Minnesota Meso Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 0z NAM take the low over green bay The track from ARX to Green Bay is normally golden at this time of year for go saints, DDL and me. What concerns me however is the heavy snow pack over you guys. I'm beginning to wonder how much convective precip will fall very near the eastern edge of the surface low track, if convective precip should occur, that will pump more moisture into the cold sector and give us our biggest snowfall of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 UKIE has a 981 surface low over ARX. Hot link this will change with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 se trend cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2014 Author Share Posted February 18, 2014 Aside from the small chance of a bit PL/ZR to start I never had much hope with the D2-3 storm. The potential lay with that secondary storm which has essentially vanished from the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Aside from the small chance of a bit PL/ZR to start I never had much hope with the D2-3 storm. The potential lay with that secondary storm which has essentially vanished from the models. same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 It's looking good for parts of Iowa, but probably not the CR/IC area. A couple runs of the nam & gfs have teased my area, but overall the models appear locked into a central Iowa to La Crosse path for the snow. Des Moines has issued a blizzard watch for their central & northern counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 A chase to the western UP might be in my future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Although.... wrap around moisture and overall conditions are very favorable for LE here. The ice has shifted quit a bit and a good portion of northern L MI ice is rather thin now. If good wind over the lager portion of the open lake can generate decent waves and mixing of the water, could see a good breakup and melting of some ice... thus making LE interesting. nothing like the W UP will see but a few inches of snow and wind would be fun to just hang in the 'hood. I'd say even w/o LE, a few inches wrap around is a good bet.... a heavy dose of winter after a dampening of the snow pack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 @ Bo. I noticed patches of open water off Racine this morning. Winds yesterday definitely had an effect. A good north fetch would be able to produce a nice plume... I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 @ Bo. I noticed patches of open water off Racine this morning. Winds yesterday definitely had an effect. A good north fetch would be able to produce a nice plume... I would think. A visible sat tells the ice story better than that graphic too. lot's of open water, and with 40's down that way and rain, along with southerly winds, should completely give the lake ice a new face. westerly winds behind the departing storm tho, but future N flow events could be back in play, even as LE season wanes anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Isn't the big story that all of Ontario Canada is getting 20 inches? NWS here going 3 to 8 inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 NAM hitting the crack pipe hard today.... verbatim 24-28" W UP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Isn't the big story that all of Ontario Canada is getting 20 inches? NWS here going 3 to 8 inches... March mostly looks below normal, the Great Lakes are icy/cold and there is a massive snow pack in ON Canada does not bode well for a warm spring. Only thing that could change that is if there is a major overwhelming warm pattern in April (aka March 2012 type pattern). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 NAM hitting the crack pipe hard today.... verbatim 24-28" W UP Would make up some ground with the LES shutting down up there the past couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Gfs now looks further east then other guidance. Ggem is west/warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 It's borderline but the 18z NAM hints we could see a brief period of heavy snow at onset early tomorrow morning as the heavy precip moves in. it's picking up on some dynamic cooling looking at 850/925mb temps between 9-12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 It's borderline but the 18z NAM hints we could see a brief period of heavy snow at onset early tomorrow morning as the heavy precip moves in. it's picking up on some dynamic cooling looking at 850/925mb temps between 9-12z. lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Geos must love that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 the stuff of nightmares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 New NAM run rolling out arguably has a stronger dynamic cooling signal than the 18z run over northern IL and southern WI. Sent from my SCH-I535 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 New NAM run rolling out arguably has a stronger dynamic cooling signal than the 18z run over northern IL. Sent from my SCH-I535 Indeed it does...pretty much keeps that initial slug of precip all frozen. 6" lolli over far SE WI...would like to see some more support from other models though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 A truly classic curving Colorado Low track from the Colorado Front Range, then lee cyclogenesis deepening over the OK Panhandle before taking the curved track toward the MN/WI/IA border. A thing of beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 The NAM will handle this better so will be interesting to see how this is handled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 double lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2014 Author Share Posted February 19, 2014 Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in. NAM drops about 1/2 an inch of QPF while sfc temps are below freezing at YYZ. Once BUFKIT comes out I'll bask in the potpourri of ptypes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 4km NAM appears to have the snow at onset too, maybe even slightly colder than the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Usually front end snow ahead of intense WAA doesn't work out too well. Right now I'll have to lol at it. 1-2" is probably the most I've ever seen in these situations before change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Usually front end snow ahead of intense WAA doesn't work out too well. Right now I'll have to lol at it. 1-2" is probably the most I've ever seen in these situations before change over. LolThe best TSSN I've ever seen was in a setup like this with intense advection precip that stayed snow for a few hours. No headlines out, warnings all north and west with strong low passing to NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 The NAM sounding for MKE is impressive to say the least....the column wet bulbs below 0C and then its rip city for 4hrs, almost .8" of qpf all snow. 4kNAM drops almost .4" in a hour lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Lol The best TSSN I've ever seen was in a setup like this with intense advection precip that stayed snow for a few hours. No headlines out, warnings all north and west with strong low passing to NW. At least I can't remember any situation where I got a thump of snow like that. Not saying it hasn't happened in my lifetime or anything. If it happened, wouldn't even touch a shovel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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