DomNH Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Wow...seems like the heavier stuff will be shifting away from this area and be more Eastern MA, and SE ME focused...sweet We're good for ~6''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 You can see it's happening just as Will described. The stuff in PA with the vort is really filling in over e and Ne Pa, while the stuff that was over Jersey heads into CT now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Jeez, new HRRR is WAY southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Radar looking better HRRR seems good. Short range/hires models develop quite a little comma head later this morning. The snow near BGM is associated with the 500mb vort max and as that slides east I think you'll see the precip shield blossom nicely. Might be a bit too late for areas like Fairfield County (and certainly NYC) but you can see the pieces on radar pretty well. RGEM/NAM/HRRR/RAP all in really good agreement on what takes place over the next few hours (globals too show this generally - GFS and Euro) plus radar agrees. There will be a screw zone in the SW (maybe HVN/DXR?) but other than that I think we're pretty much right on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 New HRRR is ridiculous for eastern portions. Absolute crushjob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Short range/hires models develop quite a little comma head later this morning. The snow near BGM is associated with the 500mb vort max and as that slides east I think you'll see the precip shield blossom nicely. Might be a bit too late for areas like Fairfield County (and certainly NYC) but you can see the pieces on radar pretty well. RGEM/NAM/HRRR/RAP all in really good agreement on what takes place over the next few hours (globals too show this generally - GFS and Euro) plus radar agrees. There will be a screw zone in the SW (maybe HVN/DXR?) but other than that I think we're pretty much right on track. Yeah I just posted rhe same thing..look at the stuff explode over NE pa.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The other thing I'm noticing this morning is that "low dbz" snow is surprisingly impressive in person. The radar beam from OKX is nearly 5000 ft above my head and it's cold enough in the boundary layer to grow snow flakes with the bit of vertical motion we have low to the ground. That should change though over the next hour or two as the boundary layer warm up quickly and snow growth shuts tapers off down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Yeah I just posted rhe same thing..look at the stuff explode over NE pa.. If by explode you mean "move east and hold its own" yes. I don't think it will really blossom until it's nearly overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I think Ray gets smoked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 If by explode you mean "move east and hold its own" yes. I don't think it will really blossom until it's nearly overhead. I think this one run total NAM12 QPF image really shows you how this thing will evolve. Pretty rapid blossoming of precip later today when it approaches northeast MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digityman Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I think this one run total NAM12 QPF image really shows you how this thing will evolve. Pretty rapid blossoming of precip later today when it approaches northeast MA. NAM12.jpg That's a nice snow for southern maine. Almost perfect for the Portland area. Should make driving home fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I think this one run total NAM12 QPF image really shows you how this thing will evolve. Pretty rapid blossoming of precip later today when it approaches northeast MA. Looks like all the Meso models have the same general areas as the bulleyes/screwgie zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I think this one run total NAM12 QPF image really shows you how this thing will evolve. Pretty rapid blossoming of precip later today when it approaches northeast MA. NAM12.jpg Thundersnow from BOS into SW Maine IMO. NAM isn't as far south east as HRRR/RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 That's a nice snow for southern maine. Almost perfect for the Portland area. Should make driving home fun. The only hesitation is the immediate coast, ripping southeasterly winds should at least make the snow more wet in nature. That will probably reduce totals from just inland because of compaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Looks like all the Meso models have the same general areas as the bulleyes/screwgie zones. Good agreement this morning. Scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Thundersnow from BOS into SW Maine IMO. NAM isn't as far south east as HRRR/RAP. I think somebody will get TSSN out of this. We don't have it in the grids yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if I add it later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digityman Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 If that "jackpot" spot moves literally 5 miles up the coast it'll be an early finish at work today I'm in Portland working as well. Might be worthy of leaving a few hours early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I think somebody will get TSSN out of this. We don't have it in the grids yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if I add it later today. Check out NAM TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdgraves Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Will it get warm enough for wet snow? It's barely cracking 10º in downtown/coastal Portland currently, though I guess that's only at the surface. I'm in Portland working as well. Might be worthy of leaving a few hours early I drive a truck for work, so I'm definitely looking at calling it early. Rear wheel drive box truck already has enough trouble scooting around on the mounds of snow all over town (for some reason not cleared during this week's two parking bans). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I think somebody will get TSSN out of this. We don't have it in the grids yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if I add it later today. Should be fun later on, Commuting not so much though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I think Ray gets smoked The best will be just ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The best will be just ne. Heavy heavy snow coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 13z RAP says best snows eastern mass to maine coastline. Canal track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 It doesn't really mean much, but the 4k NAM brings a few hours of 35-40+ dbZ reflectivities up here this afternoon for a few hours. I doubt that pans out, but it could be wild for a time this afternoon. This is more like a Tyson 1st round uppercut TKO than a prolonged Ali jab session. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 13z RAP says best snows eastern mass to maine coastline. Canal track. Something to monitor. Convection firing S of LI may be messing around with this. Most meso models are just inside the Canal about 10-15 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I think this one run total NAM12 QPF image really shows you how this thing will evolve. Pretty rapid blossoming of precip later today when it approaches northeast MA. Thief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Latest run of the RAP getting awfully close to a MAULish look. This is for a point near DAW at 22z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Something to monitor. Convection firing S of LI may be messing around with this. Most meso models are just inside the Canal about 10-15 miles. Meso models are trending this into an eastern SNE event and extreme southern maine event. FWIW. New HRRR is coming in similar to RAP. NAM is like a NW outlier for the mesos. Messenger was chiming a southeast track yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 You can see where the comma head is developing, hopefully it slows just enough to crush, sometimes you get that temporary slowdown during development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Thief. I deleted all your procedures. Oops. Latest RAP looks good again. Fun times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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