Heisy Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Things starting to look better for our area for this storm. We get a little sneaky HP which helps temps cool off pretty well here. The 12z GGEM is actually like 3-6+" type event. EURO coming in stronger as I type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 EURO coming GGEM-ish....Wow, this could be a sneaky 3-6" type event in time for rush hour Tuesday AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 Can't tell if temps are good for Philly, it definitely starts as snow. Stormvista shows 2-4" for Philly & 4-6" for the burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Gfs looks decent too. The chances of storms tend to be higher at the beginning and end of patterns, so before we enter the week of milder temps I think we get a nice little storm. Hoping to get into the 60 inch club with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 EURO and GGEM had the incoming shortwave dig a little farther south and have more precip associated with it. I think we'll see some trends with the American models this evening towards it. I love events like this....The shortwave is kind of robust, we could see some bursts of heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windvane Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Hey wait, someone said no storm event when I asked to start a thread yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Does this system stay more south or does it make its way to the n+w burbs as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Does this system stay more south or does it make its way to the n+w burbs as well You look to do pretty well. I am not sure if this will end up far enough south to be anything more than a bit of snow/slop for those of us who live south of the Lehigh Valley - but it certainly bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Does this system stay more south or does it make its way to the n+w burbs as well Equal opportunity snowfall for everybody in eastern PA 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 You look to do pretty well. I am not sure if this will end up far enough south to be anything more than a bit of snow/slop for those of us who live south of the Lehigh Valley - but it certainly bears watching. Yea, something to watch, like we needed another system to track, lol. But seriously, I guess we get a break and a little melting after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 JMA shows over an inch of QPF for Philly, lol...Due to the 24hour increments can't tell on temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 JB of course all over this one.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 You look to do pretty well. I am not sure if this will end up far enough south to be anything more than a bit of snow/slop for those of us who live south of the Lehigh Valley - but it certainly bears watching. I actually think temps will be much better for this one...we actually have a HP to the N. We will eventually warmup, but this looks like a quick WAA thump, though today's CMC/EURO develop a low to our SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I actually think temps will be much better for this one...we actually have a HP to the N. We will eventually warmup, but this looks like a quick WAA thump, though today's CMC/EURO develop a low to our SE. You are probably correct. I am just tempering my expectations. What happened with the ULL the other night and what is happening today (underperformers IMBY compared to expectations) have jaded me a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 You are probably correct. I am just tempering my expectations. What happened with the ULL the other night and what is happening today (underperformers IMBY compared to expectations) have jaded me a bit. The surface temp forecasts for this storm were always marginal...People kept ignoring it. Tuesday def looks much colder to start, plus I like that it starts at night...We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The surface temp forecasts for this storm were always marginal... True, although the QPF has been lower than I thought as well. Lighter QPF and higher temps combined for a lesser event south and east of the Lehigh Valley than my earlier thoughts of 2 to 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 Way out if its range, but the initial burst of snow on the 4km NAM would be pretty heavy early Tuesday AM... This looks like an advisory event, but wonder if we can get this shortwave to dig even more to keep the surface temps colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The surface temp forecasts for this storm were always marginal...People kept ignoring it. Tuesday def looks much colder to start, plus I like that it starts at night...We'll see Don't know about the Euro but RGEM starts this one off around midnight-2AM and continues until about 2 PM with an eventual changeover in the city and extreme SE Bucks/Delco. NAM warms the surface above freezing for a better portion of SEPA as the surface low develops but it could be just at the lower levels since it appears 850 stays below -3C. Too lazy to look at bufkit. Think at the moment it's safely 95% snow on both models but it gets close towards the end of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 NWS has an interesting statement regarding this. Mentions that I-78 corridor and north could receive moderate to heavy snowfall late Monday nite to midday Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Gotta love the latest AFD from NWS-Philly, which suggests the Monday night into Tuesday event could produce 5-10" of snow from 78 northward and advisory level snows (i.e., at least 3") down to the I-95 corridor and even to Monmouth County (inland, presumably). The winter that keeps on giving. