RedSky Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 can't believe my son may have another snow day. snow days thurs/fri last week, off today for pres. day Was just contemplating the school situation that is unbelievable I am going with Glenn's 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 can't believe my son may have another snow day. snow days thurs/fri last week, off today for pres. day My kids had to go to school today to make up some days lost. This next event is coming at the worst possible time for decision makers too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I'm still thinkin thundersnow....again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 can't believe my son may have another snow day. snow days thurs/fri last week, off today for pres. day Think about when you were a kid...this is heaven. A 6 day weekend...basically Christmas/Spring break. T minus 5.7" to hit 60" seasonal total for Philly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Think about when you were a kid...this is heaven. A 6 day weekend...basically Christmas/Spring break. T minus 5.7" to hit 60" seasonal total for Philly! and now i'm a parent, 2 working parents trying to work out the schedule. epic winter continues.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Wxsim with 12z data has snow arriving and getting heavy quickly by 3am with it all done by 10am with around 4.5" to 6.0" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Wxsim with 12z data has snow arriving and getting heavy quickly by 3am with it all done by 10am with around 4.5" to 6.0" of snow This would get me past 70" and you well toward 80" for the season. 95" is the all time record I think you said... With the pattern reverting after this week, that doesn't seem to be totally out of the realm, although the 95" was probably measured in Coatesville, so your location was probably well over 100" that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 For what its worth, WPC says throw out the NAM http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPMENTIMPACTING NEW ENGLAND ON TUE~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: NON 12Z NAM COMPROMISECONFIDENCE: AVERAGETHE 12Z NAM/GFS HAVE BOTH TRENDED SLOWER OVER THE PAST 3 CYCLESWITH THE SHORTWAVE IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST TUE WHILE THE 00ZECMWF/UKMET/CMC DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF A TREND. THE LATEST MODELS ARENOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOWEXPECTED TO REDEVELOP NEAR LONG ISLAND ON TUE...BUT THE 12Z NAMAND 09Z SREF ARE ON THE EDGE OF THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLESPREAD IN BEING STRONGER AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE LOW-MIDLEVEL WAVE. FOR THIS REASON...A NON NAM COMPROMISE IS PREFERREDWITH ONLY AVERAGE CONFIDENCE NOTING THAT THE NAM IS A LOWPROBABILITY SOLUTION...BUT NOT A NO PROBABILITY SOLUTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Yep - I measured 86.6" in 09/10 but the all-timer is1898/99 with 95.0" - the way the pattern is shaping up we might get close to the all-time record or 3rd place - right now we are in 6th place here is the rankings Rank Season Snowfall 1 1898-99 95.0 2 2009-10 86.6 3 1995-96 81.9 4 1904-05 79.7 5 1909-10 76.8 6 2013-14 72.0 7 1906-07 71.8 8 2002-03 61.0 9 1977-78 59.8 10 1986-87 59.3 This would get me past 70" and you well toward 80" for the season. 95" is the all time record I think you said... With the pattern reverting after this week, that doesn't seem to be totally out of the realm, although the 95" was probably measured in Coatesville, so your location was probably well over 100" that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Just saw the Euro and I am comfortable sticking with my 1-3" call for central Bucks County. Nam is likely overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Just saw the Euro and I am comfortable sticking with my 1-3" call for central Bucks County. Nam is likely overdone. Euro stayed dry? Good. PHL just needs 0.1 of an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Euro stayed dry? Good. PHL just needs 0.1 of an inch.about .2 generally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I meant 0.1 of an inch of snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 yesterday I thought coating-2 was reasonable... today it seems that 2 is a reasonable baseline with allowances up to 5. thoughts are for ttn-area only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 What was the timing of the euro...earler runs had precip starting later and thus less snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Euro stayed dry? Good. PHL just needs 0.1 of an inch. Euro is better than that, looks like about 2-3 for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Euro timing is about the same as everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Euro has the lowest QPF, about 2" of snow IMO. So 2" to 4" seems reasonable for Philly and the immediate suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Euro is better than that, looks like about 2-3 for us. 0.1 inches of snow at PHL breaks 1898-99 for 3rd place in recorded history. I have issues with temps although even an inch and a half last storm was enough to cause major road problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 0.1 inches of snow at PHL breaks 1898-99 for 3rd place in recorded history. I have issues with temps although even an inch and a half last storm was enough to cause major road problems. PHL should get their 0.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 For reference: PHL's snowiest winters: 1. 78.7" 2009-10 2. 62.5" 1995-96 3. 55.4" 1898-99 and 2013-14 5. 54.9" 1977-78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Mt Holly going 3-6 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ240 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-103>106-180700-/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0012.140218T0800Z-140218T1800Z/SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...TRENTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN240 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM ESTTUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, THE POCONOS, LEHIGHVALLEY, BERKS COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN PHILADELPHIA SUBURBS FORSNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.* TIMING...SNOW SHOULD COME IN RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AND FALL MODERATETO HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE. SNOW SHOULDEND CLOSE TO NOON ON TUESDAY.* IMPACTS...ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES ARE LIKELY TO OCCURDURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. THIS WILL MAKE DRIVING AND PLOWINGDIFFICULT. THE ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL CAUSE MORE STRAIN ONWEAKENED STRUCTURES INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR COLLAPSES. ISOLATEDPOWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES WHILE ITSSNOWING, RISING ABOVE FREEZING LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY, EXCEPTIN THE POCONOS.* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN HALF A MILE AT TIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 So the WWA's are out...3-6" poss. for a good part of area n+w of Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 2-4 for phl Mt Holly Winter Weather AdvisoryURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ240 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-101-102-180700-/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0012.140218T0800Z-140218T1600Z/NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE240 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM ESTTUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERNDELMARVA THROUGH THE LOCAL PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA FORSNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...POSSIBLY A TRACE.* TIMING...THE SNOW WILL ARRIVE IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ONTUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL FALL MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMESDURING THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING COMMUTE. A CHANGE TOFREEZING RAIN OR RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITATION INTENSITYLESSENS LATER IN THE MORNING.* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY DURINGTHE HEIGHT OF THE EVENT. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE MORNINGCOMMUTE AND IMPACT BOTH TRAVELING AND PLOWING.* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30 DEGREES WHILE ITS SNOWING, RISING ABOVEFREEZING LATER IN THE DAY.* VISIBILITIES...AROUND HALF A MILE AT TIMES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW AND POSSIBLYFREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILEDRIVING. EXPECT LONGER COMMUTING TIMES. DO NOT TAILGATE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Mt Holly going 3-6 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 240 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014 NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-103>106-180700- /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0012.140218T0800Z-140218T1800Z/ SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX- WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN... FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...TRENTON... JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM... EASTON...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE... CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN 240 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, THE POCONOS, LEHIGH VALLEY, BERKS COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN PHILADELPHIA SUBURBS FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. * TIMING...SNOW SHOULD COME IN RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AND FALL MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE. SNOW SHOULD END CLOSE TO NOON ON TUESDAY. * IMPACTS...ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. THIS WILL MAKE DRIVING AND PLOWING DIFFICULT. THE ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL CAUSE MORE STRAIN ON WEAKENED STRUCTURES INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR COLLAPSES. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES WHILE ITS SNOWING, RISING ABOVE FREEZING LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY, EXCEPT IN THE POCONOS. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN HALF A MILE AT TIMES. nothing unexpected there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 And then the 18Z NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 And then the 18Z NAM... .....AND? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 And then the 18Z NAM... It cut back from its too high 12z totals, but still not bad. the largest difference I saw is that 12z it looked like h5 closed off, this run it didn't . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 .....AND? 70% reduction in QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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