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February 20 Severe Weather Threat


Hoosier

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..A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CASS  

NORTHWESTERN MORGAN  

AND SOUTHWESTERN MASON COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CST...  

 

AT 256 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  

WAS LOCATED NEAR ARENZVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.  

 

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  

 

SOURCE...A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN NEAR ARENZVILLE AT 255 PM.  

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Probably. The snow-cover affected temps are going to be an issue though.

 

The snowpack is doing what early morning convection north of the front usually does, it reinforces the front. Keeping it further south will probably end up co-locating the moisture axis and the best forcing.

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Such rapid intensification will overcome the negatives posed by snow cover but max risk will be mainly south of LAF, could become a major outbreak for e/c IL into IN (and KY-TN) south of a LAF-FWA line and reach western OH by midnight. Long duration thunder and lightning bonanza further north as most of the dynamics will be above an inversion, large hail possible with elevated cold front (ORD-MKE-GRR-SBN-DTW regions).

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SPI had a snow depth of 6" as of last night so there might've still been some snow on the ground where that tornado touched down.  :twister:

 

Webcams in Lincoln show the snow melted out at least that far north.

 

Actually here is a camera from Springfield now.

 

current.jpg?1392931004

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The snowpack is doing what early morning convection north of the front usually does, it reinforces the front. Keeping it further south will probably end up co-locating the moisture axis and the best forcing.

That probably won't be the case though, as the warm front continues to push northward...Now making it north through the southern LOT CWA.

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