TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 RGEM 6z is SE like EURO, interior NE MA crusher. 850 closes off way earlier, like over LI. RGEM is close to 6" even at BOS. 10" jackpot interior cape ann. Thank the mid levels. Drylot will not like RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 GFS has the SE track but doesn't close off until later than something like the RGEM, so more snow in Maine than north of pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 BOX map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 000FXUS61 KBOX 180906AFDBOXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA406 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014.SYNOPSIS...PLOWABLE SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LESSERAMOUNTS SOUTH AND EAST OF I-95.&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...***ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL TO IMPACT EVENING RUSH HOUR***MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THISMORNING WILL RE-INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLANDLATER TODAY. ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE IS WELL ALIGNED WITH THESHORTWAVE AND TRACKS WITH IT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THEN ASECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND TAKESCONTROL...MOVING OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRINGACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE REGION. THIS IS A QUICK MOVINGSNOWSTORM WITH SNOWFALL NOT STARTING UNTIL AFTER 8 AM IN THE WESTAND 10 AM IN THE EAST AND COMING TO AN END BY 8 PM THIS EVENING FORMOST...IF NOT ALL...LOCATIONS.THE 00Z SUITE OF MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALEPATTERN...THOUGH THE NAM IS A BIT DEEPER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THESUITE. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF TRACK/STRENGTH FOR THEFORECAST. THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT ON THE THERMAL PROFILES WITH THISSUITE OF MODELS...AND EXPECT SNOW TO BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPEACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA. THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET WILLLIKELY SWITCHOVER TO RAIN FOR AT LEAST A PART OF THE AFTERNOON.COULD SEE A SNOW/RAIN MIX FOR A TIME SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE95...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODEISLAND. THIS CUTS DOWN ON SNOW TOTALS IN THESE AREAS.THE BIG CONCERN WITH THIS STORM IS THE TIMING OF THE HIGHESTSNOWFALL RATES. SEVERAL THINGS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY SNOWFALLRATES BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OFINSTABILITY SHOWN BY STEEPENING LAPSE RATES FROM 850MB UP TO 500MB.IN ADDITION...DECENT BANDING SIGNATURE IS SHOWN IN THE FRONTOGENESISAT 850MB. FINALLY...THE BEST LIFT THROUGH THE SNOW GROWTH REGIONOCCURS BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PM. THIS WILL GREATLY IMPACT THE EVENINGRUSH HOUR.MODELS INCREASED QPF...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIREAND NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS. USED THE WPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF WHICHSEEMED TO TAKE A GOOD BLEND OF WHAT THE MODELS WERE PUTTING OUT.THIS GIVES US A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACROSS THESOUTHWEST AND CLOSE TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS THEMERRIMACK VALLEY. WITH THIS INCREASE...WE HAVE UPPED THE SNOWFALLTOTALS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEWHAMPSHIRE. WILL KEEP THE HEADLINES AS THEY ARE WITH ONEEXCEPTION...WILL ADD EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY TO THE WARNING.FINALLY...WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE INDICATEDNOT JUST IN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES BUT ALSO IN THE TOTAL TOTALS ANDOBSERVATIONS FROM EARLIER TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME POTENTIAL FORTHUNDERSNOW THIS AFTERNOON.&&.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...TONIGHT...SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 8 PM IN MOST LOCATIONS. THEEXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERESNOW MAY LINGER LATER INTO THE EVENING. AS SNOW COMES TO ANEND...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE QUICKLY WITH CLEARING SKIES.BETWEEN CLOUD COVER EARLY ON AND SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR STARTING TOSTREAM INTO THE AREA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAININ THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE COLDER NW LOCATIONS AND IN THE 20SELSEWHERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 GFS has the SE track but doesn't close off until later than something like the RGEM, so more snow in Maine than north of pike. Yeah.GFS cuts back on QPF for my area (Interior NE Mass.) Sent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Yeah.GFS cuts back on QPF for my area (Interior NE Mass.) Sent from my VS980 4G I would think GFS is not the model of choice for a scenario like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Yeah.GFS cuts back on QPF for my area (Interior NE Mass.) Sent from my VS980 4G Which model would you ride at this point,NAM? Sent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I leaned a little bit more toward the mesoscale models with this forecast package. Various 4km wrf runs...hrrr...rap...nam and 13km euro were added with slightly more weight. I think in this situation they will be handling this more "mesoscale" development a little better. The