stormtracker Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Is there an echo in here. Don't let the door hit you where the good Lord split you. Stay in Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 00z GGEM is a quick hitter... in and out in 4-6 hrs overnight Monday from 10pm to 4am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Stay in Florida. After what I saw last night at Liv in the Fontainebleau I just may. I cannot wait to get back and see you . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 See ya Randy has been out for years.. Zwyts just went to the out house until the euro rolls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Euro 1-3". Baltimore scores the 3 this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 You don't want to watch it slip away slowly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2014 Author Share Posted February 16, 2014 We're back to suck On to d8-9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 latest SREFs look good for .25"+ NAM almost out, but it looks pretty good thru 33 hrs wrt trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 unless NAM has a last minute change of heart, it doesn't look too impressed with this at 42 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Low going to our north isn't good for getting much snow as we'll be downsloping. That's certainly what the NAM is forecasting. it would give a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Rgem seems hell bent on giving us an acceptable snow amount. I'm hugging that until further notice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Rgem seems hell bent on giving us an acceptable snow amount. I'm hugging that until further notice RGEM has been good, nailed the ULL band as well. I gotta give it some credence. Also SREF has gotten much wetter, .25 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 RGEM has been good, nailed the ULL band as well. I gotta give it some credence. Also SREF has gotten much wetter, .25 now. 6z high res nam was .25+ most of the area. Nam is bouncing a bit. Wes' points are very valid tho. Enough guidance supports a respectable event to not bail...yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 6z high res nam was .25+ most of the area. Nam is bouncing a bit. Wes' points are very valid tho. Enough guidance supports a respectable event to not bail...yet I'm starting to get uneasy on this one, because meteorological principle could be starting to show on the models. Don't know for sure if there is enough confluence to kill the low enough. Regardless, the vort passage is not that good unless we're talking the 12z ARW run on e-wall, that is a beaut. Probability of verification: 1% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 RGEM at 12z is a wreck, so yeah we're in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 RGEM at 12z is a wreck, so yeah we're in trouble. At least we have a ku coastal to start working on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 does look to be slipping away, though last night's JMA still wanted to give us .75" qpf lol http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_72HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 GFS has vort in the lakes. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 GFS has vort in the lakes. Next. yep, something about frozen, fresh water that they seem to like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 This event is going to be so sneaky that we just might not even notice it. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 See what the EURO says, if similar Im out...either way it was never a big event..just potential for 1-3. Looks like we're back to our typical winter though...we'll see what the very end of Feb and early March has in store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I'm 9/10ths out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Low going to our north isn't good for getting much snow as we'll be downsloping. That's certainly what the NAM is forecasting. it would give a dusting. Wes, no doubt that the low going north of us precludes a decent event, but we're not really downsloping here until after the cold front passes through. The time series vertical profile below (time goes forward from right to left) shows southerly low-level flow and a warm advection pattern ahead of the cold front, and the colors which are cloud water/ice show a nice signature of a band right ahead of the cold front. This is consistent with the 700 mb vertical velocity and the simulated reflectivity. Don't get me wrong - this isn't going to be a big deal here, but there will probably be a nice burst of snow with some gusty winds after midnight tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Even the Canadian further north and less impressive. Im out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 who's in for some NAM advertised flurries this evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Wes, no doubt that the low going north of us precludes a decent event, but we're not really downsloping here until after the cold front passes through. The time series vertical profile below (time goes forward from right to left) shows southerly low-level flow and a warm advection pattern ahead of the cold front, and the colors which are cloud water/ice show a nice signature of a band right ahead of the cold front. This is consistent with the 700 mb vertical velocity and the simulated reflectivity. Don't get me wrong - this isn't going to be a big deal here, but there will probably be a nice burst of snow with some gusty winds after midnight tomorrow. We still get dry slotted, just look at the RH field. Whether it's downsloping or not. You could probably show similar cross sections for most events that have a low that goes to our north. Essentially all we get is either a quick shot of warm advection or a brief period of precip with the tail of the vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 who started this thread anyway???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 who started this thread anyway???? He got the LOL part right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 UKMet actually has a bit more than this, but this is just 6 hrs. ending 48 hrs; don't know exactly how much from Plymouth maps however http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=sfc&va=prec&in=.1&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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