RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 nice burst after a little lull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Dumping here in Plympton, some of the best snows I've seen down this way in a while. Looking forward to later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Well, with 1.5" new, I've officially reached my seasonal average (62.5"), which isn't bad for mid February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Honestly that may not be a bad call. I have 4 here now, but I'm not encouraged by what I see. 6-9 may very well so it Wot throw in the towel quite yet It's still early. Best stuff is just now supposed to hit us and continue for next 4 hours. It should put another 6-8"+ imo. SPC Mesoscale Analysis from earlier. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0107 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...INTERIOR SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 152004Z - 160200Z SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR...WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AS THE GAP BETWEEN A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING NEWD OFF THE NC COAST AND A COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE NARROWS. SFC LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED OFF THE VA COAST WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD...WHILE STRONG/DEEP FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATIONS PENETRATING INLAND COMBINE WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER SUFFICIENTLY COLD THERMAL PROFILES FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. MODERATE SNOW IS ONGOING ACROSS COASTAL SRN NEW ENGLAND...AND HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEWD FROM THE ERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AROUND 21-23Z. HEAVY SNOW WILL SPREAD FARTHER NE THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING AREAS NEAR AND NE OF PORTLAND MAINE AROUND/AFTER 01-03Z. WITH THE STRONG ASCENT INTERCEPTING 50-100-MB-DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES CENTERED AROUND H6...SNOWFALL RATES AOA 1 INCH/HOUR WILL BE COMMON INTO THE EVENING. COASTAL MA AND VICINITY -- ESPECIALLY E OF A LINE FROM BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE INCLUDING CAPE COD -- WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND 23-03Z. THESE AREAS WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND ACCOMPANYING STRONGEST ASCENT...AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE HIGHEST OF THESE RATES. RAIN MAY INITIALLY OCCUR WITH THE PRECIPITATION OVER CAPE COD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DESCENDING WET-BULB FREEZING HEIGHTS WILL GIVE WAY TO A HEAVY WET SNOW BY EARLY EVENING WHILE SUB-FREEZING ISOTHERMAL LAYERS AOB H7 PROMOTE EFFICIENT SNOW AGGREGATION. ALSO...STRONG WINDS NW OF THE LOW TRACK WILL YIELD BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AND AREAS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Radar looks like **** out this way, maybe my 6'' hopes were a little too ambitious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 At least radar stopped collapsing se near bos / n shore last two frames Seems there is push of decent returns going nw toward rte 1 and push se of subsidence to about 128/pike ne toward 93/128 over to ne essex county Lets see who wins this weenie radar tug o war Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walthsnow Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Still some nice moderate snow in Waltham. Maybe close to a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It's still early. Best stuff is just now supposed to hit us and continue for next 4 hours. It should put another 6-8"+ imo. SPC Mesoscale Analysis from earlier. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0107 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...INTERIOR SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 152004Z - 160200Z SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR...WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AS THE GAP BETWEEN A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING NEWD OFF THE NC COAST AND A COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE NARROWS. SFC LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED OFF THE VA COAST WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD...WHILE STRONG/DEEP FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATIONS PENETRATING INLAND COMBINE WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER SUFFICIENTLY COLD THERMAL PROFILES FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. MODERATE SNOW IS ONGOING ACROSS COASTAL SRN NEW ENGLAND...AND HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEWD FROM THE ERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AROUND 21-23Z. HEAVY SNOW WILL SPREAD FARTHER NE THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING AREAS NEAR AND NE OF PORTLAND MAINE AROUND/AFTER 01-03Z. WITH THE STRONG ASCENT INTERCEPTING 50-100-MB-DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES CENTERED AROUND H6...SNOWFALL RATES AOA 1 INCH/HOUR WILL BE COMMON INTO THE EVENING. COASTAL MA AND VICINITY -- ESPECIALLY E OF A LINE FROM BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE INCLUDING CAPE COD -- WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND 23-03Z. THESE AREAS WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND ACCOMPANYING STRONGEST ASCENT...AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE HIGHEST OF THESE RATES. RAIN MAY INITIALLY OCCUR WITH THE PRECIPITATION OVER CAPE COD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DESCENDING WET-BULB FREEZING HEIGHTS WILL GIVE WAY TO A HEAVY WET SNOW BY EARLY EVENING WHILE SUB-FREEZING ISOTHERMAL LAYERS AOB H7 PROMOTE EFFICIENT SNOW AGGREGATION. ALSO...STRONG WINDS NW OF THE LOW TRACK WILL YIELD BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AND AREAS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. Yup I could still see it working out. You being more east stand a better chance than I do. I'm hoping though. Still 6 or more hours to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Nice light snow out there. Roads starting to get a bit covered, but not too bad. Would be thrilled to verify 2-4" from the GYX map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 At least radar stopped collapsing se near bos / n shore last two frames Seems there is push of decent returns going nw toward rte 1 and push se of subsidence to about 128/pike ne toward 93/128 over to ne essex county Lets see who wins this weenie radar tug o war I've never smoked so much subsidence during a "good" season. 