Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 On 2/17/2014 at 9:47 PM, dendrite said: 18z GFS reels in the QPF a bit too. Looks like 0.40-0.50" in the max zone. as an FYI GFS total QPF is the same across this puppies path but in this puppies path you get this] 0338 PM SNOW 2 SW LA PORTE 41.59N 86.73W 02/17/2014 M3.2 INCH LA PORTE IN COCORAHS 3.2 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE PAST 75 MINUTES. SMALL FLAKES GREW TO LARGE FLAKES...NOW GRANULAR. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pjr Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Harvey Leonard says 1-3 for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 On 2/17/2014 at 10:02 PM, pjr said: Harvey Leonard says 1-3 for Boston. Maybe right at Logan. I think 2-4 with spot 4-5 interior parts of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Mesoscale models should handle this better wrt qpf amounts i would think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 On 2/17/2014 at 10:22 PM, CoastalWx said: Maybe right at Logan. I think 2-4 with spot 4-5 interior parts of the city. He had the dividing line between 1-3 and 3-6 right over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 On 2/17/2014 at 10:02 PM, pjr said: Harvey Leonard says 1-3 for Boston. BL issues FTL Hope BOS paste bombs to 3" Maybe Brookline and N station tickle 3.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Unless this just craps the bed, dynamics as modeled should give at least 1-3 right at the water. The common could get like 2-4. The airmass starting out is much colder than last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 IF we get a nice weenie band going with the H7 low developing fast, then we could def see some weenie 7-8" totals up in N ORH county over to NE MA/S NH. First time I've seen the model data today afetr being out all day and I'm impressed with the trends in the mid-levels. The model conesnus on these features is nice to see after the cluster on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 On 2/17/2014 at 10:23 PM, cpick79 said: Mesoscale models should handle this better wrt qpf amounts i would thinkGFS and NAM came more in line with the Euro. I think a general 4-8" is good. It's going to be tough to pull off 0.75"+ of liquid in 6+ hours like the really hires models are spitting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 On 2/17/2014 at 10:30 PM, ORH_wxman said: IF we get a nice weenie band going with the H7 low developing fast, then we could def see some weenie 7-8" totals up in N ORH county over to NE MA/S NH. First time I've seen the model data today afetr being out all day and I'm impressed with the trends in the mid-levels. The model conesnus on these features is nice to see after the cluster on Saturday. nice quick OT question where were you skiing? ORH to Dendrite should take a good pounding on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 On 2/17/2014 at 10:31 PM, dendrite said: GFS and NAM came more in line with the Euro. I think a general 4-8" is good. It's going to be tough to pull off 0.75"+ of liquid in 6+ hours like the really hires models are spitting out. What type of rates would that be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 See no reason to change Phil's map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 On 2/17/2014 at 10:32 PM, Ginxy said: nice quick OT question where were you skiing? ORH to Dendrite should take a good pounding on this one. Was at WaWa today..big crowds, but the conditions were awesome..got to ski in the woods a bit as much as I could get away with. I think the BOX map is pretty reasonable based on what I looked at just now on guidance...most guidance is pretty darn close to eachother, so nice to see agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 On 2/17/2014 at 10:34 PM, Damage In Tolland said: See no reason to change Phil's mapyep, let's see who gets under a meso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 On 2/17/2014 at 10:33 PM, SnowMan said: What type of rates would that be?There could be a few hours of 1-2"/hr in the heaviest bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Uhm, the radar representation over the midwest is very impressive. FYI, that is not really what will be hitting us. Our precip originates off the Delmarva. There may be some weenies tonight wondering why the primary low is somewhat losing energy later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 On 2/17/2014 at 10:35 PM, ORH_wxman said: Was at WaWa today..big crowds, but the conditions were awesome..got to ski in the woods a bit as much as I could get away with. I think the BOX map is pretty reasonable based on what I looked at just now on guidance...most guidance is pretty darn close to eachother, so nice to see agreement. nice saw Mommas pics on FB,with uniform qpf depends on who gets meso scale enhanced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 On 2/17/2014 at 10:33 PM, SnowMan said: What type of rates would that be? .75" in 6 hours is a bit more than .10" per hour. Depending on ratio's its 1-2" snows per hour, good thump! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 On 2/17/2014 at 10:36 PM, Ginxy said: nice saw Mommas pics on FB,with uniform qpf depends on who gets meso scale enhanced Yep...best chance for a mesoband to me looks in the 6-8 area on BOX because of the developing H7 low..but everyone is going to see a nice slug and there's going to be embedded heavy snow rate in that slug. It might just try and hold on a slight bit longer up there...qpf is slightly higher up in that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 On 2/17/2014 at 10:35 PM, ORH_wxman said: Was at WaWa today..big crowds, but the conditions were awesome..got to ski in the woods a bit as much as I could get away with. I think the BOX map is pretty reasonable based on what I looked at just now on guidance...most guidance is pretty darn close to eachother, so nice to see agreement. Do you guys have a link to the Albany map? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 For Will..Phil's map WEATHER BLOG By PhilFebruary 17, 20140 CommentsRead More → Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 On 2/17/2014 at 10:37 PM, wxeyeNH said: .75" in 6 hours is a bit more than .10" per hour.That's not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 On 2/17/2014 at 9:05 PM, dendrite said: Warnings are up in S NH and SW ME too. Belknap gets a WWA. It's probably just the difference between a 5" and 6" avg across the counties. I could have stretched Belknap, but I just didn't have a lot of the county above 6". We can always expand if needed. Really the product text is the difference between 4-6" and 4-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 On 2/17/2014 at 10:39 PM, Damage In Tolland said: For Will..Phil's map WEATHER BLOG By PhilFebruary 17, 20140 CommentsRead More → Pretty much agree on that. I would expand that 3-5 into part of worcester county, limiting 6 or so once you get to HubbDave and Whiteminster. But, that's pretty much noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 On 2/17/2014 at 10:39 PM, Damage In Tolland said: For Will..Phil's map WEATHER BLOG By PhilFebruary 17, 20140 CommentsRead More → Nice...I'd probably extend the 6" up through SE NH though and reconnect it with the one in Maine. That seems to be a prime spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 On 2/17/2014 at 9:09 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I don't think it matters what type of advisory you're in on this one. the advsiory areas and the warning areas all will see an avg of 6-7 inches ..with the 8-10 amounts in SNH It does matter. Advisories are more of a 4-6" deal and warnings are above 6". By definition if the advisory area averages 6-7" it should be a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Apparently many are lower in NE MA than just west in rt 2 region. I think people are overplaying the warmth there specifically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 On 2/17/2014 at 10:42 PM, ORH_wxman said: Nice...I'd probably extend the 6" up through SE NH though and reconnect it with the one in Maine. That seems to be a prime spot. he tickled up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Interesting. BOX p n c for me is 3-7" for the day. Big range Phil's new map is sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The euro was pretty cold actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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