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Feb 15 Clipper Obs


HoarfrostHubb

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Wow, nice!

 

Looks like the band over E. L.I.  could still give areas of E MA/RI some nice snows

 

 

looks like one last good band from BI to SW RI to rotate through here .walked the dogs and saw some some nice drifts setting up

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Modeled lift on 12z gfs hr 15z i.e 10pm tonite was well to far west.

The 0z gfs 3hr lift (7H VV's) are WELL east and hence why radar looks so lackluster.

What im trying to figure out is if the first clue to this was models showing extremely limited e flow north/ahead of a elongated (N to S) 850 low.

I was askin after 12z runs wether 850 low was elongated on euro or compact , just wondering where models really dropped the ball wrt 3 inch rates between 9pm and midnite.

Yes its beautiful outisde and box'd 8-10 or 10-14 which kissed 1 mile east of me certainly didnt get close (2.5-3" is my best guess) but ya crap turn of events inside 12 hrs in this one.

Euro FTL today

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RGEM was way too dry in RI and ern CT. As stated earlier..it's tough to resolve details like mesoscale banding by 20-30 miles. They can give you  hints, but it can also be dangerous to just run with a particular solution.

 

 

Got close to 4" in ORH now...RGEM I think had about an inch. A blend of the bearish and bullish models seems to be verifying best...the RPM from this morning might actually end up quite close...there was a little sucker hole for a while near Rt 128 that prob will make them end up low, but otherwise I think that run will verify pretty closely. It had a tight cutoff near BOS too...we'll see what they officially end up with.

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Will why did the big lift sort of crap out around 8-9pm. When box went all in on 445 disco?

Did mid levels just not produce like models thought - relating to atmosphere "spent?" ( Which models dont pick up on...Or did mid levels just not deepen or get any inflow

I mean i saw very minimal atlantic inflow

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Will why did the big lift sort of crap out around 8-9pm. When box went all in on 445 disco?

Did mid levels just not produce like models thought - relating to atmosphere "spent?" ( Which models dont pick up on...Or did mid levels just not deepen or get any inflow

I mean i saw very minimal atlantic inflow

 

 

I haven't really looked at anything closely...was out snow shoing all afternoon and didn;t get back to a real computer until now. My guess just looking at radar is the mid-level centers probably ended up more elongated than the good solutions. But there's a lot of messcale stuff that can affect this...out west (like W of 495), the event didn't perform too bad vs expectations, but it seems like your area struggled.

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