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Central PA & The Fringes - February 2014 Pt. VI


2001kx

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It's getting dark here in Daytona heavy rain just north.. Hope the finish this thing flight back is tmrw.

just saw a tornado warning with a cell 25-30 miles west of the track

 

another sunny tease today... I am down to 1-2" here on flatter terrain while sloped nearly fully exposed grass

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It's chill it's damp but the cars have roared to life here at the track. Let's get this baby in!!

 

Could still be a threat of a shortened end with rain starting to work in off the Gulf coast side and the edge just reaching Ocala now. Should at least be able to make it to halfway though and then some pretty easily I think. 

 

Edit: Boy i'm glad the rain held off, that was an awesome ending to that race. 

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Hope everyone enjoyed the warm spell we have had the last few days, as we are heading for quite a cold one this week. Doesn't appear to be any significant snow threats during the week though, although i'd be watching near Tues night/Wednesday for possibly a light snowfall as a significant push of arctic air arrives. There's been some attempts at a light snowfall around Sat (March 1st) as well. For the most part, things look pretty squashed for the course of the week and we'll be looking at the northern branch for any events that crop up. 

 

GFS/Euro had a more definitive storm threat tonight based around 3/3.. both have a gulf originating storm. GFS kind of iffy with it, trying to cut but getting it underneath to the coast. Being right around truncation time doesn't help either. The more detailed Euro takes a weak reflection to east Tennessee before giving way to a blossoming coastal from over top extreme NE NC (Outer Banks-ish) and then up to offshore of the Jersey coast. Decent snow event for most in PA. Will have to see if it sticks around in some fashion in subsequent runs. 

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Had a low of 27 at the house... with minimal snow cover it didnt feel all that cold at all... as sign of how this winter has made temps in the 20s at night feel warm lol

 

As of this morning... February 2014 currently ranks as 16th wettest, 14th snowiest, and 24th coldest month of February for Harrisburg on record...

 

13th snowiest Dec, Jan, Feb

 

Currently 17th coldest Dec, Jan, Feb... wonder how much we can climb in ranking after this week... top 10 seems unlikely but top 15 coldest meteorological winter probable

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Looks like the pattern into mid-March is pretty loaded. Can't really write it off given 

 

Hope everyone enjoyed the warm spell we have had the last few days, as we are heading for quite a cold one this week. Doesn't appear to be any significant snow threats during the week though, although i'd be watching near Tues night/Wednesday for possibly a light snowfall as a significant push of arctic air arrives. There's been some attempts at a light snowfall around Sat (March 1st) as well. For the most part, things look pretty squashed for the course of the week and we'll be looking at the northern branch for any events that crop up. 

 

GFS/Euro had a more definitive storm threat tonight based around 3/3.. both have a gulf originating storm. GFS kind of iffy with it, trying to cut but getting it underneath to the coast. Being right around truncation time doesn't help either. The more detailed Euro takes a weak reflection to east Tennessee before giving way to a blossoming coastal from over top extreme NE NC (Outer Banks-ish) and then up to offshore of the Jersey coast. Decent snow event for most in PA. Will have to see if it sticks around in some fashion in subsequent runs. 

HM is really enthused about the pattern into mid-March: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42996-late-februarymarch-medium-long-range-disco/page-9#entry2824844

 

Above normal snow for March seems like a decent bet. 

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I'd estimate between 50%-75% snowcover here today. Certainly a bit more than just piles that I predicted. I have a lot of open area around me and the snow is pretty thin. In Maytown itself there are sheltered lawns with a good amount of coverage remaining.

In Mount Joy, there are still spots in the woods with 8 or 9 inches, at least.

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Of course the headline is the attention grabber, but the very first paragraph loosly indicates that this storm is "set in stone" and is going to happen. Of course the general public is going to go wild with it (it was already on my FB newsfeed via a friend) so it's starting already.

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Of course the headline is the attention grabber, but the very first paragraph loosly indicates that this storm is "set in stone" and is going to happen. Of course the general public is going to go wild with it (it was already on my FB newsfeed via a friend) so it's starting already.

 

 

These kids need grounded til April 1st .

It depresses me to no end that the public will believe a likely B- in Earth Science over experienced forecasters. if they want populism over science, here's an idea--if you need surgery, dump your doctor and just get the surgery from the first person you see on Facebook who happens to own a Swiss Army Knife. 

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It depresses me to no end that the public will believe a likely B- in Earth Science over experienced forecasters. if they want populism over science, here's an idea--if you need surgery, dump your doctor and just get the surgery from the first person you see on Facebook who happens to own a Swiss Army Knife. 

 

The scary thing is that anybody can start a website or facebook page, call themselves a meteorologist, and get tons of people to believe them. That is spreading all over facebook right now and I have friends thinking the next Blizzard of 93 might happen next week. I try to tell them to not overreact to something a week or so away but we live in the age of hysteria and misinformation.

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