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Feb 15 Clipper Obs


HoarfrostHubb

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Roof load is a little concerning, major ice dams from the saturated stuff too, hopefully Kevins muted torch has enough warmth to ease that up although looking at the Euros 850 progression on wunderground man just a pinch off of that mini surge and Fridays another chilly one, GEFS win this one has they had half the above 850's as the Euro pretty constantly, the +11s went bye bye.

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Roof load is a little concerning, major ice dams from the saturated stuff too, hopefully Kevins muted torch has enough warmth to ease that up although looking at the Euros 850 progression on wunderground man just a pinch off of that mini surge and Fridays another chilly one, GEFS win this one has they had half the above 850's as the Euro pretty constantly, the +11s went bye bye.

I will happily accept that bust. I have been so worried and concerned about that for over a week

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I'm surprised you didn't do better over there.  It looked like some goo bands setup over there that were just to my east.

 

Same as Kevin here at 4.1"...Staffordville had 4.2" so pretty uniform in this stretch.  Just under 2' on the ground!

Yeah I'm a little disappointed, but it is what it is!  Sometimes the radar doesn't tell the whole story lol. 

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Its more that people just don't like being reminded that it won't be snowing as hard in their backyard as they were hoping.  Its no different than if SNE was looking to get clocked, and then it shifts into NNE...or if we up here are looking to get clocked, but then it goes south and people are high-fiving and there's 15 comments about hanging from chairlifts, lol.  Lets call it what it is, we all love snow and see too many fantasy runs that we really believe it.  If the rug gets pulled out from under you, most don't want to hear about it over and over.  Be it someone in western NE saying its moving west, or someone in far SE saying its moving east.  

 

It can be perfectly valid analysis...to me, this storm was never a player at all up here so I had no investment and was just browsing to see what was happening.  I thought Messenger's analysis has been quite excellent this evening.  He knows what he's talking about and can pick up on these trends.  Had I been on the line of getting potentially more significant snow and watched it slip east, it may have annoyed the heck out of me, lol.  But remove the emotional piece and its still just nowcast analysis that happened to be correct.

 

In short, we are all too emotionally involved as Tippy would say, lol. 

 

This is it in a nutshell. If the posts had been about a 15 mile tug west people would have been disrobing at their keyboard. It's hard to point out caution flags with the forecast without being seen as the turd in the punchbowl.

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Look at all the bs posts one has to battle during an event where in retrospect they provide the most accurate analysis

Dont poo poo snow ..even if ur right?

A part of me wonders wether messenger was posting what the mets were thinking but the mets just post less if during nowcast a event is tanking due to not wanting go there to deal w the weenie jumpers

. I think some people are just too protective of keeping all analysis "positive" bc they live for snowstorms and dont want anyone raining on their parade and i wish the board would look at this... So that now casting ....esp by those that tend to have a decent record is ENCOURAGED and even if it isn't pro snow.

Lastly i have a guy feeling that the atmosphere was spent and if anyone has a link to what barcolinic instability stopped by and posted two days ago ...ill go look for that

 

Not sure whom you're referring to by "mets post less... not wanting to deal with weenie jumpers"...

Accurate nowcast is always appreciated, positive or negative. Great example was Thursday's storm where it was clear media hype was inappropriate for eastern MA and most here expressed that before showtime.

 

But for Saturday? "bs posts" and "dont poo poo snow even if ur right"...? Tell this to Harvey Leonard and NWS... Harv 8-12" for Boston through the night, NWS 10-14" for Boston in their 6pm update.

 

Read my post above... this was a colossal model fail, Euro included, and I listed some reasons but it's still not totally clear to me why this hooked east at the last minute.

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Not sure whom you're referring to by "mets post less... not wanting to deal with weenie jumpers"...

Accurate nowcast is always appreciated, positive or negative. Great example was Thursday's storm where it was clear media hype was inappropriate for eastern MA and most here expressed that before showtime.

 

But for Saturday? "bs posts" and "dont poo poo snow even if ur right"...? Tell this to Harvey Leonard and NWS... Harv 8-12" through the night, NWS 10-14" in their 6pm update.

 

Read my post above... this was a colossal model fail, Euro included, and I listed some reasons but it's still not totally clear to me why this hooked east at the last minute.

 

Read my post in the banter thread...it was a small shift east...model fail isnt doing it justice and is wrong.

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Will why did the big lift sort of crap out around 8-9pm. When box went all in on 445 disco?

Did mid levels just not produce like models thought - relating to atmosphere "spent?" ( Which models dont pick up on...Or did mid levels just not deepen or get any inflow

I mean i saw very minimal atlantic inflow

 

I'm not so sure the big lift really crapped out, so much as we (NWS included) got carried away with it. If you look back at some of the images I posted yesterday, the models were awfully accurate in their placement of the best banding and lift signatures. Basically confined it to Plymouth County and SE.

 

I think the QPF pulled the wool over our eyes to some degree. The numbers looked so great, and it was bombing as it passed the Cape, so why not? In reality we should've trusted the sharp NW gradient with H7 features really suggesting SE of PVD-BOS. Those H7 progs were why I was never fully on board, especially N of BOS.

 

I think the progressive nature of the storm was poorly forecast too. I think we still had likely snow going at this time when we issued the forecast yesterday. It's been clear/sunny for hours up here.

 

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I'm not so sure the big lift really crapped out, so much as we (NWS included) got carried away with it. If you look back at some of the images I posted yesterday, the models were awfully accurate in their placement of the best banding and lift signatures. Basically confined it to Plymouth County and SE.

 

I think the QPF pulled the wool over our eyes to some degree. The numbers looked so great, and it was bombing as it passed the Cape, so why not? In reality we should've trusted the sharp NW gradient with H7 features really suggesting SE of PVD-BOS. Those H7 progs were why I was never fully on board, especially N of BOS.

 

I think the progressive nature of the storm was poorly forecast too. I think we still had likely snow going at this time when we issued the forecast yesterday. It's been clear/sunny for hours up here.

 

 

I think it was a little more progressive in addition to pulling a tad east..so yeah when you know the cutoff will be drastic west of the mid level frontogensis...it makes a big difference on snow amounts. It's the name of the game with tight gradients..but I don't completely agree with model fails and wave placement excuses. It happens...the Feb blizzard was more progressive and a tad east of where the models had it, but I don't see people noting this. Gee, I wonder why.

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