wxmeddler Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Even Better/Worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 There is a severe warning out for a nice line of storms sw of Des Moines, just ahead of the deformation zone snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 There is a severe warning out for a nice line of storms sw of Des Moines, just ahead of the deformation zone snow. Wow, that's an incredible storm performing in 36/27 airmass! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 Models not really handling the temps/gradient around here and southward very well. Even short term RAP/HRRR runs are off with initialization. Given this and current temps down south, the more aggressive side may be the way to go here, which could impact severe prospects later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0122 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CST THU FEB 20 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MO...W-CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 201734Z - 201930Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...MONITORING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED DISCRETE TSTMS FORMING NEAR THE TRACK OF THE SYNOPTIC CYCLONE. UNCERTAINTIES DO EXIST WITH REGARD TO THE SUSTAINABILITY/INTENSITY OF UPDRAFTS. DISCUSSION...17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 991 MB CYCLONE OVER NWRN MO AROUND 35 S CDJ WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CNTRL IL. A DRYLINE EXTENDED SWD ACROSS WRN MO WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT TRAILING THE DRYLINE BY ABOUT 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY CONFIRM INCREASINGLY AGITATED CU/SMALL CBS FORMING ALONG THE DRYLINE/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION. WITH AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL JET AOA 100 KT OVERSPREADING THE LOWER MO TO MID-MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME EXTREME WITHIN THIS PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR. THE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY SHOULD HOWEVER REMAIN WEAK GIVEN VEERING OF SURFACE WINDS NOTED ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU RESULTING IN LOWERING OF DEW POINTS AND RELATIVELY ABUNDANT STRATOCU NEAR THE FRONT IN MO. ALTHOUGH MOST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...THEY LARGELY FAIL TO GREATLY INTENSIFY UPDRAFTS LIKELY OWING TO THE DEGREE OF EXTREME SHEAR RELATIVE TO WEAK BUOYANCY. STILL...IF AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WERE TO BECOME SUSTAINED...ALL SEVERE HAZARDS APPEAR POSSIBLE. ..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 02/20/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 What a beast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Seems like quite the gradient across town. 48 at LAF and reading 42 at my place on the north side. EDIT: PWS on the south edge of town reporting 52. I think I know where the front is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I'm really watching that area from Jackson, TN to Clarksville, TN to Hopkinsville, KY for tornado potential. It looks to be on the nose of the Theta-E advection as well as the 60 degree dew point isotherm. The 16z hi res HRRR is showing quite a few low topped supercells going up in that area by 5 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SirSonic Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I am starting to think that the Slight Risk might be pushed North and East to cover IN,OH,W PA. Looks like a very good chance of damaging winds later on in the evening and night. I think in OH there could be a few low topped supercells along the Ohio River in SE OH into SW PA. I have seen some models trying to fire storms in the evening ahead of the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I am starting to think that the Slight Risk might be pushed North and East to cover IN,OH,W PA. Looks like a very good chance of damaging winds later on in the evening and night. I think in OH there could be a few low topped supercells along the Ohio River in SE OH into SW PA. I have seen some models trying to fire storms in the evening ahead of the line lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Dew points really starting to mix out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I am starting to think that the Slight Risk might be pushed North and East to cover IN,OH,W PA. Looks like a very good chance of damaging winds later on in the evening and night. I think in OH there could be a few low topped supercells along the Ohio River in SE OH into SW PA. I have seen some models trying to fire storms in the evening ahead of the line IN and OH maybe, PA naso much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 SirSonic, on 20 Feb 2014 - 2:01 PM, said:SirSonic, on 20 Feb 2014 - 2:01 PM, said:I am starting to think that the Slight Risk might be pushed North and East to cover IN,OH,W PA. Looks like a very good chance of damaging winds later on in the evening and night. I think in OH there could be a few low topped supercells along the Ohio River in SE OH into SW PA. I have seen some models trying to fire storms in the evening ahead of the line I don't think PA is going to see much. The current SPC outlook looks spot-on to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I am starting to think that the Slight Risk might be pushed North and East to cover IN,OH,W PA. Looks like a very good chance of damaging winds later on in the evening and night. I think in OH there could be a few low topped supercells along the Ohio River in SE OH into SW PA. I have seen some models trying to fire storms in the evening ahead of the lineIf you are going to wishcast, try to make it a little more subtle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 Watch coming out for MO/IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Watch coming out for MO/IL BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 10 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 140 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 10 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BOND BROWN CALHOUN CHRISTIAN CLINTON FAYETTE GREENE JERSEY MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN PIKE RANDOLPH SANGAMON SCOTT ST. CLAIR WASHINGTON MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD FRANKLIN GASCONADE IRON JEFFERSON LINCOLN MADISON MONTGOMERY PIKE RALLS REYNOLDS ST. CHARLES ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS STE. GENEVIEVE WARREN WASHINGTON MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE ST. LOUIS CITY ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 full sun here for the past 2 hours...up to 61 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 Slight risk expanded north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Line of small discrete storms about ready to cross into illinois around Quincy with .25 inch hail being reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Line of small discrete storms about ready to cross into illinois around Quincy with .25 inch hail being reported. Warning just issued for quincy and to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0123NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0145 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH/MID-MS VALLEYCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELYVALID 201945Z - 202145ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENTSUMMARY...TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEWD FROM AR ACROSS THE MSVALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A PREDOMINANT LINEARMODE WILL TEND TO FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN HAZARD...BUTENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD YIELD EMBEDDED SUPERCELLSTRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES.DISCUSSION...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE TSTMS HAVE INCREASED WITHIN APRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND INTO S-CNTRL AR. AHEAD OF THISACTIVITY...WIDESPREAD DEEP CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED INSOLATION ANDSLOWED DESTABILIZATION. NEVERTHELESS...A PLUME OF 60-63 DEG FSURFACE DEW POINTS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. AS THECOMPOSITE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INTERCEPTS THIS PLUME...A DISTINCTINCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY APPEARS LIKELY IN THE LATEAFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN STRONG AND EVENSTRENGTHEN ON THE SRN FRINGE OF AN INTENSE 500-700 MB JET ROTATINGTHROUGH THE BASE OF THE N-CNTRL CONUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGHLINEAR MODE AND ATTENDANT SEVERE WIND RISK WILL LIKELYDOMINATE...LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND MODEST TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES AS WELL...GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 02/20/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 ^I wonder how long that dryline feature is going to maintain itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Might need to be expanded north still...Hawkeye has a warning now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 first warning of the year for my neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 If the two storms SE of Quincy that are pushing into W. IL were moving into a better environment I'd probably be headed south right now. Instead their potential will probably be limited given they're quickly approaching the cooler snow-covered areas of C. IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Star CIty, AR cell is really starting to rotate. Wouldn't be surprised to see the first TOR warning of the day with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 If the two storms SE of Quincy that are pushing into W. IL were moving into a better environment I'd probably be headed south right now. Instead their potential will probably be limited given they're quickly approaching the cooler snow-covered areas of C. IL. elevated pingers on deck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 Short range guidance is practically unuseable around here today in terms of temp trends. There are initialization errors of 10 degrees. Temp did stall here in the past hour but we should start rising again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Torrential rain here with some serious wind. My portable gauge said 57mph. It was raining and blowing so hard visibility was zero. My rain gauge blew over so I don't know what we got but the road is flooded in front of my office. It all happened in about a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Star CIty, AR cell is really starting to rotate. Wouldn't be surprised to see the first TOR warning of the day with that one. Looks more like a downburst signature, at least initially, than anything. Tons of precip with that cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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