Geos Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 With winds off the lake and the mid levels torching away, I figure Milwaukee's window for frozen precip will be limited to before 8am or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 of rain nope riding your fav model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 And LOT AFD this aft mentioned possibility of frozen precip THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONCERNS OF A WINTER MIX OF SNOW...FREEZINGRAIN AND SLEET AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATIONOVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 88. ITAPPEARS THAT STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL SET UP ALONG THE NOSE OFTHE LOW LEVEL JET...AND THIS STRONG FORCING COMBINED WITHEVAPORATION COOLING COULD RESULT IN A COLUMN COLD ENOUGH FOR ALLSNOW...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE WISCONSIN BOARDER. THIS COULD RESULTIN A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS FAR NORTHERNILLINOIS TONIGHT INTO VERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE WARMSURGE KICKS NORTHWARD...CHANGING EVERYTHING OVER TO LIQUID. MODELBUFFER SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION ARE VERY CONCERNING...WITH THEPROFILES INDICATING A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER FROM THE SURFACE UP TOAROUND 700 MB HUGGING THE FREEZING POINT...AND VERY STEEP MID LEVELLAPSE RATES ABOVE THIS ISOTHERMAL LAYER. SO ALTHOUGH THERE MAY ONLYBE A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZINGRAIN...THERE COULD BE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AND A FEWHUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION FAR NORTH PRIOR TO THECHANGE OVER TO RAIN...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...BUT I HAVE ADDED SOME SNOW AND ICEACCUMULATIONS INTO THE FORECAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME RAPIDSNOW ACCUMULATIONS. I WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN AN SPS...ANDPASS ALONG THE CONCERNS TO THE EVENING SHIFT TO SEE IF ANY WINTER WXHEADLINE WILL BE NEEDED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Considerable uncertainty even at this late hour in terms of how big a deal the wintry precip will be in southern WI/far northern IL. Hi-res models certainly bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Considerable uncertainty even at this late hour in terms of how big a deal the wintry precip will be in southern WI/far northern IL. Hi-res models certainly bullish. Does that continue over on this side of the lake as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 @ Blackrock. I think it would be a bigger issue on your side of the lake in the morning. - Since winds are offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 918 PM CST WED FEB 19 2014 DISCUSSION 918 PM CST EVENING UPDATE... KEY UPDATE THIS EVENING IS THAT WE WILL BE HOISTING A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA STARTING AT 00Z TOMORROW EVENING. INTENSE WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN PRECIP CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL PLAINS WILL OVERSPREAD AREA LATE TONIGHT. BIGGEST CONCERN IS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND ALSO TEMPERATURES ALOFT DUE TO EVAPORATIONAL/DYNAMIC COOLING MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-88 AS PRECIP BEGINS. SURFACE WET BULB 0 VALUES WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE 20S NORTH OF I-80 WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING UNTIL 12Z OR SO WE ADDED IN FREEZING MENTION ALONG I-80 CORRIDOR. STRONG WARM SURGE WITH H8 TEMPS WARMING TO +6 OR +7C FROM SOUTH SHOULD AID IN WARMING ENTIRE COLUMN ABOVE FREEZING BY DAYBREAK. FARTHER NORTH/ALONG NORTH OF I-88...DRY EAST FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE COLUMN TO COOL TO OR BELOW FREEZING AS IT TRIES TO SATURATE. THUS THERE COULD BE A BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW/SLEET...FOLLOWED BY TRANSITION TO ZR AND THEN PLAIN RAIN BY 14 TO 15Z TOMORROW. WOULD EXPECT IMMEDIATE DOWNTOWN CHICAGO TO BE AT LESS OF A THREAT OF SNOW AND BRIEF ICE ACCUMS DUE TO VERY MILD TEMPS THE PAST FEW DAYS. SURFACE TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR ZR TO HOLD ON A BIT LONGER IN PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN IL TOMORROW AM. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPS FOR SNOW/ICE THREAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Considerable uncertainty even at this late hour in terms of how big a deal the wintry precip will be in southern WI/far northern IL. Hi-res models certainly bullish. Yeah. 0z HRRR shows 6 + for some spots in S. WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 @ Blackrock. I think it would be a bigger issue on your side of the lake in the morning. - Since winds are offshore. Good point, Geos. Just looked at the RAP. It actually doesn't look very impressive for wintry precip. over here. Definitely more on your side of the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Good point, Geos. Just looked at the RAP. It actually doesn't look very impressive for wintry precip. over here. Definitely more on your side of the lake. It will be more of an inland issue. Winds will be SE most of the morning with lake temps 33-34°. Freezing rain maybe across some areas, but since the sun has been beating on the pavement, I don't think it will be a major issue like it was 5 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 With winds off the lake and the mid levels torching away, I figure Milwaukee's window for frozen precip will be limited to before 8am or so. Winds off the lake shouldn't matter given it is frozen!? You're trying way too hard as others have said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Winds off the lake shouldn't matter given it is frozen!? You're trying way too hard as others have said. I'm being realistic. The sun has been beating on the roads for 2 days now. We didn't come off -15° lows this week. But in case the roads are icy, take it easy out there. ...I'm basing this assumption off of conditions early this evening. I noticed the roads were wet from the melting during the day but I didn't notice any ice on them. Didn't notice anyone spinning their tires or anything trying to get traction like that one evening 5 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 MSP is going to get crushed with storm, 6-7 west metro, 7-10 central metro, 10-12" east metro. We will get real close to blizzard conditions north of the metro as well as to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I'm being realistic. The sun has been beating on the roads for 2 days now. We didn't come off -15° lows this week. But in case the roads are icy, take it easy out there. ...I'm basing this assumption off of conditions early this evening. I noticed the roads were wet from the melting during the day but I didn't notice any ice on them. Didn't notice anyone spinning their tires or anything trying to get traction like that one evening 5 weeks ago. Realistic would be the word if it was clear you still wanted wintry weather, but given you've reached the boiling point, it is trying to rationalize what you prefer to happen. I agree that we won't get much wintry weather, but using poor reasoning for it (winds off the lake) may be called out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Sleet in Rockford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 MSP is going to get crushed with storm, 6-7 west metro, 7-10 central metro, 10-12" east metro. We will get real close to blizzard conditions north of the metro as well as to the south. Good luck! I just left there. Shoveled my roof in preparation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Looks like gonna be east of the good stuff here unless the rgem scores a coup! Will be fun to see Hayward wi tomorrow afternoon however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Rain just changed to heavy sleet with thunder. Really ripping pingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 had a couple pingers with the last round as well but nothing major Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Snowing buckets in Gurnee.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 large area of bright banding moving north of JOT towards the north side melting line looks to run NW from the city north of I90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Back to rain. I'm showing 33F. Looks like it will only go up from here with WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Got a mix going on here. Nothing really sticking though. A bit above freezing. Edit: Now back to all rain drops now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 had an accumulating layer of sleet and snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 It snowed briefly; there is a coating of wet snow on pretty much everything. It really looks awesome in the early morning light Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The 11Z RUC has a small bullseye 10-12" of snow right over DMC's house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 0.4" of snow and sleet here. 0.72" of moisture so far. Have no idea what part of that was snow though. Probably like 5-6:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Congrats on your 12" Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Well, picked up .8" of heavy slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Nothing here...zilch... radar looks blank. 6z GFS says fail to 2 inches... Storm cancel. Hope Chicago picks up a foot. Rooting for you guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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