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Feb 15 Clipper Obs


HoarfrostHubb

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Hmmm...

 

Don't know how you are measuring, TauntonBlizzard, but I just went out to measure the snow board for the midnight reading.  We have a total of 6.1 inches for the day, 1.9 inches since 7 PM.  It's snowing lightly here now.  Oh, we have two boards out there close to each other in an open area away from the building.  We're using one for the 6 hourly (and midnight) measurements, and the other for the total.  Our total board had just about 6 inches on it.  Not too bad, eh?

 

We'll see what happens.

 

--Turtle 

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4" should about do it.

 

Depth is a bit challenging to discern because the rain on Wednesday night created pits.....highest I found was 24", lowest was 15".

Most common was 17-18".

17.5" should do it......just a hair above my previous max depth of 17", reached on the Dec 17, and February 12th, respectively.

65" on the season.

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Keep in mind that when traveling the roads are narrowed a great deal. Account pedestrians and double check with 7 foot piles on the sides every intersection is an adventure. 10 ' on the side of the front yard.

 

No complaints here any snow is good snow IMO. A little pissed the personal forecast busted big-time. Not many nailed this other than...ah, we all know who. 

 

-SN  approx. 6" about 1/2 of what was thought.  

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7k no power Cape T snow , brutalized and pillaged

 

Squirrels carrying their nuts knock out more power on the Cape.

 

Winds are increasing now but even here they've barely gusted to 30.  With the jog east of the storm the heavier winds are Hyannis east. 

 

9" is the final, average.   Well..whatever fluff falls after this.  Nice snowstorm but a far cry from what was modeled by some of the models and what most predicted for this area.

Keep in mind that when traveling the roads are narrowed a great deal. Account pedestrians and double check with 7 foot piles on the sides every intersection is an adventure. 10 ' on the side of the front yard.

No complaints here any snow is good snow IMO. A little pissed the personal forecast busted big-time. Not many nailed this other than...ah, we all know who.

-SN approx. 6" about 1/2 of what was thought.

This snow is heavier, and the snowbanks are larger than many of the storms with much larger totals earlier in the year. Beautiful out there. Still kind of amazed at how horrible the NAM was and some of the others in so tight but oh well.

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Yeah that area is going to be the zone that goes down in flames. You prob hit 10 though

He had 8, I had about 9. There wasn't much wind compared to so many other storms and we didn't come close to meeting true blizzard criteria. If he hit 10 he made up ground on me, this last two hours was really just light snow.

 

Not really getting into any 2-3"/hr bands as predicted. However easily between 1-1.5"hr most of the night

Yep. Even when we had the heavier returns snowgrowth wasn't great...best we could squeeze was maybe 1.3 or 1.4" --- the heaviest of returns we had all night for that matter.

 

agree... and assuming Logan does better than we do, Harv was not so off in the end... NWS came down from 10-14" and finally got it right.

 

things actually looked pretty decent when rates were intermittently heavy around 6pm... just never materialized as progged, a combination at least of a track too far east and relatively sparse moisture / ocean enhancement to work with

 

for Boston, literally a 10 mile tick east made a huge difference with this storm

 

meanwhile... long live King James:

attachicon.gifRadar_11pm.PNG

 

Box 1115 PM update...

very heavy snow band over Cape Cod with reports of thunder snow

in this band. Given intensity of the reflectivity seen on radar

probably looking at 2-3"/hour rates. Hrrr moves this band

offshore by 06z so expect the heavy snow will gradually push east

of the cape during next 2-3 hours with snow rates diminishing.

Ticks do matter, the 10-20 mile jogs we saw in the last few runs (including the mid runs) continued right through the 0z. As a result that band that produced the tsnow over the cape was about 30-50 miles further east than progged leading into the day. "obsessing" over the intricate details is sometimes what is needed and when it wasn't coming together later in the day....well...moving on. I made the statements I made over the last 24 hours in the light of some really intense runs with high QPF saying right or wrong. Was what it was and I don't care either way.

