Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I've noticed this in the past ... If things appear more shaky, uncertain ... perhaps even less appealing in terms of fulfilling heroin-snow fix than was advertized and warned, and someone makes humor of it, that post gets pounced on and deleted like a pitbull on a steak-bone - wow. Maybe things will blow up later where fore said model x,y,z indicates it should, but this is not how I visualized things going up to this point in time. We were supposed to snow heavily for 2-3 hours mid day, and that ship has formally sailed. Now we are in wait for this Long Island stuff, which does look impressive, to move its way on up. I may have missed the boat on this thing and perhaps that was what was supposed to take place all along -- not sure. But, this does not really remind me of the QPF fields I analyzed yesterday. Heh, is what it is.. we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I've noticed this in the past ... If things appear more shaky, uncertain ... perhaps even less appealing in terms of fulfilling heroin-snow fix than was advertized and warned, and someone makes humor of it, that post gets pounced on and deleted like a pitbull on a steak-bone - wow. Maybe things will blow up later where fore said model x,y,z indicates it should, but this is not how I visualized things going up to this point in time. We were supposed to snow heavily for 2-3 hours mid day, and that ship has formally sailed. Now we are in wait for this Long Island stuff, which does look impressive, to move its way on up. I may have missed the boat on this thing and perhaps that was what was supposed to take place all along -- not sure. But, this does not really remind me of the QPF fields I analyzed yesterday. Heh, is what it is.. we'll see. The long Island stuff has been the focus all along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 HRRR can be a little volatile, so it's hard to really base the forecast heavily on it. But it will definitely be part of the blend today. I think it's got a pretty good handle on things right now. The reason i asked is for the reason you stated, I have found it under performing up here on a few events with where it was placing max qpf amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 No one ever said that it makes a difference, just that the track looks to have changed. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I've noticed this in the past ... If things appear more shaky, uncertain ... perhaps even less appealing in terms of fulfilling heroin-snow fix than was advertized and warned, and someone makes humor of it, that post gets pounced on and deleted like a pitbull on a steak-bone - wow. Maybe things will blow up later where fore said model x,y,z indicates it should, but this is not how I visualized things going up to this point in time. We were supposed to snow heavily for 2-3 hours mid day, and that ship has formally sailed. Now we are in wait for this Long Island stuff, which does look impressive, to move its way on up. I may have missed the boat on this thing and perhaps that was what was supposed to take place all along -- not sure. But, this does not really remind me of the QPF fields I analyzed yesterday. Heh, is what it is.. we'll see. Some of the model progs yesterday had the precip blowing up further southwest over NJ....but that seemed to be really only present on the 12z guidance yesterday...now it is further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Some of the model progs yesterday had the precip blowing up further southwest over NJ....but that seemed to be really only present on the 12z guidance yesterday...now it is further east. I wrote earlier in this thread about these "meso-beta" scaled impulses, and how they can evolve regardless of teleconnector, and/or other detection methods, because their 'smallness' are not as physically/transitively connected to the larger delta(circulation) medium. It seems logical that the models would then inherently have some difficulties, because small, intra-grid scaled interactions tend to dictate what takes place from zone to zone, with montage of variability. The differential between what the models indicated yesterday, against the now-cast today, really tells that story. Doesn't mean we are not getting, or are getting, an event...Clearly we are. But handling the details is a utter nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The reason i asked is for the reason you stated, I have found it under performing up here on a few events with where it was placing max qpf amounts I expect to bust low on this. Just seems to be the trend this year. For the most part, usually getting low end of frcst or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Some of the model progs yesterday had the precip blowing up further southwest over NJ....but that seemed to be really only present on the 12z guidance yesterday...now it is further east. Based on radar trends and current obs here, Kevin's area might do better than I will, which is a little of a surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 All the mesos take the LI stinger over my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trat Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Wow, HRRR, RAP keep insisting on a mega band for everyone inside of 495 and 128 from around 3pm to 5pm with 1-3"/hr rates. This could be a pretty wild afternoon here if those short range models are onto something. Can you say evening commute disaster v2 for this year? V4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I expect to bust low on this. Just seems to be the trend this year. For the most part, usually getting low end of frcst or less. Yup, despite the modelology and meteorology it's hard to ignore season long trends. As the saying goes: "it's gonna' snow where it wants to snow." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Location Sbos is in North Andover. If that's what you were asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 heading home around 2 pm to beat the snow.. told others in the office to do the same.. they are like why?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Almost looks like that E of 495, S of I-90 may have to be upped to 4-6" ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Almost looks like that E of 495, S of I-90 may have to be upped to 4-6" ? I tend to possibly agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Ese winds are breezy here 30.8 mod snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 fYI this did not go SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 fYI this did not go SE Everyone is misconstruing the southeast post. It's all about the surface low track going SE not the precip. It was supposed to go over our heads yesterday, not the canal to pvc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Definitely coming together nice now up my way in Ayer. Just when the band seems to want to collapse on rad, it re-blossoms. We've been pulsing to 3-level green, and over the last 40 minutes I have been pretty consistently in that 1/4 to 1/3 mi visibility. Snow type is uniform small to occasionally mid-sized aggregates. Appears a nice band is moving NNE out of eastern CT/RI... that should be the afternoon max one would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Everyone is misconstruing the southeast post. It's all about the surface low track going SE not the precip. It was supposed to go over our heads yesterday, not the canal to pvc. The weenies who get butthury easily usually do misconstrue things. I knew what was meant. And the more SE track is why I'm getting near whiteout conditions and a reason why it hasn't flipped yet. 2-4" should be attainable for the south coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The weenies who get butthury easily usually do misconstrue things. I knew what was meant. And the more SE track is why I'm getting near whiteout conditions and a reason why it hasn't flipped yet. 2-4" should be attainable for the south coast Well, I don't think Steve is butthurt, he was bound to see heavy regardless. It's all about the people east of steve and south of me who were flirting with rain in earlier runs. Now they are in whiteout conditions. surface track made a huge difference to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 RGEM/HRRR/RAP all say interior ne ma jackpot into coastal nh and only extreme s me. I think trends are really going against the lake region into sw maine foothills jackpot that looked to be locked up last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 1-3 forecasts on the shore got trashed, bodes well for interior folks as this blew up a little earlier than expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Well, I don't think Steve is butthurt, he was bound to see heavy regardless. It's all about the people east of steve and south of me who were flirting with rain in earlier runs. Now they are in whiteout conditions. surface track made a huge difference to them. looks like its going over Ct to me, models overestimated BL conditions as I tried to say yesterday, all these calls for rain seemed questionable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 looks like its going over Ct to me, models overestimated BL conditions as I tried to say yesterday, all these calls for rain seemed questionable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Maybe extreme se ct Jay ya, ur all over this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 RGEM/HRRR/RAP all say interior ne ma jackpot into coastal nh and only extreme s me. I think trends are really going against the lake region into sw maine foothills jackpot that looked to be locked up last night. I'm really not sure where the Lakes Region/foothills stuff is coming from. I know my forecast yesterday was interior Rockingham county for the highest totals, and I still feel pretty good about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I have had se winds all morning still ese, if it were SE of me I would have ene or ne winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 looks like its going over Ct to me, models overestimated BL conditions as I tried to say yesterday, all these calls for rain seemed questionable to me. We did note how cold the Euro was...certainly a slightly SE track will help those who were near the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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