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ***TUESDAY NEEDS TO BE MONITORED FOR ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SUBSTANTIAL SNOW EVENT I78 REGION NORTHWARD*** 500MB: ENERGETIC FLOW WITH MULTIPLE RELATIVELY STRONG SHORT WAVES PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA AS THE MEAN TROUGH IN THE EAST EVOLVES WESTWARD TO A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND...AXISED FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES THE TREND FOR A BRIEF SIGNIFICANT WARMUP FOR MAYBE A FEW DAYS HERE LATE THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES: SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES NEARLY 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY BEFORE EASING TO ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY... THEN ABOUT 3 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DAILY WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. THE FORECAST BASIS...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT-USED MOSTLY THE COLDER GFS TEMP GUIDANCE WHICH WAS A CLOSER MATCH TO THE 12Z/15 ECMWF MOS AND 2M TEMPS. TUESDAY USED MAINLY THE 12Z/15 ECMWF/GGEM COMBO WITH NAM/GFS SUPPORT BUT ONLY ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES! NO BIG WARMUP FORESEEN TUESDAY...IN FACT THIS COULD BE A DAY WITH 0.5 TO 0.9 WATER EQUIVALENT SNOW! WEDNESDAY- SATURDAY IS THE 1522Z/15 WPC GUIDANCE...WITH CAUTION THAT IF THERE IS NO MIXING...TEMPS FROM THE LEHIGH VALLEY I789 REGION NORTHWARD WONT RESPOND AS MUCH TO THE WARMING ALOFT. THATS ALSO WHERE DENSE FOG AND STRATUS MAY BECOME A FORECAST PROBLEM TOWARD THE OF THE WEEK. ALSO CHILLY OCEAN BREEZES (SST RANGING FROM 37 COAST TO 33 DE BAY) WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES AT TIMES THIS WEEK. THE DAILIES BELOW... SUNDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER FLURRIES OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS WITH DUSTINGS (TRACE TO 1/2 INCH) AS WEAK WINDEX EVENT (LARGE T1-T3 LAPSE RATES, HIGH RI AND A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STABILITY TOGETHER A VT MAX PASSAGE) MOVES EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE LATE EVENING. NW WIND GUST 15-20 MPH. MONDAY...A SUNNY COLD DAY WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON CIRRUS LATE. NW WIND GUST 15 MPH BECOME LIGHT EAST LATE. LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A STRONG SHORT WAVE DRIVES EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY 170 12 HR HFC WITH NEGATIVE TILT...STRONG WAA WITH VERY GOOD SNOW GROWTH FOR SEVERAL HOURS (-14C 600MB) IN THE 06Z-18Z TIME FRAME SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ADVISORY I95 NORTHWARD INCLUDING MONMOUTH COUNTY AND POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING EVENT OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IN SOME PLACES NEAR AND NORTH OF I78. SUB FREEZING PROFILES ALREADY IN PLACE AT THE START. SMALL CHC SNOW ENDS AS RAIN AT DAYBREAK SOUTH OF KPHL COASTAL SECTIONS OCEAN COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH SE NJ AND THE SOUTH PART OF DELAWARE. AM EXPECTING THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED WITH AT BEST...DELAYS ACROSS E PA AND MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NJ. TUESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE. FOG AND STRATUS MAY BE A PROBLEM LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NW NJ THU NIGHT-FRIDAY.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Looks as if the NWS backs off the idea of a big snow event, now more of a 1-3, 2-4 event with some frz rain and sleet. I guess that warm air really pushes in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I do not think that the NWS ever had a big snow event for Phila.1-3/2-4 has been the NWS thinking for Phila all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I do not think that the NWS ever had a big snow event for Phila.1-3/2-4 has been the NWS thinking for Phila all along.You are correct, I should have clarified in my post that they were originally thinking of around and north of I78 region for a big snow potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Latest Wxsim has a quick hitting dynamic system just around Tuesday's AM rush hour. Snow arrives at 330am falls heavy for a time and is over by 730am - with around 3" of snow....JB of course says the Americans still have a ways to go to get to the likely solution so let's see what happens. Of note is this "warmup" is looking more and more muted before the cold comes back. The best the Wxsim shows for my backyard is a high of 47 on Friday - with 22" of snow still on the ground on Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 maybe the latest weakening trends are because of the frozen-over great lakes. (less moisture) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Going with a coating to 2" for my area...have a hunch we're gonna have mixing issues but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Latest Wxsim with 12z NAM/GFS continues weakening trend now seeing no more than 1" for NW Chesco - good news is it does bump us up into the low 50's (Thursday)....not real sure that will happen with our snow pack but let's hope as this brief window of warming looks to close fast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 NWS drops mention of ice or sleet possibility in Lehigh Valley for this event. Strictly snow (or no). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 European has been backing off from the idea of a big snow Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Revised National Weather Service snowmap just pushed amounts back up to 1 to 2 inches for a broad area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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