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Feb 15 Clipper Obs


HoarfrostHubb

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Honestly that may not be a bad call. I have 4 here now, but I'm not encouraged by what I see.

6-9 may very well so it

Wot throw in the towel quite yet

 

It's still early.  Best stuff is just now supposed to hit us and continue for next 4 hours.  It should put another 6-8"+ imo.

 

SPC Mesoscale Analysis from earlier.

 

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0107   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0204 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...INTERIOR SRN NEW   ENGLAND...ERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW    VALID 152004Z - 160200Z   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR...WILL   DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.   DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE INTENSE   CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AS THE GAP   BETWEEN A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING NEWD OFF THE NC   COAST AND A COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE NARROWS. SFC LOW PRESSURE   ANALYZED OFF THE VA COAST WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT   DEVELOPS NEWD...WHILE STRONG/DEEP FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATIONS   PENETRATING INLAND COMBINE WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER   SUFFICIENTLY COLD THERMAL PROFILES FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE   DISCUSSION AREA. MODERATE SNOW IS ONGOING ACROSS COASTAL SRN NEW   ENGLAND...AND HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEWD FROM THE ERN TIP   OF LONG ISLAND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AROUND 21-23Z. HEAVY SNOW WILL   SPREAD FARTHER NE THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING AREAS   NEAR AND NE OF PORTLAND MAINE AROUND/AFTER 01-03Z. WITH THE STRONG   ASCENT INTERCEPTING 50-100-MB-DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES CENTERED   AROUND H6...SNOWFALL RATES AOA 1 INCH/HOUR WILL BE COMMON INTO THE   EVENING.   COASTAL MA AND VICINITY -- ESPECIALLY E OF A LINE FROM BOSTON TO   PROVIDENCE INCLUDING CAPE COD -- WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR THE   HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR...WHICH ARE EXPECTED   TO OCCUR AROUND 23-03Z. THESE AREAS WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO   THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND ACCOMPANYING STRONGEST ASCENT...AND AN   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE HIGHEST OF THESE   RATES. RAIN MAY INITIALLY OCCUR WITH THE PRECIPITATION OVER CAPE COD   THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DESCENDING WET-BULB FREEZING   HEIGHTS WILL GIVE WAY TO A HEAVY WET SNOW BY EARLY EVENING WHILE   SUB-FREEZING ISOTHERMAL LAYERS AOB H7 PROMOTE EFFICIENT SNOW   AGGREGATION. ALSO...STRONG WINDS NW OF THE LOW TRACK WILL YIELD   BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AND AREAS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
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It's still early. Best stuff is just now supposed to hit us and continue for next 4 hours. It should put another 6-8"+ imo.

SPC Mesoscale Analysis from earlier.

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0107
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0204 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...INTERIOR SRN NEW
   ENGLAND...ERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 152004Z - 160200Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR...WILL
   DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE INTENSE
   CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AS THE GAP
   BETWEEN A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING NEWD OFF THE NC
   COAST AND A COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE NARROWS. SFC LOW PRESSURE
   ANALYZED OFF THE VA COAST WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT
   DEVELOPS NEWD...WHILE STRONG/DEEP FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATIONS
   PENETRATING INLAND COMBINE WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER
   SUFFICIENTLY COLD THERMAL PROFILES FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   DISCUSSION AREA. MODERATE SNOW IS ONGOING ACROSS COASTAL SRN NEW
   ENGLAND...AND HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEWD FROM THE ERN TIP
   OF LONG ISLAND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AROUND 21-23Z. HEAVY SNOW WILL
   SPREAD FARTHER NE THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING AREAS
   NEAR AND NE OF PORTLAND MAINE AROUND/AFTER 01-03Z. WITH THE STRONG
   ASCENT INTERCEPTING 50-100-MB-DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES CENTERED
   AROUND H6...SNOWFALL RATES AOA 1 INCH/HOUR WILL BE COMMON INTO THE
   EVENING.