In the end maybe it wasn't just the GFS that had issues with the convection because for one reason or another almost all of them were tucked way west with the heavier stuff in error.

A very nice storm for sure, but fell short of the potential blizzard. To be honest that surprised me, I figured maybe I'd be 10-20 miles either way of the really heavy stuff which I thought might get into the 15-18" range based on the culmination of models being in the 1.2 to 2.5" range. Just wasn't meant to be.

I thought it'd be less west of i95 than many, but up until 5 or so tonight felt it'd meet expectations in this area. Oh well...looks great out there.

What's been left of this band for the last hour or so is very meh. Again 50 or so miles made the difference.

CONNECTICUT

...HARTFORD COUNTY...

MANCHESTER 3.0 1116 PM 2/15 TRAINED SPOTTER

WETHERSFIELD 2.5 1130 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

EAST GRANBY 2.0 700 PM 2/15 LOCAL POLICE

NORTH GRANBY 1.2 833 PM 2/15 TRAINED SPOTTER

...TOLLAND COUNTY...

STAFFORDVILLE 4.2 1011 PM 2/15 COOP OBSERVER

SOMERS 3.2 840 PM 2/15 TRAINED SPOTTER

COVENTRY 3.2 912 PM 2/15 TRAINED SPOTTER

STAFFORD SPRINGS 2.8 805 PM 2/15 TRAINED SPOTTER

COLUMBIA 2.2 546 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

TOLLAND 1.0 344 PM 2/15 TRAINED SPOTTER

...WINDHAM COUNTY...

MOOSUP 5.8 1059 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

EAST KILLINGLY 3.6 810 PM 2/15 SPOTTER

ASHFORD 2.0 950 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

POMFRET CENTER 2.0 534 PM 2/15 SPOTTER

MASSACHUSETTS

...BARNSTABLE COUNTY...

SANDWICH 11.0 1016 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

HYANNIS 10.0 1123 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

OSTERVILLE 9.0 1115 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

CENTERVILLE 7.8 1122 PM 2/15 TRAINED SPOTTER

WEST YARMOUTH 7.5 940 PM 2/15 NWS EMPLOYEE

MARSTONS MILLS 7.5 1015 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

WEST BARNSTABLE 7.5 954 PM 2/15 TRAINED SPOTTER

SOUTH SAGAMORE 6.8 1111 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

SOUTH DENNIS 6.6 1027 PM 2/15 GENERAL PUBLIC

MASHPEE 6.5 1107 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

YARMOUTHPORT 6.5 1104 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

BREWSTER 6.5 1102 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

BOURNE 5.7 1039 PM 2/15 TRAINED SPOTTER

WEST HARWICH 4.5 1109 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

HARWICH 3.5 906 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

PROVINCETOWN 3.5 1019 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

EAST FALMOUTH 3.0 903 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

WEST FALMOUTH 3.0 642 PM 2/15 NWS EMPLOYEE

HARWICHPORT 2.5 858 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

...BRISTOL COUNTY...

FAIRHAVEN 8.8 1042 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

WESTPORT 8.5 1025 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

NEW BEDFORD 8.5 1032 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

EAST FREETOWN 8.5 1051 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

ACUSHNET 8.0 930 PM 2/15 GENERAL PUBLIC

SOMERSET 8.0 1037 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

DARTMOUTH 8.0 919 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

FALL RIVER 7.0 1010 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

TAUNTON 6.0 1043 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

NORTH ACUSHNET 6.0 755 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

SOUTH DARTMOUTH 5.8 852 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

WEST ACUSHNET 5.5 752 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

NORTH DIGHTON 5.1 941 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

NORTH TAUNTON 5.0 803 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

ATTLEBORO 5.0 937 PM 2/15 TRAINED SPOTTER

NORTH ATTLEBORO 2.5 609 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

NORTH DARTMOUTH 2.5 528 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

...DUKES COUNTY...

OAK BLUFFS 4.3 908 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

...ESSEX COUNTY...

