WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Uh-oh, Dougie says Winchester is out. Dang. I was gonna stay up until 11 instead of 10:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 here comes our big front end thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 We really need to get the NAM running hourly ASAP. I honestly think that would be a terrible thing for me. It may be better if the nam ran monthly and the gfs/euro once per day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 HRRR________________EURO ^ Which to lean towards? Heck even put the RAP on the HRRR side, which side to lean toward? The only disquieting thing about the RAp and HRRR is normally with a low to our north, I'd put us at an inch max except that the models went wet earlier and still would argue 1-2 or maybe 3 if things worked perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Not sure the HRRR is any better than the RAP.. tho they are both spitting out pretty much the same solution (well, RAP2 and HRRR). I'd lol: hrrr_t_precip_washdc_16.png When I say RAP, I mean the hi res RAP as well. I dont find them THAT useful most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 HRRR________________EURO ^ Which to lean towards? Heck even put the RAP on the HRRR side, Ha, nice graphic. Not sure it would be wise to bite on no snow.. though I'm also not sure the Euro would win that battle every time. The hi res models have gotten a good deal better in recent years. They can be wildly wrong but I think when they keep spitting out the same scenario it's a little less likely they're totally off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Extrapolating the charleston wv radar is fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Radar does seem to be improving south of I-70. #weeniehallucinations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I'm huggin the hi res NMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Sure, we all hope that garbage is correct. I'm huggin the hi res NMM hrw-nmm_eus_030_precip_p12.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 That NMM run is very similar to the 18z GFS run. They are definitely bullish relative to the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 you gotta hate the mtns hrrr_ref_ma_5.png hrrr_ref_ma_9.png Current radar looks like the top image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Saw this coming...http://www.instantweathermaps.com/RAP-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014021723&time=INSTANT&var=REFD&hour=011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Well first batch is a no go. Lets see if the second batch can hold together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I think an inch will be the high end around the area. 2 inches is a stretch. You will get 3 to 5 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Interesting look to the radar. Looks like a incoming line of thunderstorms. If it holds together. I may have to stay up late tonight. Might be a short period of intense rates (possible convective activity). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 00z nam will be the most important run of my life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Well first batch is a no go. Lets see if the second batch can hold together. I don't think the first batch was ever supposed to do anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 00z nam will be the most important run of my life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Well, 21z SREFs still like 0.25"+ along a line from EZF to DCA to BWI and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Well, 21z SREFs still like 0.25"+ along a line from EZF to DCA to BWI and east Yep. The only issue I have with it is, like the 18Z Nam, it's a tad drier than the last 2 runs (09 and 15Z), where the .25" contour extended west of IAD. 18Z GFS trended drier as well from the 12Z. However, the "King" trended wetter at 12Z compared to it's 00Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Band in wv holding well so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 short range guidance says that stuff dies off on the other side of the mountains. I'm losing hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 NAM is pretty terrible. 0.06ish for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 We just got un-nam'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Yep. The only issue I have with it is, like the 18Z Nam, it's a tad drier than the last 2 runs (09 and 15Z), where the .25" contour extended west of IAD. 18Z GFS trended drier as well from the 12Z. However, the "King" trended wetter at 12Z compared to it's 00Z run. I don't much trust the SREF and am starting to think the HRRR and 00Z NAM are onto something. I should have known. I've nenver liked lows going to our north. Too many screw jobs with the NAM liking it more than what really happens and the SREF going heavy too. I'm losing faith in the CWG forecast....but we still have the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Actually, the radar doesn't look too bad so maybe there is hope. It will be interesting to see what happens to the echoes when they get on this side of the mountains. At least the RH is up some from earlier. Also, the euro ens mean gave us .2 with pretty much every member hitting us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Wes, you've said it many times through the years about n low tracks. There are exceptions but they are far fewer than inbound precip drying up. We'll see how it goes tonight. The enhancement with the coastal is a wildcard but if I get an inch I'll feel lucky for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 game over man? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Wes, you've said it many times through the years about n low tracks. There are exceptions but they are far fewer than inbound precip drying up. We'll see how it goes tonight. The enhancement with the coastal is a wildcard but if I get an inch I'll feel lucky for sure. The euro is a good model and gave us .20" so we may not be totally dead but I could see a bust even with the light amounts we forecast. I'm hoping for 1" across the region with a spotty 2 somewhere, then we won't look too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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