Snowstorms Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in. NAM drops about 1/2 an inch of QPF while sfc temps are below freezing at YYZ. Once BUFKIT comes out I'll bask in the potpourri of ptypes. Interesting! Did BUFKIT come out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2014 Author Share Posted February 19, 2014 Interesting! Did BUFKIT come out yet? 0.15" as SN, 0.15" as PL (although the elevated warm layer is marginal. It could easily be snow), and 0.20" as ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 0.15" as SN, 0.15" as PL (although the elevated warm layer is marginal. It could easily be snow), and 0.20" as ZR. Thanks! Well thats interesting. We'll need to watch for potential dynamic cooling like the NAM is depicting. The High across Quebec isnt very strong, but perhaps the extensive ice cover and deep snow pack could help out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2014 Author Share Posted February 19, 2014 Thanks! Well thats interesting. We'll need to watch for potential dynamic cooling like the NAM is depicting. The High across Quebec isnt very strong, but perhaps the extensive ice cover and deep snow pack could help out. RGEM also showing something similar, although amounts are lighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 RGEM also showing something similar, although amounts are lighter. Yeah its more warmer than the NAM but we'll have to see what transpires as we move closer. The GFS looks like all rain. Maybe some light ZR to start off. A few key things can make a huge difference in what kind of precip we end up seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Yeah its more warmer than the NAM but we'll have to see what transpires as we move closer. The GFS looks like all rain. Maybe some light ZR to start off. A few key things can make a huge difference in what kind of precip we end up seeing. If the temperature can hold in the 30s, we might be able to preserve much of our snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Looks like the 00z GFS is a bit cooler across SE WI and NE IL, however it continues to show the heaviest precipitation over Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 double lol NAM BUFKIT output spits out 9" of snow in 4 hrs at RFD Thurs AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 GFS seems to be the odd model out so far of the 0z runs. RGEM/NAM/Hi-Res models all keep the low tracking towards NE IL/MKE compared to the GFS that takes it to GB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 0z hi res NMM also looks interesting Thursday morning and is also east some with the low that evening. Near Pontiac/Morris area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 At least I can't remember any situation where I got a thump of snow like that. Not saying it hasn't happened in my lifetime or anything. If it happened, wouldn't even touch a shovel! Most of the 8-14" of snow that fell from DC to the NYC metro last Weds night through Thursday night was intense WAA driven snows Weds night into Thurs AM. Combo of wet bulbing initially and dynamic cooling kept the column supportive of mostly snow until the warmer air finally overcame. The 00z sounding last Thursday evening at OKX on central LI registered 7c at 850 mb. It'll be interesting to see if the NAM is legit with this wet bulbing/dynamic cooling set-up. GFS will not do as well picking up on this but its last 2 runs were hinting at it over northern IL and southern WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in. NAM drops about 1/2 an inch of QPF while sfc temps are below freezing at YYZ. Once BUFKIT comes out I'll bask in the potpourri of ptypes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 6z nam coming in farther SE and a bit colder than 0z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Congrats, DLL! Seems like forever since I seen you under a warning with up to a foot of snow. THURSDAY...SNOW IN THE MORNING THEN SNOW AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 9 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 100 PERCENT. THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDY...COLDER SNOW. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 13. WEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 100 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Most of the 8-14" of snow that fell from DC to the NYC metro last Weds night through Thursday night was intense WAA driven snows Weds night into Thurs AM. Combo of wet bulbing initially and dynamic cooling kept the column supportive of mostly snow until the warmer air finally overcame. The 00z sounding last Thursday evening at OKX on central LI registered 7c at 850 mb. It'll be interesting to see if the NAM is legit with this wet bulbing/dynamic cooling set-up. GFS will not do as well picking up on this but its last 2 runs were hinting at it over northern IL and southern WI. that's nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2014 Author Share Posted February 19, 2014 My interest in this storm after reviewing the 6z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 12z NAM appears to be coming in more aggressive with WAA overnight...not all that surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 12z NAM still insistent on a thump for N IL/S WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Sfc low goes over MDW. Cyclone up to FEP/RFD do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 NAM versus the world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 NAM continues to push the sfc low further east. 2-4" off the WAA around SE WI. MSN and GRB do well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 What a morning write up from Henny Penny AKA Izzi. That was a novel of weather goodness. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 What a morning write up from Henny Penny AKA Izzi. That was a novel of weather goodness. Wow! yep, that was quality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 If something like a foot fell in 4 hours in N IL, it would be paralyzing. 12" in 4.5 hours last Winter left me speechless for 2 days. Hopefully a twist and surprise for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 geos accidentally switched on the magnet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Yeah the 4km NAM is even further east. Takes it to 988mb over Gary then west of GRR over the lake. Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Yeah the 4km NAM is even further east. Takes it to 988mb over Gary then west of GRR over the lake. Not bad You buy it? Nam has been consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 has no support but it's about 1 more shift east from being a nice hit for NW portions of Chicagoland, including Geos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 this would be a huge score for the NAM, and it is within its sweeter time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 this would be a huge score for the NAM, and it is within its sweeter time frame. 6z NMM had a similar low track but it warmer and displaced further north with the defo snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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