   COASTAL MA AND VICINITY -- ESPECIALLY E OF A LINE FROM BOSTON TO
   PROVIDENCE INCLUDING CAPE COD -- WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
   HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR...WHICH ARE EXPECTED
   TO OCCUR AROUND 23-03Z. THESE AREAS WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
   THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND ACCOMPANYING STRONGEST ASCENT...AND AN
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE HIGHEST OF THESE
   RATES. RAIN MAY INITIALLY OCCUR WITH THE PRECIPITATION OVER CAPE COD
   THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DESCENDING WET-BULB FREEZING
   HEIGHTS WILL GIVE WAY TO A HEAVY WET SNOW BY EARLY EVENING WHILE
   SUB-FREEZING ISOTHERMAL LAYERS AOB H7 PROMOTE EFFICIENT SNOW
   AGGREGATION. ALSO...STRONG WINDS NW OF THE LOW TRACK WILL YIELD
   BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AND AREAS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

Yup I could still see it working out. You being more east stand a better chance than I do. I'm hoping though. Still 6 or more hours to go

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At least radar stopped collapsing se near bos / n shore last two frames

Seems there is push of decent returns going nw toward rte 1 and push se of subsidence to about 128/pike ne toward 93/128 over to ne essex county

Lets see who wins this weenie radar tug o war

I've never smoked so much subsidence during a "good" season.

1994 maybe??

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640 PM UPDATE...

HEAVY SNOW BAND ALIGNED FROM PROVIDENCE TO NEAR QUINCY...POINTS

SOUTH AND EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME PLACES ALONG THE SOUTH

COAST HAVE ALREADY MEASURED BETWEEN 5 AND 6.5 INCHES. EVERYONE WAS

CURRENTLY SNOW...EXCEPT NANTUCKET/OUTER CAPE WHERE THERE WAS A

MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW. THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD TURN OVER TO HEAVY

SNOW IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW BOMBS OUT.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY SNOW FOCUSING ACROSS SOUTHEAST

MA AND CAPE COD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY

IS DOES THIS BAND PUSH INTO THE BOSTON...NORTH SHORE REGION. SOME

OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THIS THE LAST FEW HOURS.

THEIR TREND MIGHT BE RIGHT...BUT SEEMS LIKE THEY MAY HAVE GONE TOO

FAR GIVEN UPPER LEVEL SETUP. STILL A VERY TOUGH FORECAST AS MODELS

CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT NEAR I-95...WHERE THE HEAVY

QPF CUTS OFF.

ALL IN ALL...JUST MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO DECREASE SNOW TOTALS

JUST A TAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA REGION. NO CHANGES TO THE REST

OF THE FORECAST.

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Ray, it looks to me like it is making a w push now.  keep the faith and drop the toaster.  nice arms btw.

 

Dendrite, how is the little finger band w and n or CON performing?  getting better snow growth?

 

snowing w of stamford but nothing like it was in se ct and s ri.

I'm not sure it is making a west push as much as it is reacting to the mid levels finally stacking and coming together. The mid level tracks have been modeled to bring good snows for all of eastern mass. Now certainly I'm not suggesting it will be anything crazy, but intensity may ramp up for a time for struggling areas like Ray.

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I think the BOS region snows hardest in a few hours as the storm actually begins to pull away and we see more n/s aligned bands. Nice signal of that on OKX radar. You might be able to see what I mean.

It does look to be faster than forecast though. Harvey going with a 2am shut off. From the looks of the radar I would say quicker, maybe midnight?

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Ray, it looks to me like it is making a w push now.  keep the faith and drop the toaster.  nice arms btw.

 

Dendrite, how is the little finger band w and n or CON performing?  getting better snow growth?

 

snowing w of stamford but nothing like it was in se ct and s ri.

It's still meh up here.

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I think the BOS region snows hardest in a few hours as the storm actually begins to pull away and we see more n/s aligned bands. Nice signal of that on OKX radar. You might be able to see what I mean.

 

I don't think it makes it into Boston at this point unless it bursts in from the SW with that punch.  It'll be close but time is kind of running out as Bouchard keeps saying.  The stuff on the Marshfield coast is actually dropping a bit south still as it rotates...and the RAP/HRRR both want to kind of break up what's west of that.

 

I thought it'd struggle west of I95, I'm actually surprised so far at how much this is underperforming around here.  Check out the guy on HDH that keeps shoveling the same 3-4" of snow each visit he's RIGHT on the canal at a bar called Hemispheres.

 

(note rates are improving now as temps have gone down in the last 30 minutes)...

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