rap has been hammering away up here every run since I walked in at 10 pm last evening. The hrrr seems to be following suit. We'll see how this one goes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I leaned a little bit more toward the mesoscale models with this forecast package. Various 4km wrf runs...hrrr...rap...nam and 13km euro were added with slightly more weight. I think in this situation they will be handling this more "mesoscale" development a little better. The rap has been hammering away up here every run since I walked in at 10 pm last evening. The hrrr seems to be following suit. We'll see how this one goes... 8z HRRR is an interior SNE burial and looks good for you up there later on. RAP looks pretty good too. Really hugs the maine coast as if it knew where it was going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 NWS up to 8-10" here, that's nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I think Tolland gets 3 or 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 8z HRRR is an interior SNE burial and looks good for you up there later on. RAP looks pretty good too. Really hugs the maine coast as if it knew where it was going. It's going to the old port for some bee-ahs later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 It's going to the old port for some bee-ahs later. Damm cold here on the way to the weightroom for workouts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Things look to be coming together down near Dover where it's already been an overperformer. Still like around 6 inches from here up thru ORH.. 2-4 for BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I don't like the late shift east on some of the models overnight. If it doesn't come together in time it could be a bust for WNE (SW NH, S VT, MPM). SW ME is looking pretty good for the jack. I still like a general 4-8". Arnold has us inthe 6-8". Let's get that theta-e plume cranking and up in here please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Several TSSN reports down over Philly area and Jersey..Also out in Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I think Tolland gets 3 or 4. I'm not sure about points south, but I think the BOX map and other guidance does a good job indicating 4+ from the higher elevations of northern Tolland/Windham counties northeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Nice to see the weenie 8-10 pixels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I don't like the late shift east on some of the models overnight. If it doesn't come together in time it could be a bust for WNE (SW NH, S VT, MPM). SW ME is looking pretty good for the jack. I still like a general 4-8". Arnold has us inthe 6-8". Let's get that theta-e plume cranking and up in here please.Yeah I saw that. Most models (GFS, EURO, HRRR) have this area right on the line for the good stuff. Livin on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2014 Author Share Posted February 18, 2014 Seems to be coming in a few hours ahead of schedule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Yeah I saw that. Most models (GFS, EURO, HRRR) have this area right on the line for the good stuff. Livin on the edge.I think we'll be fine. It's just the jack shifting around. Our fun is what's over NJ/DE right now. The sooner we get the sfc/mid level centers cranking the better we'll be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Seems to be coming in a few hours ahead of schedule?The leading echoes are primarily virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Rdar filling in very nicely now over W CT with several moderate snow and <1 mile viz reports..Secondary forming off Va capes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Rdar filling in very nicely now over W CT with several moderate snow and <1 mile viz reports..Secondary forming off Va capesBob M seemed meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Bob M seemed meh Well a 4-6 inch snowfall after the last few weeks isn't a blockbuster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I don't like the late shift east on some of the models overnight. If it doesn't come together in time it could be a bust for WNE (SW NH, S VT, MPM). SW ME is looking pretty good for the jack. I still like a general 4-8". Arnold has us inthe 6-8". Let's get that theta-e plume cranking and up in here please. Yeah and I'm not sure I believe 8-10" from BOX. Thinking 6" with the speed of this thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 BOX expanded WSW further W overnight to include Greenfield and Keene but I'm still feeling maybe a 4" max here (including MPM/E Slope) the way things stand right now. This is going to get cranking too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I don't like the late shift east on some of the models overnight. If it doesn't come together in time it could be a bust for WNE (SW NH, S VT, MPM). SW ME is looking pretty good for the jack. I still like a general 4-8". Arnold has us inthe 6-8". Let's get that theta-e plume cranking and up in here please. I think I'm in a really good spot for this one, for once. Maybe not as good as a little farther NE, but still I should pull close to 6''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 In greenfield now going with 6 for here box seems to like this area was surprised to see a wsw for here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 i dont see a north push with the heavier echoes to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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