mainly north of PA. GFS and Euro ensembles were much colder (mainly snow in most of PA) and had plenty of precip and a pretty distinct system considering the range. Minus the details on sensible weather impacts, it's a fairly solid storm signal being out around D7.

Thanks for the encouraging news, do you get the individual euro ens?

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The 3/3 storm looked pretty crappy on the operational models tonight, with both the GFS and Euro tracking the storm in a fashion that would send warm air (at least aloft) into PA. Surface low kind of stays south of  PA (tries to cut) but 850 low does cut mainly north of PA. GFS and Euro ensembles were much colder (mainly snow in most of PA) and had plenty of precip and a pretty distinct system considering the range. Minus the details on sensible weather impacts, it's a fairly solid storm signal being out around D7.

I've been reading a few people commenting on that storm and it seems like the ensembles have the right idea. HM posted this on Twitter: 

 

It's December all over again. Typical overamp. bias in MR/LR models. High wave number= more eastward. Cutters less likely but not hybrids.

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Ugh. I think I want spring. That little tease over the weekend was a thing of beauty. We could close up winter today and be very satisfied with what we had. 

 

But if we're going to get another storm, I'll probably get back on board pretty quickly. 

I would agree. If we don't see another flake it has been an awesome winter here. I wouldn't mind having Spring start in March this year however if the models show snow I'm all in. :weenie:

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The 12z euro and 12z cmc are now showing a big snowstorm for most of pa Sunday night and Monday. A long way to go yet, but a step in the right direction.

GFS ensemble mean continues to be colder than operational... with the core of the cold air in eastern canada I don't understand how the GFS is bringing the warm air as far north as it is... looks like a snow set up with some fzra in LSV at times... now that my ice is nearly gone I prefer the snow this time lol

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GFS ensemble mean continues to be colder than operational... with the core of the cold air in eastern canada I don't understand how the GFS is bringing the warm air as far north as it is... looks like a snow set up with some fzra in LSV at times... now that my ice is nearly gone I prefer the snow this time lol

 

Its the gfs... it will catch on a day or two before the storm.  The way it looked in southeast Canada this run on the euro, I would not be surprised to see it trend colder.  Thats if the euro holds on future runs.

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Ah, here we go again, another D6-7 threat on the models. If it holds at 0z tonight, I'll start looking.

It's been there for a while now and the pattern's a lot better. It seems to be the start of a stormy run for the first half of March. It sort of mimics last week of January (cold/dry) and then a stormy/cold first half of Feb. 

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