DANVERS 3.5 1116 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

NAHANT 3.5 1057 PM 2/15 TRAINED SPOTTER

TOPSFIELD 3.2 1011 PM 2/15 TRAINED SPOTTER

BEVERLY 3.0 1114 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

WEST PEABODY 2.0 637 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

BRADFORD 1.7 837 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

IPSWICH 1.5 808 PM 2/15 SPOTTER

MANCHESTER 1.0 501 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

NORTH CHELMSFORD 1.0 547 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

...HAMPDEN COUNTY...

LUDLOW 2.0 953 PM 2/15 TRAINED SPOTTER

AGAWAM 1.0 1013 PM 2/15 SPOTTER

SOUTHWICK 0.9 939 PM 2/15 TRAINED SPOTTER

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...

FRAMINGHAM 3.7 1025 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

ACTON 3.1 948 PM 2/15 GENERAL PUBLIC

TYNGSBORO 3.1 741 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

NATICK 3.0 848 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

SUDBURY 3.0 835 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

PEPPERELL 3.0 916 PM 2/15 TRAINED SPOTTER

GROTON 2.8 806 PM 2/15 PUBLIC

AYER 2.5 1029 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

BELMONT 2.5 1002 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

LITTLETON 2.3 907 PM 2/15 GENERAL PUBLIC

WAKEFIELD 2.1 913 PM 2/15 GENERAL PUBLIC

HOPKINTON 2.0 520 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

WILMINGTON 1.5 658 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

TEWKSBURY 0.8 122 PM 2/15 TRAINED SPOTTER

...NANTUCKET COUNTY...

NANTUCKET 1.0 726 PM 2/15 TRAINED SPOTTER

...NORFOLK COUNTY...

QUINCY 6.0 1125 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

SOUTH WEYMOUTH 5.0 958 PM 2/15 MEDIA

EAST BRAINTREE 5.0 1007 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

FOXBORO 4.5 1022 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

STOUGHTON 4.3 1018 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

WALPOLE 4.0 806 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

MILLIS 3.6 1024 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

RANDOLPH 3.6 701 PM 2/15 TRAINED SPOTTER

WEYMOUTH 3.0 649 PM 2/15 MEDIA

MILTON 3.0 851 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

NORWOOD 2.0 645 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

...PLYMOUTH COUNTY...

PLYMOUTH 9.0 1021 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

PEMBROKE 7.8 1132 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

MIDDLEBORO 7.6 1023 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

BRIDGEWATER 6.8 1124 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

DUXBURY 6.5 748 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

KINGSTON 6.0 830 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

ROCKLAND 6.0 1101 PM 2/15 SPOTTER

SOUTH PLYMOUTH 6.0 828 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

BROCKTON 5.3 1106 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

ABINGTON 4.5 945 PM 2/15 PUBLIC

HANOVER 3.0 646 PM 2/15 GENERAL PUBLIC

MARION 3.0 634 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

MARSHFIELD 3.0 905 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...

REVERE 3.5 734 PM 2/15 PUBLIC

CHELSEA 3.3 1120 PM 2/15 TRAINED SPOTTER

WEST ROXBURY 2.5 731 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

1 N EAST BOSTON 2.3 748 PM 2/15 AIRPORT

WINTHROP 2.3 700 PM 2/15 TRAINED SPOTTER

...WORCESTER COUNTY...

AUBURN 4.0 1043 PM 2/15 TRAINED SPOTTER

WEST WARREN 3.5 1120 PM 2/15 TRAINED SPOTTER

FITCHBURG 3.4 1125 PM 2/15 TRAINED SPOTTER

MILFORD 3.3 826 PM 2/15 TRAINED SPOTTER

HUBBARDSTON 3.3 1110 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

LEOMINSTER 3.2 1107 PM 2/15 TRAINED SPOTTER

WESTBOROUGH 3.0 1053 PM 2/15 NWS EMPLOYEE

TEMPLETON 3.0 704 PM 2/15 PUBLIC

WORCESTER 2.5 812 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

SOUTHBRIDGE 2.4 825 PM 2/15 TRAINED SPOTTER

NEW HAMPSHIRE

...CHESHIRE COUNTY...

