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2/18/14 snow event


weathafella

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I've noticed this in the past ... If things appear more shaky, uncertain ... perhaps even less appealing in terms of fulfilling heroin-snow fix than was advertized and warned, and someone makes humor of it, that post gets pounced on and deleted like a pitbull on a steak-bone - wow.  

 

Maybe things will blow up later where fore said model x,y,z indicates it should, but this is not how I visualized things going up to this point in time.  We were supposed to snow heavily for 2-3 hours mid day, and that ship has formally sailed.  Now we are in wait for this Long Island stuff, which does look impressive, to move its way on up.   I may have missed the boat on this thing and perhaps that was what was supposed to take place all along --  not sure.  But, this does not really remind me of the QPF fields I analyzed yesterday.  

 

Heh, is what it is..  we'll see.  

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I've noticed this in the past ... If things appear more shaky, uncertain ... perhaps even less appealing in terms of fulfilling heroin-snow fix than was advertized and warned, and someone makes humor of it, that post gets pounced on and deleted like a pitbull on a steak-bone - wow.  

 

Maybe things will blow up later where fore said model x,y,z indicates it should, but this is not how I visualized things going up to this point in time.  We were supposed to snow heavily for 2-3 hours mid day, and that ship has formally sailed.  Now we are in wait for this Long Island stuff, which does look impressive, to move its way on up.   I may have missed the boat on this thing and perhaps that was what was supposed to take place all along --  not sure.  But, this does not really remind me of the QPF fields I analyzed yesterday.  

 

Heh, is what it is..  we'll see.  

The long Island stuff has been the focus all along

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HRRR can be a little volatile, so it's hard to really base the forecast heavily on it. But it will definitely be part of the blend today. I think it's got a pretty good handle on things right now.

 

The reason i asked is for the reason you stated, I have found it under performing up here on a few events with where it was placing max qpf amounts

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I've noticed this in the past ... If things appear more shaky, uncertain ... perhaps even less appealing in terms of fulfilling heroin-snow fix than was advertized and warned, and someone makes humor of it, that post gets pounced on and deleted like a pitbull on a steak-bone - wow.  

 

Maybe things will blow up later where fore said model x,y,z indicates it should, but this is not how I visualized things going up to this point in time.  We were supposed to snow heavily for 2-3 hours mid day, and that ship has formally sailed.  Now we are in wait for this Long Island stuff, which does look impressive, to move its way on up.   I may have missed the boat on this thing and perhaps that was what was supposed to take place all along --  not sure.  But, this does not really remind me of the QPF fields I analyzed yesterday.  

 

Heh, is what it is..  we'll see.  

 

Some of the model progs yesterday had the precip blowing up further southwest over NJ....but that seemed to be really only present on the 12z guidance yesterday...now it is further east.

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Some of the model progs yesterday had the precip blowing up further southwest over NJ....but that seemed to be really only present on the 12z guidance yesterday...now it is further east.

 

I wrote earlier in this thread about these "meso-beta" scaled impulses, and how they can evolve regardless of teleconnector, and/or other detection methods, because their 'smallness' are not as physically/transitively connected to the larger delta(circulation) medium.   

 

It seems logical that the models would then inherently have some difficulties, because small, intra-grid scaled interactions tend to dictate what takes place from zone to zone, with montage of variability.  

 

The differential between what the models indicated yesterday, against the now-cast today, really tells that story.  Doesn't mean we are not getting, or are getting, an event...Clearly we are.  But handling the details is a utter nightmare. 

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Some of the model progs yesterday had the precip blowing up further southwest over NJ....but that seemed to be really only present on the 12z guidance yesterday...now it is further east.

Based on radar trends and current obs here, Kevin's area might do better than I will, which is a little of a surprise

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Definitely coming together nice now up my way in Ayer.   Just when the band seems to want to collapse on rad, it re-blossoms.  We've been pulsing to 3-level green, and over the last 40 minutes I have been pretty consistently in that 1/4 to 1/3 mi visibility.  Snow type is uniform small to occasionally mid-sized aggregates.   Appears a nice band is moving NNE out of eastern CT/RI... that should be the afternoon max one would think. 

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Everyone is misconstruing the southeast post. It's all about the surface low track going SE not the precip.

It was supposed to go over our heads yesterday, not the canal to pvc.

The weenies who get butthury easily usually do misconstrue things. I knew what was meant. And the more SE track is why I'm getting near whiteout conditions and a reason why it hasn't flipped yet.

2-4" should be attainable for the south coast

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The weenies who get butthury easily usually do misconstrue things. I knew what was meant. And the more SE track is why I'm getting near whiteout conditions and a reason why it hasn't flipped yet.

2-4" should be attainable for the south coast

Well, I don't think Steve is butthurt, he was bound to see heavy regardless. It's all about the people east of steve and south of me who were flirting with rain in earlier runs. Now they are in whiteout conditions. surface track made a huge difference to them.

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Well, I don't think Steve is butthurt, he was bound to see heavy regardless. It's all about the people east of steve and south of me who were flirting with rain in earlier runs. Now they are in whiteout conditions. surface track made a huge difference to them.

looks like its going over Ct to me, models overestimated BL conditions as I tried to say yesterday, all these calls for rain seemed questionable to me.

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RGEM/HRRR/RAP all say interior ne ma jackpot into coastal nh and only extreme s me.  I think trends are really going against the lake region into sw maine foothills jackpot that looked to be locked up last night.

 

I'm really not sure where the Lakes Region/foothills stuff is coming from. I know my forecast yesterday was interior Rockingham county for the highest totals, and I still feel pretty good about that.

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looks like its going over Ct to me, models overestimated BL conditions as I tried to say yesterday, all these calls for rain seemed questionable to me.

 

 

We did note how cold the Euro was...certainly a slightly SE track will help those who were near the track.

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