Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The euro is a good model and gave us .20" so we may not be totally dead but I could see a bust even with the light amounts we forecast. I'm hoping for 1" across the region with a spotty 2 somewhere, then we won't look too bad. Areas west of 95 prob at the biggest risk of a low bust. I never feel good for my yard when the qpf distribution requires me to get into the western edge of coastal enhancememt to verify. Otoh- first band is remaining stout so far. I'll stay up for it. The lift and precip over the Delmarva is showing up now. Maybe the interaction keeps me in the game. Overall the cwg call is fine even if verification trims imo. Light events are sketchy because little things mean a lot. Doesn't afford the same wiggle as a bigger event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I think the front band looks better than the HRRR/Rap2 was showing earlier but it's still got another hour or so before we know what it will look like as it clears the highest peaks. I've been mobile 2 hrs or so as well so just radar watching for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 se wind snow events are notoriously the best ones around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 True west to east systems like this tend to jump the Piedmont in northern Va and re energize along the coast. Looks that way on radar to me! I mean the west to east movement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Confirmed snow precip right now in Roanoke Sent from my iPad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Btw..If I see snow tonight and after midnight snow would have fallen 6 out of the last 7 days. That is cool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 fwiw, radar seems to be further east and weaker than NAM sim rad top link is NAM sim/rad at 10PM bottom link is 9PM actual radar (the most recent radar image) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=003ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_003_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 True west to east systems like this tend to jump the Piedmont in northern Va and re energize along the coast. Looks that way on radar to me! I mean the west to east movement I don't recall many that have done much for us...really I look at it like a thunderstorm....I will see the rain shield just to my east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 It is a good sign that the band held together through Elkins. Some high peaks through that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 It is a good sign that the band held together through Elkins. Some high peaks through that area. weakened a ton but held up. will probably record a trace. im out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Had some light sleet/snow mix about 10 minutes ago. Woo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Newer HRRR/RAP2 runs give us slightly more than nothing with the first band but are weaker on the second band. Getting to 5/6" might be tough IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 that band is incoming at a fair clip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Winchester is going to win probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Winchester is going to win probably If it makes it to us. It will make it to you. Only one more range to cross after Winchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Looks like one small band and we are done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 If it makes it to us. It will make it to you. Only one more range to cross after Winchester.Yeah possibly tho at the moment the gap in the line is pointed this way. It does look better than the hi res show I think. It might only last 5 minutes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Looks like one small band and we are done. Yup... might as well just turn off the computer and head to bed then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Some 40dbz echoes in there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Some 40dbz echoes in there now. Headed your way This looks like a line of storms where you get hit for like 15 mins then its over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Some 40dbz echoes in there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Headed your way This looks like a line of storms where you get hit for like 15 mins then its over Yeah, pretty much. It's good practice for crappy squall season. I think the heaviest would miss north as is if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 image.jpgimage.jpg 45dbz now.. blowin up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Interesting SWS from CTP regarding this band (they include the bordering PA counties on the M/D line in it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 At least the green is turning blue. (Time sensitive) http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USVA0731&animate=true MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 45dbz now.. blowin up Capon Springs jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetalCapsFan Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Hey all! Quick question: do the models take geography and terrestrial features, i.e. the height of the Appalaichans, into account when coming up with their various solutions? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 radar looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Hey all! Quick question: do the models take geography and terrestrial features, i.e. the height of the Appalaichans, into account when coming up with their various solutions? Thanks in advance. yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 That hole over JMU is headed straight for DC proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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