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Feb 15 Clipper Obs


HoarfrostHubb

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Did not see if this was posted yet.

 

000
FXUS61 KBOX 152137
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
437 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS UNDERWAY FOR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST. SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY EVENING BUT COOL AND
DRY WEATHER INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER STORM IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION. A
MILDER AND UNSETTLED PERIOD IS POSSIBLE FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
***MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT***

***DANGEROUS BLIZZARD WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/POWER OUTAGES ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MA COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
TRAVEL IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED***

OVERVIEW...

A CLASSIC CASE OF BOMBOGENESIS IS ALREADY UNDER WAY OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY
RESULTING IN LOW PRESSURE BECOMING A BOMB AS IT RACES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT.

THE STORM UNDER GOING BOMBOGENESIS WAS ALREADY RESULTING IN STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT. SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE REGION AND
WAS BECOMING HEAVY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EXCEPTION WAS
PORTIONS OF THE OUTER-CAPE/NANTUCKET WHERE IT WAS WARM ENOUGH FOR
SOME RAIN.

AS THE MID LEVEL CENTERS RAPIDLY CLOSE OFF AN AREA OF EXTREMELY
STRONG DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP. THE 700 MB CLOSED
LOW SHOWS A CLASSIC BACK BENT WARM FRONT...WHICH ARE KNOWN TO
PRODUCE EXTREMELY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES JUST TO THE LEFT OF THAT
BOUNDARY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHERE DOES THIS MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE SETUP? THE NAM/RGEM CONFINE IT TO
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WHILE THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF
BRING IT INTO CENTRAL MA AND EASTERN CT FOR A TIME. ITS A REALLY
TRICKY SITUATION...AS THERE IS LIKELY TO BE SHARP DECREASE IN
SNOWFALL TO THE WEST OF THIS DEFORMATION REGION. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY THOUGH...WERE GOING WITH THE MORE WESTERN AND AGGRESSIVE
SOLUTIONS. MODERATE SNOW IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL MA
AND EASTERN CT. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH WARNING LEVEL SNOW TO THE
EAST OF A WILLIMANTIC...TO WORCESTER...TO FITCHBURG LINE. LATER
SHIFTS MAY CERTAINLY HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
RADAR/MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS BUT FEEL THINGS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

WHAT WE ARE VERY CONFIDENT ABOUT IS COASTAL MA...ESPECIALLY
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS MID LEVEL CENTERS RAPIDLY
CLOSE OFF ALL MODELS INDICATE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WITH SOME -EPV
JUST ABOUT THAT. IN FACT...SREF GRAPHICS WHICH TEND TO BE
CONSERVATIVE INDICATING DECENT PROBS FOR 3 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES CLOSE AROUND 3Z TONIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
LOCATIONS HAVE 4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND THE UPPER CAPE. THERE CERTAINLY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED THUNDER AS WELL.


TIMING OF THE SNOW...

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME HEAVY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS
THE WESTERN SECTIONS. THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BE THROUGH 1 OR
2 AM ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THAT IS WHEN WE EXPECT THE
EXTREME SNOWFALL RATES PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD EXIT THE COAST BY 3 OR 4 AM.

PTYPE...

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW FROM THE UPPER CAPE...POINTS NORTH AND WEST.
HOWEVER...FROM EAST OF HYANNIS AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS NANTUCKET
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. AS THE LOW BOMBS OUT THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL
QUICKLY CHANGE TO HEAVY WET SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE LONGER ONTO NANTUCKET...BUT THEY TO SHOULD FLIP TO
HEAVY SNOW BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

SNOW AMOUNTS...

THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN PLYMOUTH COUNTY TO THE UPPER CAPE
WITH THE EXTREME SNOWFALL RATES EXPECTED. ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 16
INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER A RELATIVELY SHORT TIME. PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST OUTER-CAPE/NANTUCKET WILL SEE SOMEWHAT LESS AMOUNTS
GIVEN THE RAIN AT THE ONSET...BUT STILL EXPECT 6 TO 12 INCHES IN
THIS REGION WITH THE LOWER AMOUNTS LIKELY ACROSS NANTUCKET. WORKING
FURTHER WEST EXPECT 4 TO 8 INCHES INTO CENTRAL MA/EASTERN
CT...DROPPING OFF TO BETWEEN 2 AND 6 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NH/WESTERN MA.

WINDS...

THE LOW RAPIDLY UNDER GOING BOMBOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH WILL AFFECT MUCH
OF THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM. HOWEVER...TREMENDOUS
TRANSFER SHOULD YIELD DAMAGING 60 TO 70 MPH GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CAPE/NANTUCKET.

HEADLINES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/WESTERN
MA. WINTER STORM WARNINGS CENTRAL/INTERIOR EASTERN MA AS WELL AS
RHODE ISLAND. BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR CAPE ANN...PLYMOUTH
COUNTY...CAPE AND ISLANDS.

IMPACTS...

ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND A TYPICAL SNOWSTORM WILL
OCCUR. GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

HOWEVER...THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. VERY
HEAVY SNOW WITH SOME OF WHICH WILL BE VERY WET ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WILL COMBINE WITH THE DAMAGING
WINDS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN A LOT OF DOWNED TREES
AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. TRAVEL ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BECOME
ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE...AS DOWNED TREES MAY BLOCK ROADWAYS. IN
ADDITION...SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO PERHAPS 4 INCHES PER HOUR FOR A
TIME WILL MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE FOR PLOWS TO KEEP UP. TRAVEL WILL
BECOME ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE AND DANGEROUS.

 

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Where's James , i hope that is snow out there . Looks brutal

Any wind obs from around area/bouys

 

Closest you're going to get right now is 44066 (Texas Tower #4) about 75 east of ACY. Only 27 knots right now.

 

Losing Nantucket Shoals is rough, that would be in good position for this one. But it's been gone since the February blizzard last year.

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Ray we over next cpl hrs id like to see green echos expand over bos harbor and points ne of there then move in. The lift is forecast to really increase next cpl hours at least near cape Ann and a bit further nw

 

Ray we over next cpl hrs id like to see green echos expand over bos harbor and points ne of there then move in. The lift is forecast to really increase next cpl hours at least near cape Ann and a bit further nw

Very meh so far....just over an inch.

29.2/27

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