mitchnick Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 on both euro and GFS, precip pretty much shuts off before we mix or changeover or surface warmth...GFS is the better event for DC..... Oh, I agree wrt GFS & Euro...I was commenting on the 24 hr. increments of the JMA, which gives basically twice the qpf as both GFS & Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Is our area becoming a snow town again? I think at the very least we get some accum snow monday night. Even if it switches we should score something to stick in the snow totals thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 black and white GGEM http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/478_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Is our area becoming a snow town again? I think at the very least we get some accum snow monday night. Even if it switches we should score something to stick in the snow totals thread. idk Bob, today pretty much put us back in the corner, facing the wall where we've been the past 4 years but I do believe the worm has turned for us generally speaking in that it can snow here again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 GGEM is around 0.35 - 0.4" liquid for DC all snow...earler start and end time..9pm - 4am...we are ripping by midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Is our area becoming a snow town again? I think at the very least we get some accum snow monday night. Even if it switches we should score something to stick in the snow totals thread. Enjoy it while it lasts, next winter we are back to tracking mood flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_SFC_ACCUM-PRECIP_96HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 GGEM is around 0.35 - 0.4" liquid for DC all snow...earler start and end time..9pm - 4am...we are ripping by midnight except for timing, GEM, GFS and Euro show incredible agreement on temps & qpf for any event I can recall with 60-65 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 GGEM is around 0.35 - 0.4" liquid for DC all snow...earler start and end time..9pm - 4am...we are ripping by midnight Yes matt was looking at the individual panels hr by hr and it looked pretty solid. Gem, gfs, euro, and jma are all decent solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Enjoy it while it lasts, next winter we are back to tracking mood flakes. Next year looks to be a weak/mod nino. I'm already looking forward to it and tracking enso. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 This could be a classic system/event preceding a warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_SFC_ACCUM-PRECIP_96HR.gif that's total thru 96 hrs. which includes this much shown to fall on the 24 hr. map below http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_24HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 that's total thru 96 hrs. which includes this much shown to fall on the 24 hr. map below http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_24HR.gif Correct, about .8" falls with our system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 Is our area becoming a snow town again? I think at the very least we get some accum snow monday night. Even if it switches we should score something to stick in the snow totals thread. we are finding weird ways to snow....thats not a bad thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 idk Bob, today pretty much put us back in the corner, facing the wall where we've been the past 4 years but I do believe the worm has turned for us generally speaking in that it can snow here again I was mostly referring to getting a ku and then missing out on a nice upper level feature but then another threat comes into focus in less than 72 hours. Last year we would have tracked today for 10 days, failing, and then nothing on the horizon. Now some potential is showing up inside of day 10 on the tail. This winter has been non stop track and we are all doing quite well. With this being said, I too feel like we wasted a nice op today. Oh well. I'll shovel my 5" Tuesday morning with a smile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 We also have another legit airmass in place. Temps and 850's are solid, not even close to marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Next year looks to be a weak/mod nino. I'm already looking forward to it and tracking enso. +AO all winter. Bank on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 We also have another legit airmass in place. Temps and 850's are solid, not even close to marginal. The temps and airmass in place for this system is certainly a better one than today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The temps and airmass in place for this system is certainly a better one than today. Definitely. Today was very marginal even up here. We might have done okay if we got some good rates but the snow never got any heavier than -sn. The system never came together and no bands developed. Models hinted at this type of outcome. Hopefully the next event will just be a precipitation field heading right for us. 6-8 hour type deal that strikes fast and hard and then drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It will be nice to get a couple hard freezes in and highs in the low-mid 30's for the next 2 days. That should help glaciate the remaining pack and set the stage for maximizing accums monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 NAM is stronger with the shortwave out west thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Next year looks to be a weak/mod nino. I'm already looking forward to it and tracking enso. no doubt snapping into a weak nina this winter helped....I'm still convinced if the winter stayed neutral/positive neutral it would have mostly blown chunks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 DO YOU SEE IT TRENDING ANYMORE QPF..I MEAN ISAW JMA..LOL..BUT THAT ENCOURAGIN IF WE CAN GET SAY .80 ALL SNOW..SORRY CAPS... No, I don't think .80 is a realistic expectation. It's a fast moving vort with limited moisture. .25 - .50 would be a reasonable expectation. We'll see how guidance goes the next 2 days. ETA: and we're on the waa side of the low pressure. The only way I could see us getting totals like that would be a deeper dig and ending up on the nw side of the low. Nothing is pointing to that outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 SREFs like it too, can't be certain with the mean amount with the ncep maps, but definitely .25+ 0-lne passes us after the precip ends it looks like too can't find my plume link unfortuantely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 No, I don't think .80 is a realistic expectation. It's a fast moving vort with limited moisture. .25 - .50 would be a reasonable expectation. We'll see how guidance goes the next 2 days. ETA: and we're on the waa side of the low pressure. The only way I could see us getting totals like that would be a deeper dig and ending up on the nw side of the low. Nothing is pointing to that outcome. actually, the JMA has it further south than other models Bob which is the reason for its pecip amts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 SREFs like it too, can't be certain with the mean amount with the ncep maps, but definitely .25+ 0-lne passes us after the precip ends it looks like too can't find my plume link unfortuantely Very nice look on the individual members except for the NMB's, but there are several nice hits in there > .4 qpf and temps are solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Very nice look on the individual members except for the NMB's, but there are several nice hits in there > .4 qpf and temps are solid. NAM looks better so far, its a big colder and the shortwave looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 actually, the JMA has it further south than other models Bob which is the reason for its pecip amts. Oops. I never look at the jma. We'll see how guidance today handles the departing cape cod blaster. Nam already looks much more amped @ 42 than the gfs @ 48. Departing low over the ne is a little slower so heights in front may favor a more southern track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 48 HRS, that shortwave is angry, its going to be wetter than 12z that is for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Oops. I never look at the jma. We'll see how guidance today handles the departing cape cod blaster. Nam already looks much more amped @ 42 than the gfs @ 48. Departing low over the ne is a little slower so heights in front may favor a more southern track. today's system went way south so I have a hunch this will trend south too, though not as far as today's (but we don't need or want it that far!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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