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Lol Monday night sneaky event


Ji

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Models don't know what to make of the pattern busting warm front charging into 15* dews and a 30.40 baro.  This is an occassion where radar will be a much better resource.

Hope you're right because most of the models are rather anemic with this. the short range models did fairly well with last weeks storm and not are impressive for tonight.

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The hi res models refuse to get better.

I would guess the short range models looked terrible before 1/7?/10 too at range (beyond 6 hours). Not saying they're not going to be right-just saying that that unanimous look on the 12z models of skipping 1-81 corridor and redeveloping over the metro areas does work out sometimes even if radar looks sketchy for awhile.

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The HRRR has generally an inch area wide. And do we really care what the RAP shows anyway? Its not correct that often. Either way this is an inch, maybe 2 type deal. 

Not sure the HRRR is any better than the RAP.. tho they are both spitting out pretty much the same solution (well, RAP2 and HRRR). 

 

I'd lol:

 

post-1615-0-52225200-1392679121_thumb.pn

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