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Lol Monday night sneaky event


Ji

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6z high res nam was .25+ most of the area. Nam is bouncing a bit. Wes' points are very valid tho. Enough guidance supports a respectable event to not bail...yet

I'm starting to get uneasy on this one, because meteorological principle could be starting to show on the models. Don't know for sure if there is enough confluence to kill the low enough. Regardless, the vort passage is not that good unless we're talking the 12z ARW run on e-wall, that is a beaut. Probability of verification: 1% ;)

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Low going to our north isn't good for getting much snow as we'll be downsloping. That's certainly what the NAM is forecasting. it would give a dusting. 

 

    Wes, no doubt that the low going north of us precludes a decent event, but we're not really downsloping here until after the cold front passes through.   The time series vertical profile below (time goes forward from right to left) shows southerly low-level flow and a warm advection pattern ahead of the cold front, and the colors which are cloud water/ice show a nice signature of a band right ahead of the cold front.   This is consistent with the 700 mb vertical velocity and the simulated reflectivity.   Don't get me wrong - this isn't going to be a big deal here, but there will probably be a nice burst of snow with some gusty winds after midnight tomorrow.

724050.cloud.gif

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    Wes, no doubt that the low going north of us precludes a decent event, but we're not really downsloping here until after the cold front passes through.   The time series vertical profile below (time goes forward from right to left) shows southerly low-level flow and a warm advection pattern ahead of the cold front, and the colors which are cloud water/ice show a nice signature of a band right ahead of the cold front.   This is consistent with the 700 mb vertical velocity and the simulated reflectivity.   Don't get me wrong - this isn't going to be a big deal here, but there will probably be a nice burst of snow with some gusty winds after midnight tomorrow.

724050.cloud.gif

We still get dry slotted,  just look at the RH field.  Whether it's downsloping or not.  You could probably show similar cross sections for most events that have a low that goes to our north.  Essentially all we get is either a quick shot of warm advection or a brief period of precip with the tail of the vort. 

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