CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 That's a really nice look along the MA/NH border. This likely will be a warning event for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Indeed... was actually just going to post that. A buddy of mine from PSU is a professor out there and he's been geeking out on Twitter about the +TSSN. Pretty decent signal with a MAUL. Not a lock but the radar/obs out west make me think that we're looking good for tomorrow. Agree, looks real close for a good chunk of the area. Should pound for a few hours regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 No advisories up in SNE , hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 No advisories up in SNE , hmm Save it for the next shift? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 No advisories up in SNE , hmm Well you won't be seeing anything until the afternoon package. It would be a little strange to go from nothing to a warning, but nothing to an advisory obviously isn't unheard of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 No advisories up in SNE , hmm Prob should have started with a watch this morning and then can go adv or warning at 4:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Well you won't be seeing anything until the afternoon package. It would be a little strange to go from nothing to a warning, but nothing to an advisory obviously isn't unheard of. thanks, love when they go from nada to wsw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 So we're talking about heavy snow during/centered around the PM rush tomorrow, correct? (eastern areas) That's going to work out well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 thanks, love when they go from nada to wsw I'm sure John Q Public will love that too. Tough decisions to be made this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Hopefully we can pull an inch or so out of this...the inflow looks to stay just south and east, and the omega bust is definitely like ORH-CON-PWM axis. It'll be fun at the end of the winter to compare the number of different 3"+ events across New England this winter and see where the frequency peaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I'm sure John Q Public will love that too. Tough decisions to be made this afternoon. Especially after the last one was a quasi-bust. This looks to have a lot more societal impact than the Blizzard warnings, though it probably won't be hyped quite like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Looks like we're good for 3-6 inland, 2-5 coast around BOS, 4-8 NNE. Trace-8" in NNE would be my call, haha. I really like interior Essex County, MA in this one. Andover, Methuen, maybe Topsfield...they always seem to do well on the PNS statements in these events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Both models look great for moisture advection up the valley, particularly during the transfer. Deerfield to Brattleboro especially might benefit from WAA snows initially, later wrap around in the comma head. But as the latter is more likely to downslope or miss parts of the valley further south, seeing the former is a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Box starting to put up watches for parts of Mass and NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 WSW up for ORH and interior NE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 WSW up for ORH and interior NE MA. It wasn't too long after I posted that we'll have to wait until the afternoon package that BOX sent me a chat letting me know those were going up. Oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 This keeps trending stronger with omega and qpf. Not like the other night when areas could get whiffed. The only issue is taint imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 WSW up for ORH and interior NE MA. I thnking 2-5 for BOS. Your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 New box map shows a large area of 4-6. They did move the <1 inch line up to split Bristol and Plymouth counties in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 It wasn't too long after I posted that we'll have to wait until the afternoon package that BOX sent me a chat letting me know those were going up. Oops. Good thing you're a powerful person in the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I thnking 2-5 for BOS. Your thoughts? Yeah I think that is good. Might be like 2-3 at Logan and 5 for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 This is one of those things where a delay of 45min-1hr and a 10 miles change in low track is important to BOS and immediate srn suburbs. RASN line is basically where the low tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Studied the BUFKIT data for Orange over to Worcester ... Boston and Beverly. Looks like the best omega drilling into the sn growth region of the sounding is between ORH/BOS using the NAM (I didn't check the GFS input). Somewhere in that zone gets over 25 @ > 90% RH into the middle of the sn growth band for about a 1.5 to 2 hour span. Could be some very good snow fall rates if these data inputs off the NAM are correct ...always a risk there. But all four sites do well for a short duration period of moderate to potentially heavy snow. The blend using all available guidance provides for a high confidence ... it doesn't look like the region will be spared. There are some uncertainties as to how significant, however. These compact sort of "meso-beta" scaled systems are fickle little beasts. Anywhere that ends up with a thunderstorm could get a 5" hour book ended by a couple of 1.5ers, where two towns over gets half that total. Or, in the case Dec 2005, the whole thing gets well organized and you get a micro-version of synoptic scaled bomb, replete with comma head and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Have not been tracking this one, nice to see another 5+" event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Tip just dropped everyones favorite analog. Biddeford or Andover? I can be in either locale for the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Here's what I just came up with. NAM this morning was very nice & the GFS was good as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 This thing without a doubt is going to do screwy things...it just will. I almost see two max zones...one near the deformation area which may be western CT and up through the Berks and into nrn MA/SE NH....maybe another near the low and just inland with max low level convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 This thing without a doubt is going to do screwy things...it just will. I almost see two max zones...one near the deformation area which may be western CT and up through the Berks and into nrn MA/SE NH....maybe another near the low and just inland with max low level convergence. Def could see western CT up into the Berks getting smoked and interior NE MA into SE NH should be another sweet spot...and in fact, that area should come out with the highest totals I would think...especially if those llvl circulations close off early enough. The GFS really increases sfc frontogenesis across interior NE MA during the afternoon/early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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