1994 maybe?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 must have very good snow growth here....were dangerously close to 2 inches!! not snowing that hard though but slow and steady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I thought we'd be in some better stuff by now. But it's still undergoing intensification, so I'm not too worried in EMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Not a huge fan of due north winds 30 miles east of Portsmouth nh and nnw over KASH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Actually coming down pretty good here right now. -SN/SN but baking powder. They look like flakes that are getting shredded high above me. Surprisingly warm 29 F. 1" today. One more and I hit climo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 21z HRRR pummels the Cape. 18-24" amounts in there. 12-18 just around the Canal. 8-10 in Bristol/Plymouth Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Been sitting under a decent band, but it's only gotten me to 2.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 640 PM UPDATE... HEAVY SNOW BAND ALIGNED FROM PROVIDENCE TO NEAR QUINCY...POINTS SOUTH AND EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME PLACES ALONG THE SOUTH COAST HAVE ALREADY MEASURED BETWEEN 5 AND 6.5 INCHES. EVERYONE WAS CURRENTLY SNOW...EXCEPT NANTUCKET/OUTER CAPE WHERE THERE WAS A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW. THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD TURN OVER TO HEAVY SNOW IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW BOMBS OUT. OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY SNOW FOCUSING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AND CAPE COD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS DOES THIS BAND PUSH INTO THE BOSTON...NORTH SHORE REGION. SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THIS THE LAST FEW HOURS. THEIR TREND MIGHT BE RIGHT...BUT SEEMS LIKE THEY MAY HAVE GONE TOO FAR GIVEN UPPER LEVEL SETUP. STILL A VERY TOUGH FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT NEAR I-95...WHERE THE HEAVY QPF CUTS OFF. ALL IN ALL...JUST MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO DECREASE SNOW TOTALS JUST A TAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MA REGION. NO CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Ray, it looks to me like it is making a w push now. keep the faith and drop the toaster. nice arms btw. Dendrite, how is the little finger band w and n or CON performing? getting better snow growth? snowing w of stamford but nothing like it was in se ct and s ri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I think the BOS region snows hardest in a few hours as the storm actually begins to pull away and we see more n/s aligned bands. Nice signal of that on OKX radar. You might be able to see what I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Ray, it looks to me like it is making a w push now. keep the faith and drop the toaster. nice arms btw. Dendrite, how is the little finger band w and n or CON performing? getting better snow growth? snowing w of stamford but nothing like it was in se ct and s ri. I'm not sure it is making a west push as much as it is reacting to the mid levels finally stacking and coming together. The mid level tracks have been modeled to bring good snows for all of eastern mass. Now certainly I'm not suggesting it will be anything crazy, but intensity may ramp up for a time for struggling areas like Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I think the BOS region snows hardest in a few hours as the storm actually begins to pull away and we see more n/s aligned bands. Nice signal of that on OKX radar. You might be able to see what I mean. It does look to be faster than forecast though. Harvey going with a 2am shut off. From the looks of the radar I would say quicker, maybe midnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Ray, it looks to me like it is making a w push now. keep the faith and drop the toaster. nice arms btw. Dendrite, how is the little finger band w and n or CON performing? getting better snow growth? snowing w of stamford but nothing like it was in se ct and s ri. It's still meh up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I definitely don't think I'm getting BOX's 10-14" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastBayWx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 5.3" new. S 1/4 - 1/2mi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 It's still meh up here. Check out HDH they're covering all the coastal areas. Meh. Shelby Scott wouldn't be impressed with the snowfall rates their cameras are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Not loving the overall direction in which the bulk of the precip is moving. Would like to see more of a westward expansion of the heavier stuff, in fact it's already collapsed a little S and E. Maybe 1.5" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 ~5.5" Might make a run at 8-9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I think the BOS region snows hardest in a few hours as the storm actually begins to pull away and we see more n/s aligned bands. Nice signal of that on OKX radar. You might be able to see what I mean. I don't think it makes it into Boston at this point unless it bursts in from the SW with that punch. It'll be close but time is kind of running out as Bouchard keeps saying. The stuff on the Marshfield coast is actually dropping a bit south still as it rotates...and the RAP/HRRR both want to kind of break up what's west of that. I thought it'd struggle west of I95, I'm actually surprised so far at how much this is underperforming around here. Check out the guy on HDH that keeps shoveling the same 3-4" of snow each visit he's RIGHT on the canal at a bar called Hemispheres. (note rates are improving now as temps have gone down in the last 30 minutes)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIcoastalWX Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 30.6/28 - Light Snow. Visibility back up to 3/4 of a mile. Finally catching a break... 1" in the last hour. 7.5 total thus far. Snowboard cleared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Barely 3.5" in hingham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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