Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 LOL, dusting to half inch. OOOOHHH. C'mon. Seriously...who had an inch. Looked great on radar here for a couple hours...and we managed only a meager 1/8" If NAM is right...interior CT is looking nice tomorrow. Looks like 0.8" QPF along the shoreline...but how much falls before we warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Seriously...who had an inch. Looked great on radar here for a couple hours...and we managed only a meager 1/8" If NAM is right...interior CT is looking nice tomorrow. Looks like 0.8" QPF along the shoreline...but how much falls before we warm? NAM verbatim (lol) is pretty much an isothermal snow bomb for you. Maybe a bit iffy toward GON but that would produce for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Yeah you can see that we may struggle with snow growth for quite some time south of the Pike... but could put down a pretty impressive 1-2 hour window of snow when omega is deeper through the column. The GFS actually has the DGZ totally dried out for a window (NAM doesn't) so that could mess with thing. One thing I like for my viewing area is that boundary layer issues for the coast seem to have been wiped away on overnight runs. Some of those runs yesterday were a torch. Even GON may put down a couple inches. Probably a paste bomb for the valley/shore with us being isothermal around -1C for a good 100mb. GFS is still toasty. I didn't get a chance to look at the non American guidance...but I take it that it's colder than the GFS? NAM usually does well with temp profiles in these borderline events...and it certainly looks promising for staying mostly frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Just noticed a WSW is up for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Yeah you can see that we may struggle with snow growth for quite some time south of the Pike... but could put down a pretty impressive 1-2 hour window of snow when omega is deeper through the column. The GFS actually has the DGZ totally dried out for a window (NAM doesn't) so that could mess with thing. One thing I like for my viewing area is that boundary layer issues for the coast seem to have been wiped away on overnight runs. Some of those runs yesterday were a torch. Even GON may put down a couple inches. Probably a paste bomb for the valley/shore with us being isothermal around -1C for a good 100mb. Yup...you were correct...I certainly overplayed that warmth. Have to do a complete 180 from what I did yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 GFS is still toasty. I didn't get a chance to look at the non American guidance...but I take it that it's colder than the GFS? NAM usually does well with temp profiles in these borderline events...and it certainly looks promising for staying mostly frozen Yeah just pulled up the GFS bufkit soundings... it is pretty warm. I didn't expect it to be that warm based off the maps I was looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Drag special LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/ ***TUESDAY NEEDS TO BE MONITORED FOR ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SUBSTANTIAL SNOW EVENT I78 REGION NORTHWARD*** 500MB: ENERGETIC FLOW WITH MULTIPLE RELATIVELY STRONG SHORT WAVES PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA AS THE MEAN TROUGH IN THE EAST EVOLVES WESTWARD TO A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND...AXISED FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES THE TREND FOR A BRIEF SIGNIFICANT WARMUP FOR MAYBE A FEW DAYS HERE LATE THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES: SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES NEARLY 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY BEFORE EASING TO ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY... THEN ABOUT 3 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DAILY WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. THE FORECAST BASIS...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT-USED MOSTLY THE COLDER GFS TEMP GUIDANCE WHICH WAS A CLOSER MATCH TO THE 12Z/15 ECMWF MOS AND 2M TEMPS. TUESDAY USED MAINLY THE 12Z/15 ECMWF/GGEM COMBO WITH NAM/GFS SUPPORT BUT ONLY ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES! NO BIG WARMUP FORESEEN TUESDAY...IN FACT THIS COULD BE A DAY WITH 0.5 TO 0.9 WATER EQUIVALENT SNOW! bump in Pickles rump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Hey did you see parts of western southern CT had an inch of snow last nite? Tomorrow looks like a day that is going to produce for most of New Eng You must mean this one report of around an inch in Fairfield County? Sometimes it's okay to step away and realize it doesn't snow every day or that a dusting is just a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 We had a big storm coming..I don't think it's worth sounding the alarms over....it was just a mention. Drag does like to get excited over 1-3" deals. not even worth a comment NNE is going to get a great storm, hits will pile up for them now, love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Yeah just pulled up the GFS bufkit soundings... it is pretty warm. I didn't expect it to be that warm based off the maps I was looking at. They are still warm (at least for BDL) but it still looks like it would have a pretty decent thump...not bad looking omega getting into the best snow growth zone late morning through early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 What a nuke. To piggy back on what you were saying yesterday, I took some GFS images of the theta-e plume. You want to be on the nose of that plume, and I highlighted the axis and the area I would expect the best snows to develop based on the GFS prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 NAM verbatim (lol) is pretty much an isothermal snow bomb for you. Maybe a bit iffy toward GON but that would produce for sure. The NAM is near warning criteria for us lol. Goes pretty bonkers with the lift and has lapse rates nearing 7 C/KM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 We did have an inch. I was so caught off guard on my way to dinner that i ran off the road into a snow bank. #hitskeepcoming People in the restaurant talking about worst winter they cAn remember and that they feel like its been snowing every day since thanksgiving. Another little one will send the public over the edge.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I think it was yesterday or the day before Ryan said he would use the NAM and finds it helpful on events such as this phil has you with a 6 spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The NAM is near warning criteria for us lol. Goes pretty bonkers with the lift and has lapse rates nearing 7 C/KM!I only pay attention if it includes snowThunder possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I hate these setups for the Cape and Islands. Low always goes inland or over us bringing in the warmth from a southeasterly wind. Rain here it comes. THen the warm up into the 40s and 50s, with more rain this weekend followed by cold dry air once again. yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 phil has you with a 6 spotHes typically over conservative too. I think 4-8 is reasonable seems like most of interior SNE is in a good spot for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Hes typically over conservative too. I think 4-8 is reasonable seems like most of interior SNE is in a good spot for this I think 4-6 is good for you. anything more tan 6 would be probably where Oceanst has it outlined I think. I actually like 5-6 for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Here's Phil's map http://www.capecodweather.net/weather-blog/tuesday-snowfall-forecast/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Good map IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 To piggy back on what you were saying yesterday, I took some GFS images of the theta-e plume. 18z.jpg 00z.jpg 06z.jpg You want to be on the nose of that plume, and I highlighted the axis and the area I would expect the best snows to develop based on the GFS prog. that's a thing of beauty !!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Ray, Jay, SNH, Dom are in a good area. I look to get 4-6" I think but I think ASH does better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Would 2-4 be unreasonable here? Kind of warm or at least marginal, no? Probably 2-3 where you are and then a little rain before ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The NAM is near warning criteria for us lol. Goes pretty bonkers with the lift and has lapse rates nearing 7 C/KM! Let's keep winds like these around for the next few months eh? OceanSt made a good post earlier about the upstream radar look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 GFS is pretty sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 GFS looks colder than 6z for coastal areas and looks juicier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 +TSSNPL at CMI (Champaign, IL) and that PL could just be heavily rimed flakes. Good sign all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 +TSSNPL at CMI (Champaign, IL) and that PL could just be heavily rimed flakes. Good sign all around. Indeed... was actually just going to post that. A buddy of mine from PSU is a professor out there and he's been geeking out on Twitter about the +TSSN. Pretty decent signal with a MAUL. Not a lock but the radar/obs out west make me think that we're looking good for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 GFS is pretty sweet.That's a really nice look along the MA/NH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 NAM had some elevated CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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