RINDGE 2.0 836 PM 2/15 PUBLIC

...HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...

SOUTH HUDSON 1.8 822 PM 2/15 TRAINED SPOTTER

NASHUA 1.2 500 PM 2/15 CWSU

RHODE ISLAND

...BRISTOL COUNTY...

BRISTOL 7.0 1121 PM 2/15 BROADCAST MEDIA

BARRINGTON 6.2 1126 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

WARREN 5.3 710 PM 2/15 PUBLIC

...KENT COUNTY...

WEST WARWICK 6.5 1046 PM 2/15 TRAINED SPOTTER

WARWICK 5.0 842 PM 2/15 SPOTTER

COVENTRY 3.0 509 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

...NEWPORT COUNTY...

PORTSMOUTH 6.8 1050 PM 2/15 TRAINED SPOTTER

MIDDLETOWN 5.3 756 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

NEWPORT 3.2 737 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

...PROVIDENCE COUNTY...

CRANSTON 5.5 1129 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

RUMFORD 5.2 1121 PM 2/15 EMERGENCY MANAGER

NORTH FOSTER 5.0 1045 PM 2/15 CO-OP OBSERVER

WEST GLOCESTER 4.2 816 PM 2/15 TRAINED SPOTTER

GLOCESTER 4.0 926 PM 2/15 GENERAL PUBLIC

PAWTUCKET 4.0 804 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

NORTH PROVIDENCE 4.0 817 PM 2/15 SPOTTER

BURRILLVILLE 3.8 929 PM 2/15 GENERAL PUBLIC

NORTH SMITHFIELD 3.8 1020 PM 2/15 GENERAL PUBLIC

WOONSOCKET 3.0 700 PM 2/15 MEDIA

LINCOLN 3.0 615 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

CUMBERLAND 3.0 837 PM 2/15 NWS EMPLOYEE

SMITHFIELD 2.8 536 PM 2/15 HAM RADIO

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...

WESTERLY 8.0 918 PM 2/15 TRAINED SPOTTER

NORTH KINGSTOWN 8.0 1006 PM 2/15 TRAINED SPOTTER

NARRAGANSETT 6.0 1058 PM 2/15 PUBLIC

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Still a potent storm. Inverse WV.

 

Scott, three big storms with little or no melt. I'm located on top of a Hill, compared to just 2 miles down in the Ctr. of town there is a noticeable difference. I resurrected a thread from  '10-11 winter to compare to posted reports. Visually this year looks much deeper.

 

Enjoy your posts and valued contributions. ty 

 

    

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EYEseeyou.png

Still a potent storm. Inverse WV.

Scott, three big storms with little or no melt. I'm located on top of a Hill, compared to just 2 miles down in the Ctr. of town there is a noticeable difference. I resurrected a thread from '10-11 winter to compare to posted reports. Visually this year looks much deeper.

Enjoy your posts and valued contributions. ty

Snowbanks here are up to mailboxes and snow depth is more impactful than the fluff storms earlier, ie if I took photos of hydrants it's up a legit 9+ on the sides unlike earlier events.

Someone will drag this up two years from now but.., this one was close to being "that" storm. Just missed through a quirk in the track.

Track record on blizzard warnings verifying at major stations hasn't been great.,,,revisiting the approach to issuance should be considered before it loses it's value.

Enjoy the rest of the winter.

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Snowbanks here are up to mailboxes and snow depth is more impactful than the fluff storms earlier, ie if I took photos of hydrants it's up a legit 9+ on the sides unlike earlier events.

Someone will drag this up two years from now but.., this one was close to being "that" storm. Just missed through a quirk in the track.

Track record on blizzard warnings verifying at major stations hasn't been great.,,,revisiting the approach to issuance should be considered before it loses it's value.

Enjoy the rest of the winter.

Going out to mow?

