Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 European has been backing off from the idea of a big snow Tuesday.what did the euro show for the long range Ray? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 what did the euro show for the long range Ray? Chance of snow next Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 what did the euro show for the long range Ray? Nice discussion going on in the MA forum. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42764-february-mediumlong-range-disco-2/page-18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Chance of snow next Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Its what he wanted to know, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Its what he wanted to know, isn't it? pretty much looking to see if the pattern reloads and we have any more shots as advertised on the 0z. I thank you Ray :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 pretty much looking to see if the pattern reloads and we have any more shots as advertised on the 0z. I thank you Ray :-) Deep trough digs over the eastern two thirds of the country. Front may stall to the southeast and allow waves of low pressure to ride up, potentially bringing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Deep trough digs over the eastern two thirds of the country. Front may stall to the southeast and allow waves of low pressure to ride up, potentially bringing snow.thank you kind sir :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Deep trough digs over the eastern two thirds of the country. Front may stall to the southeast and allow waves of low pressure to ride up, potentially bringing snow. Yep looks like we watch Feb 23rd to Feb 28th could be something lurking around in this time period.... NAO near neutral... AO going negative, PNA going Positive... and MJO maybe loading up with the Southern Jet. I think this winter has one more punch or possibly two before giving up the roost. Ray seems like you tell it how it is which is much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Yep looks like we watch Feb 23rd to Feb 28th could be something lurking around in this time period.... NAO near neutral... AO going negative, PNA going Positive... and MJO maybe loading up with the Southern Jet. I think this winter has one more punch or possibly two before giving up the roost. Ray seems like you tell it how it is which is much appreciated. The question is Ray, have you looked into potentially booking any flights home during that period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Well the 18z Wxsim increased snow a bit again now looking at about 2" of snow just in time for the Tuesday AM commute. Also again shows less of a warm up with highs no greater than 44 and snow depth down to 17" by Saturday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 18z RGEM bumped up totals from I-95 & NW. JMA still has like .75-1.00 QPF but that is out on its own obviously. I like 1-2" for the city, and 2-4" for the burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I think this winter has one more punch or possibly two before giving up the roost.. In a winter like this I have to believe that's an understatement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 thoughts on thundersnow chances...Tuesday morn...? SE Quadrant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 6z 4km NAM drops .5+ all snow for Philly...FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 6z 4km NAM drops .5+ all snow for Philly...FWIW Thank you! Wasn't the NAM dry over the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 Kamu, how the NAM performed over the weekend has little bearing on this storm...I am actually excited for tonight. Snow growth looks pretty good on the NAM, it might should snow fairly heavy for a few hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Kamu, how the NAM performed over the weekend has little bearing on this storm...I am actually excited for tonight. Snow growth looks pretty good on the NAM, it might should snow fairly heavy for a few hours...I guess the $64 question is "can this storm over-perform" like so many this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Latest Wxsim for NW Chesco with the 6z NAM but still 0z GFS has the snowfall backup to around 3" with it briefly heavy just before daybreak - should be all over by 10am with temps no higher then 26 degrees...we do show a high of 33 degrees tomorrow!! Highest forecasted temp during the "warm-up" now 44 degrees.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Holding firmly to my 1-3" for Warminster. Looks like a repeat of Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Very different air mass from Saturday and at night...it should accumulate a lot easier that Saturday, especially early on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 Holding firmly to my 1-3" for Warminster. Looks like a repeat of Saturday. Very different air mass from Saturday and at night...it should accumulate a lot easier that Saturday, especially early on Yep, Ralph this is all about precip, based on everything I'm seeing Philly won't warmup until the precip is out of here. There also may be some mesoscale bands near us that might put down 1-2"/hr type snows. Still 1-3" is probably a good call. I just wouldn't be surprised if someone in our region sees 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Very different air mass from Saturday and at night...it should accumulate a lot easier that Saturday, especially early on And it won't initially be snowing during daylight hours, that should help out with accumulation, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 This is pretty damn good...precip-type maps show this is all snow from I-95 NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Kamu, how the NAM performed over the weekend has little bearing on this storm...I am actually excited for tonight. Snow growth looks pretty good on the NAM, it might should snow fairly heavy for a few hours... Sounds good to me! I was referring to my perception that the NAM wasn't showing much qpf for this upcoming event yesterday, and thinking that if it's trending towards more qpf that's a good thing (even if "it's the NAM"). My excitement level has varied more with the qpf trends than with possible temperature issues. I think there's a good chance most of what we get will be snow, so more qpf is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 This is pretty damn good...precip-type maps show this is all snow from I-95 NW 33hr.gif The low that's shown off the Delaware coast, is that the same one that was modeled to form off of New Jersey/Long Island yesterday? That's a much better location now if so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 Philly may even do better than the NW burbs because they get precip from the initial burst and then some coastal influence. I don't see anyone north of I-95 going above 32 until the precip is over. There may even be a 30mins-1hr of some really, really have snow around 7am or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Use caution with those hi-res maps. We see how they performed with the past 2 systems. They are good at showing mesoscale banding but not so great with locating where exactly those bands setup. Likely will be n and e of phl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 NAM is a big hit for the city. .5+ temps don't rise until the precip is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 4km out to 13 hours, will get a good idea on hourly temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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