Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Even NAM's lookin like a torch on Friday. severe storms...? hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 I think its just noise, the RGEM looks generally the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 Out of its range but the RAP looks like a drier version of the 12z NAM... Waiting on 20z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Meh, I think this ends up somewhere between the over-amped 12z NAM and the under-amped 18z NAM. 2" to 4" in the Philly area still seems good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I think its just noise, the RGEM looks generally the same The RGEM was never as ridiculous as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I think its just noise, the RGEM looks generally the same The SREF's did come in a little less qpf. Looks like we're coming to a compromise of about about 2-4 inches. Good call by Mt. Holly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 The RGEM was never as ridiculous as the NAM. Oh I agree, It was obvious the NAM was way overdone, I think come 00z it'll meet it in the middle, 2-3 for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Interesting comments from Drag on the long term : FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITHPOTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA 45 MPH GUSTS AND IF THUNDER...POTENTIAL FOR SVR IN NJ/DE WITH 60 TO 70 KT OF WIND FROM 850-700MB. CLEARING LATE. MLCAPE RIGHT NOW IS MODELED UNDER 300J...MAINLY DELAWARE.A QUESTION THIS DAY WILL BE WHAT TIME THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE.AT THIS TIME...EXPECT THE FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGIONFRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT THIS TIMING WILL MEAN FOR THE REGIONSWEATHER IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LARGE MAX TEMPERATUREGRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY ONLY IN THE 40SLEHIGH VALLEY NORTHWARD THROUGH NW NJ AND THE POCONOS TO THE 60SIN SOUTHERN DE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Final call for tomorrow for central Bucks County....nothing has changed....a nuisance 1-3" event which melts by 3pm due to highs in the mid 40s. I'll take the 'warmup' sacrifice this week as the pattern reloads for next week which looks promising in terms of cold and storminess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 Latest meso guidance isn't looking good, the 12z NAM had that secondary moisture over us, however the RAP/HRRR are developing that SE of I-95....Still, based on where the 500mb low is I think there is a chance it forms more NW...We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Latest meso guidance isn't looking good, the 12z NAM had that secondary moisture over us, however the RAP/HRRR are developing that SE of I-95....Still, based on where the 500mb low is I think there is a chance it forms more NW...We'll see. I recall at this range they were forecasting 10"+ at PHL for round 2 of the Thursday storm and were at one point or another throwing those totals to the SE as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 If you like snow... don't look at the 0Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Well, at this point I think this threat is pretty much over, looks like a coating to maybe an inch now. I'd expect Mt Holly to drop advisories unless we see drastic changes with the short range models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Seems this always happens with these storms........The models a couple of days ago had the right idea with the precip dying over the mountains, not sure how I got sucked into the idea of a 2-4 inch storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 18, 2014 Author Share Posted February 18, 2014 Seems this always happens with these storms........The models a couple of days ago had the right idea with the precip dying over the mountains, not sure how I got sucked into the idea of a 2-4 inch storm. That wasn't the reason the models have gone with less moisture. The 12z NAM had the developing coastal much farther NW, it showed Philly getting very heavy snow during the dawn hours. It backed off at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Already down to 22 degrees here in Marlboro, NJ Monmouth County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I'm really not sure what Mt Holly is seeing with this event, their updated (9:20) WWA still calls for 3-5" for the N&W burbs. Am I the only one who is confused here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 At this point I'll be impressed if TTN gets 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 At this point I'll be impressed if TTN gets 2" I've adjusted my expectations to 1" here, but I'll gladly take anything over that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Well, at this point I think this threat is pretty much over, looks like a coating to maybe an inch now. I'd expect Mt Holly to drop advisories unless we see drastic changes with the short range models. maybe the HRRR will come through for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 maybe the HRRR will come through for us. Well, HRRR did terribly on part 2 on Thursday, hopefully it continues to be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I'm not great at reading the RGEM maps but it sure looks like it dried up too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Let's see if HRRR's gonna be right. It has the heaviest precip from around 5 to 7. 1" to 2" widespread..then it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Well, HRRR did terribly on part 2 on Thursday, hopefully it continues to be wrong It is wrong. Look at the radar, that heavy band is setting up nicely. The NWS snowfall map looks great too me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 It is wrong. Look at the radar, that heavy band is setting up nicely. The NWS snowfall map looks great too me. Radar is overdoing that band. Lots of virga on the front. It will diminish as it approaches KDIX simply because the radar beam from there is getting lower and lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Looking good for a quick hitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Radar is overdoing that band. Lots of virga on the front. It will diminish as it approaches KDIX simply because the radar beam from there is getting lower and lower. 3" in N MD is not to shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 3" in N MD is not to shabby. At your house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 HRRR total snowfall. (Weenie stripe of two to three IMBY, we'll see.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Anyone know how how far east it's actually snowing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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