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2/18/14 snow event


weathafella

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000
FXUS61 KBOX 180906
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS SOUTH AND EAST OF I-95.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL TO IMPACT EVENING RUSH HOUR***

MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL RE-INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATER TODAY. ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE IS WELL ALIGNED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND TRACKS WITH IT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THEN A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND TAKES
CONTROL...MOVING OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE REGION. THIS IS A QUICK MOVING
SNOWSTORM WITH SNOWFALL NOT STARTING UNTIL AFTER 8 AM IN THE WEST
AND 10 AM IN THE EAST AND COMING TO AN END BY 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR
MOST...IF NOT ALL...LOCATIONS.

THE 00Z SUITE OF MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN...THOUGH THE NAM IS A BIT DEEPER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE
SUITE. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF TRACK/STRENGTH FOR THE
FORECAST. THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT ON THE THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS
SUITE OF MODELS...AND EXPECT SNOW TO BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE
ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA. THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET WILL
LIKELY SWITCHOVER TO RAIN FOR AT LEAST A PART OF THE AFTERNOON.
COULD SEE A SNOW/RAIN MIX FOR A TIME SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE
95...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE
ISLAND. THIS CUTS DOWN ON SNOW TOTALS IN THESE AREAS.

THE BIG CONCERN WITH THIS STORM IS THE TIMING OF THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL RATES. SEVERAL THINGS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
RATES BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
INSTABILITY SHOWN BY STEEPENING LAPSE RATES FROM 850MB UP TO 500MB.
IN ADDITION...DECENT BANDING SIGNATURE IS SHOWN IN THE FRONTOGENESIS
AT 850MB. FINALLY...THE BEST LIFT THROUGH THE SNOW GROWTH REGION
OCCURS BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PM. THIS WILL GREATLY IMPACT THE EVENING
RUSH HOUR.

MODELS INCREASED QPF...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS. USED THE WPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF WHICH
SEEMED TO TAKE A GOOD BLEND OF WHAT THE MODELS WERE PUTTING OUT.
THIS GIVES US A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND CLOSE TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
MERRIMACK VALLEY. WITH THIS INCREASE...WE HAVE UPPED THE SNOWFALL
TOTALS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. WILL KEEP THE HEADLINES AS THEY ARE WITH ONE
EXCEPTION...WILL ADD EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY TO THE WARNING.

FINALLY...WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE INDICATED
NOT JUST IN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES BUT ALSO IN THE TOTAL TOTALS AND
OBSERVATIONS FROM EARLIER TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSNOW THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 8 PM IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE
SNOW MAY LINGER LATER INTO THE EVENING. AS SNOW COMES TO AN
END...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE QUICKLY WITH CLEARING SKIES.
BETWEEN CLOUD COVER EARLY ON AND SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR STARTING TO
STREAM INTO THE AREA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE COLDER NW LOCATIONS AND IN THE 20S
ELSEWHERE.

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I leaned a little bit more toward the mesoscale models with this forecast package. Various 4km wrf runs...hrrr...rap...nam and 13km euro were added with slightly more weight. I think in this situation they will be handling this more "mesoscale" development a little better. The rap has been hammering away up here every run since I walked in at 10 pm last evening. The hrrr seems to be following suit. We'll see how this one goes...

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I leaned a little bit more toward the mesoscale models with this forecast package. Various 4km wrf runs...hrrr...rap...nam and 13km euro were added with slightly more weight. I think in this situation they will be handling this more "mesoscale" development a little better. The rap has been hammering away up here every run since I walked in at 10 pm last evening. The hrrr seems to be following suit. We'll see how this one goes...

8z HRRR is an interior SNE burial and looks good for you up there later on. RAP looks pretty good too. Really hugs the maine coast as if it knew where it was going.

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I don't like the late shift east on some of the models overnight. If it doesn't come together in time it could be a bust for WNE (SW NH, S VT, MPM). SW ME is looking pretty good for the jack. I still like a general 4-8". Arnold has us inthe 6-8". Let's get that theta-e plume cranking and up in here please.

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I don't like the late shift east on some of the models overnight. If it doesn't come together in time it could be a bust for WNE (SW NH, S VT, MPM). SW ME is looking pretty good for the jack. I still like a general 4-8". Arnold has us inthe 6-8". Let's get that theta-e plume cranking and up in here please.

Yeah I saw that. Most models (GFS, EURO, HRRR) have this area right on the line for the good stuff. Livin on the edge.
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Yeah I saw that. Most models (GFS, EURO, HRRR) have this area right on the line for the good stuff. Livin on the edge.

I think we'll be fine. It's just the jack shifting around. Our fun is what's over NJ/DE right now. The sooner we get the sfc/mid level centers cranking the better we'll be.
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I don't like the late shift east on some of the models overnight. If it doesn't come together in time it could be a bust for WNE (SW NH, S VT, MPM). SW ME is looking pretty good for the jack. I still like a general 4-8". Arnold has us inthe 6-8". Let's get that theta-e plume cranking and up in here please.

Yeah and I'm not sure I believe 8-10" from BOX. Thinking 6" with the speed of this thing

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I don't like the late shift east on some of the models overnight. If it doesn't come together in time it could be a bust for WNE (SW NH, S VT, MPM). SW ME is looking pretty good for the jack. I still like a general 4-8". Arnold has us inthe 6-8". Let's get that theta-e plume cranking and up in here please.

I think I'm in a really good spot for this one, for once. Maybe not as good as a little farther NE, but still I should pull close to 6''.

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