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Feb 15 Clipper Obs


HoarfrostHubb

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0z NAM finally caved east as has the RUC.  Heaviest will be winding down in the next 1-2 hours as it slowly pivots out to seas with the outer cape snowing longer of course.

 

In the end it didn't wrap quite as much as the wetter models thought.  It wasn't a huge tick, maybe 40-50 miles from the 12z position but it was enough to mix things up a bit.

 

I'll be interested in seeing what Box does now.

 

Anyway out to have some fun in the snow.

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When I read pages full of "west trend" "Wagons west"  "trend this winter" "gfs is leading the way" etc...when all it really was, was the rest of the models coming towards this centerline around I95 and the crazy GFS going too far west like every other storm before correcting east while never understanding the banding as is most often the case. 

 

The problem is as Ray says I'm the only one that tries to maintain objectivity and the only one that isn't concerned or consumed by what happens in his back yard as evidenced by me not running around telling everyone how much snow I have.  When 15 people are saying it's going west and one (there were a few others but they gave up) try to point out that it may not be what it appears.....I don't care if it snows in my yard or the implications of a trend on the amount of snow I may have.

 

There are very few times I put a stake in the ground now and stand behind it, this was one of them.  Most of the time I don't even bother.

 

The ticks were significant as was the apparent overall trend.  The proof in that is the bust today and tonight of the vast majority of forecasts.  The ticks continued past 18z, this ended up squeezing out further S&E despite all the talk of convective issues pulling it closer.

 

Fact is GFS was first to show this storm when NAM/EC were showing cirrus to most of eastern MA and barely advisory to Cape. Certainly verified more correctly in that regard. Sure it's west spread was way too wide, and in the end it may bust too high even along eastern MA because this tracked about 30-40 miles east of where progged.

 

But in terms of impact that has already materialized, GFS did lead the pack. Can't rewrite that.

 

Discussion and disagreements here are always lively. As I posted earlier, I've always valued and enjoyed your posts. I was responding to the negativity in face of large model consensus that, at least to me, did not seem to have objective basis other than the discussion of convection off Hatteras.

 

And lest this view be dismissed as weenie or emotional (which I assure you it isn't), we did have blizzard warnings and 8"+ forecasts by NWS / on-air Mets for much of eastern MA as of 2 hours ago.

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Gusting over 20mph here. This stuff will be around for a while, especially with the potential in a few days but that's for another discussion.

Yeah after the rain that soaked into it, the water content of the pack is laughable 12-18 of cement. Going to take a lot to dislodge it.

Snowing pretty hard again. A nice event for sure. Maybe it has one more trick up it's sleeve, otherwise 2-4 more for us will do it

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Yeah after the rain that soaked into it, the water content of the pack is laughable 12-18 of cement. Going to take a lot to dislodge it.

Snowing pretty hard again. A nice event for sure. Maybe it has one more trick up it's sleeve, otherwise 2-4 more for us will do it

You had a lot more snowpack that I did prior.  I had 3-4".

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It's not been an epic event here but it was beautiful in the woods with already deep snow and moderate snow falling still and quiet. Snowing harder here now.

I was lucky to be in SECT while they were getting smoked, this band was sweet, ongoing, cold now, I have 20 otg and a silky look, piles are enormous, dogs hard to see on their paths. Drag is pimping Tues, torch is muted, special special winter.
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I was lucky to be in SECT while they were getting smoked, this band was sweet, ongoing, cold now, I have 20 otg and a silky look, piles are enormous, dogs hard to see on their paths. Drag is pimping Tues, torch is muted, special special winter.

Let me know when you get a final. I'll probably refer to the report as "Leon from Moosup"

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