Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Nam looms tasty BUT we may have just gotten nam'd. Will wait for gfs and others. Sticking with 1-3" for Warminster attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 The NAM sim radar has 35+DBZ sitting over the city and our region from 4am to 7am... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 On 2/17/2014 at 2:00 PM, Highzenberg said: NAM is a big hit for the city. .5+ temps don't rise until the precip is over.It is a nice run from even DC n/e. Really blossoms the precip with the mesolow secondary popping around tbe Delmarva. Reminds of that clipper that bombed last year that gave Dover 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 WOW 4km NAM is a HUGE hit, the heavy precip ohelps keep the surface cool, even for people SE of I-95...big time hit for the city especially. Temps don't rise until the precip is over like I've been saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 Parts of our area get .75 or even higher, showing like 35-45DBZ for a couple hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 12z NAM is a bigger hit although a bit less qpf (.50 vs .64) snow wise N and W of the city due to the marginal boundary layer and surface temps.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 We may jackpot compared to the other cities...DC less moisture, NYC, warm air, Boston warm air...We get good moisture from the initial band, and coastal helps us stay just cool enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 On 2/17/2014 at 2:53 PM, Highzenberg said: We may jackpot compared to the other cities...DC less moisture, NYC, warm air, Boston warm air...We get good moisture from the initial band, and coastal helps us stay just cool enough agreed but this is really a close call..as evidenced by the NAM map below... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 On 2/17/2014 at 2:54 PM, RowanBrandon said: Looks like a solid 2" to 4" for Philly and the NW suburbs. I'm considering bumping up expectations, but at this point I'm staying with the same prediction as Steve (aka Ralph Wiggum) of 1" to 3" for the city and immediate suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 I would of expected that snow map to be higher for the city...RGEM looks exactly like NAM thru 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 On 2/17/2014 at 2:57 PM, JCT777 said: Looks like a solid 2" to 4" for Philly and the NW suburbs. I'm considering bumping up expectations, but at this point I'm staying with the same prediction as Steve (aka Ralph Wiggum) of 1" to 3" for the city and immediate suburbs.I'm waiting for the remainder of the 12z suite before possibly bumping up totals. 1-3" seems good for now tho. Glad to see a solid poster agrees :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 RGEM hour by hour maps are out to 8 hours...will post when they come out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 RGEM big hit for Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Temps remain a big problem for the City - S and E.....that is why accums are lower then N an W....that said if it comes in pre-dawn that will help the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 RGEM choked on the last two events so I'm not taking it seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 When the 18z RGEM came out before the CCB last storm those hour by hour maps still didn't have Philly going over to snow until the time that it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 NAM & RGEM on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 On 2/17/2014 at 3:14 PM, Rib said: RGEM choked on the last two events so I'm not taking it seriously. trends are our friend here, i like our location for this kind of storm....but the gradient between accumulating snow and slop will still be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 Sorry Rib Do you want a ride to work tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 So far this morning models have stronger secondary development - with phl in favorable position just NW of track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 On 2/17/2014 at 3:14 PM, ChescoPaWxman said: Temps remain a big problem for the City - S and E.....that is why accums are lower then N an W....that said if it comes in pre-dawn that will help the city NW Chesco locales with elevation FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 On 2/17/2014 at 3:40 PM, chubbs said: So far this morning models have stronger secondary development - with phl in favorable position just NW of track good point. I think PHL will be ok if the track we have seen so far verifies. GFS should be out any second, we'll see what it has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 GFS looks like .25+ for most of the region, surface warms above freezing at 24 hours..i'm on my phone so someone else will have to look to see what upper layers look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 GGEM is like ~ 4" all snow looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Glenn/NBC10 upped his totals from 1-3" early this morning to 3-5" for the 11am broadcast: ("a few hours of heavy snow") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 With the way the models have been bumping things up since 0z, I am not suprised by Glenn's map. I am pretty much on board with 2" to 4" for Glenn's 3" to 5" zone (and I agree with his 1" to 3" zone). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 On 2/17/2014 at 4:30 PM, JCT777 said: With the way the models have been bumping things up since 0z, I am not suprised by Glenn's map. I am pretty much on board with 2" to 4" for Glenn's 3" to 5" zone (and I agree with his 1" to 3" zone). Ditto. I am still not sold on widespread amounts above 4". But if models continue to to trend wetter, I will change my mind on that. I think most places finish with between 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 can't believe my son may have another snow day. snow days thurs/fri last week, off today for pres. day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 On 2/17/2014 at 5:00 PM, Quakertown needs snow said: can't believe my son may have another snow day. snow days thurs/fri last week, off today for pres. day this one may sneak up on people....if the euro ups the qpf in an hour, we may have a surprise event tomorrow. the interest in this one is far less than saturday, but I like this setup a lot more. Also, as we saw a couple of months ago, WAA snows can sometimes overachieve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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