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Messenger owned the March 2005 SE MA foot+ wet-snow bomb and he owned this storm.  Messenger, you're a great poster and the amount of personality you put in your diatribes is not only informative but wildly entertaining!!  You're like a dog on a bone when you disagree with consensus....Newport had roughly 6 inches.  Any time Newport gets 6 inches it's a good storm.  Despite the disappointment this was a fun storm, especially during the late afternoon.  Snow growth here was atrocious and marginal temps cost us an inch or two during the afternoon, but a couple hours of S+ is great especially in an area where you can go an entire winter without seeing bonafide S+. 

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Ticks do matter, the 10-20 mile jogs we saw in the last few runs (including the mid runs) continued right through the 0z. As a result that band that produced the tsnow over the cape was about 30-50 miles further east than progged leading into the day. "obsessing" over the intricate details is sometimes what is needed and when it wasn't coming together later in the day....well...moving on. I made the statements I made over the last 24 hours in the light of some really intense runs with high QPF saying right or wrong. Was what it was and I don't care either way.

In the end maybe it wasn't just the GFS that had issues with the convection because for one reason or another almost all of them were tucked way west with the heavier stuff in error.

A very nice storm for sure, but fell short of the potential blizzard. To be honest that surprised me, I figured maybe I'd be 10-20 miles either way of the really heavy stuff which I thought might get into the 15-18" range based on the culmination of models being in the 1.2 to 2.5" range. Just wasn't meant to be.

I thought it'd be less west of i95 than many, but up until 5 or so tonight felt it'd meet expectations in this area. Oh well...looks great out there.

What's been left of this band for the last hour or so is very meh. Again 50 or so miles made the difference.

 

 

Obviously ticks matter. In this case, the difference between a blue bomb and blue balls.

 

I was misled by the unambiguous trend of virtually all models (at least the important ones: EC, NAM, GFS, UK) through 12Z today showing a big hit (warning criteria for most of eastern MA / foot+ amounts for much southeastern MA and Cape).

 

Let's not forget:

--- Euro had it's biggest runs 0z and 12z today, a positive trend and within 6 hours leading up to the storm

--- NAM had its biggest run 18z, pretty much at go time...!

 

And I was far from alone. The majority of on-air mets, NWS, multiple red-taggers here, and the rarely-wrong-Harv took the bait. Harvey had Boston 8-12" through the night. NWS had Boston 10-14" and then gradually adjusted to 6-8".

 

It was a colossal model fail all around. Sure, RGEM had a clue, but when do we ever take that over EC/NAM/GFS? And yeah HRRR/RAP and the rest trended away by 0z tonight, but snow was already falling at that point.

 

And it's one of the more notable blue ballers I can remember because this had the makings of a dark horse memorable blizzard incoming. I don't want to dig up the posts, but many here including red-taggers got sucked into that.

 

I'm still trying to figure out why the tick east. The hook east seemed to occur later in the game off of Long Island (i.e., not as the SLP was spawning off of Hatteras). I thought maybe the ULL over Quebec might have had a role as a kicker, but I went back through the model runs this evening and not sure I see a correlation.

 

Some other things that might have contributed:

--- PWAT spent on prior storm --- people did comment that returns were not that impressive even when this was down by NJ. I think this is underappreciated as a factor.

--- N-S orientation of 850 low and hence not much ocean enhancement?

 

Fascinating post-mortem if anyone has more thoughts. And disagreements aside, Messenger, your comments are always appreciated. The differing views are a healthy part of this board.

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Look at all the bs posts one has to battle during an event where in retrospect they provide the most accurate analysis

Dont poo poo snow ..even if ur right?

A part of me wonders wether messenger was posting what the mets were thinking but the mets just post less if during nowcast a event is tanking due to not wanting go there to deal w the weenie jumpers

. I think some people are just too protective of keeping all analysis "positive" bc they live for snowstorms and dont want anyone raining on their parade and i wish the board would look at this... So that now casting ....esp by those that tend to have a decent record is ENCOURAGED and even if it isn't pro snow.

Lastly i have a guy feeling that the atmosphere was spent and if anyone has a link to what barcolinic instability stopped by and posted two days ago ...ill go look for that

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