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Lol Monday night sneaky event


Ji

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While snow would be nice, I'm somewhat concerned about the warm nose as it comes through, as seen on the NAM 925mb temperature profile:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=024ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_024_925_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=925_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

 

(This time matches the highest precip point)

 

Both surface and 850mb are sub-freezing, so it isn't a very thick layer that's at or above freezing.

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While snow would be nice, I'm somewhat concerned about the warm nose as it comes through, as seen on the NAM 925mb temperature profile:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=024ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_024_925_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=925_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

 

(This time matches the highest precip point)

 

Both surface and 850mb are sub-freezing, so it isn't a very thick layer that's at or above freezing.

 

not sure where you live but on the NAM by the time it gets here..say 11z...event is over...still certainly could be some mixing

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That's a 6hr precip map, that had already fallen before 7am

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LWX went 2-4 for Baltimore and surrounding areas. Bullish.

But sensible. I agree. 2" line bwi and ne with this one. Someone around the metro could get 3.5-4" as matt has been mentioning. Depends on two things: -if the coastal low enhances precip for the 95 area a bit longer and also if these 1-2in/hr+ rates are for real here.
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18Z NAM looks lame.

good timing, lol

Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC252 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014DCZ001-MDZ009-VAZ025>031-038>040-042-051>054-501-502-WVZ050-055-180400-/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0013.140218T0300Z-140218T1100Z/DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-MONTGOMERY-AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-HAMPSHIRE-HARDY-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...LEESBURG...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...WARRENTON...MOOREFIELD252 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO6 AM EST TUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECTFROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY.* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. SNOW MAY END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF  SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES. LITTLE OR NO ICE ACCUMULATION  FROM FREEZING RAIN.* TIMING...LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT.* TEMPERATURES...MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY...AND WITH  TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ANY UNTREATED ROADS WILL REMAIN SNOW  COVERED AND SLIPPERY THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET ANDFREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILEDRIVING.&&$$
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The hi res other than the NAM aren't too keen on that first band.  I could see this ending up like a 1-2 hr event in DC with the second band. I'm shooting to get DCA past seasonal climo I suppose.

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