Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 srefis0.3"forDClol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 srefis0.3"forDClol 2to4inchessoundslikeagoodchanceforDCandtotheNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 50% chance dca does as good as jan 21 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 50% chance dca does as good as jan 21 storm 50% chance D.C. mixes with rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 12z SPC-WRF drops 2-4 I-95 corridor and to the NE into MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 50% chance dca does as good as jan 21 storm ha..I thought you were talking about 1/2 10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 50% chance dca does as good as jan 21 storm 10% boom, 30% bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 12z SPC-WRF drops 2-4 I-95 corridor and to the NE into MD How bout the NGM. Nogaps or Suny MM5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 While snow would be nice, I'm somewhat concerned about the warm nose as it comes through, as seen on the NAM 925mb temperature profile: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=024ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_024_925_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=925_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M (This time matches the highest precip point) Both surface and 850mb are sub-freezing, so it isn't a very thick layer that's at or above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 While snow would be nice, I'm somewhat concerned about the warm nose as it comes through, as seen on the NAM 925mb temperature profile: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=024ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_024_925_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=925_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M (This time matches the highest precip point) Both surface and 850mb are sub-freezing, so it isn't a very thick layer that's at or above freezing. not sure where you live but on the NAM by the time it gets here..say 11z...event is over...still certainly could be some mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Not looking over by the nam: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=024ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_024_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Eastern half of our area still getting it at 12z (7am). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Not looking over by the nam: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=024ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_024_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Eastern half of our area still getting it at 12z (7am). That's a 6hr precip map, that had already fallen before 7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Wouldn't think Richmond has hit clump. City has missed one big storm to north, one to the south Richmond 30 year has slipped to a depressing 10.3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 How bout the NGM. Nogaps or Suny MM5? I dunno... I was waiting for the 18z NAM and I saw that model on the AmWx model suite... so I decided to check out what it had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Nam has the first decent band between midnight and 1am. I'll be up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 PHL went 1-2 and up to .1" ice on MD Eastern Shore counties... 2-4 for the NE MD county they issue for (re WWAs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 WWA up... 1-2" expected... midnight to 6am looks to be the time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 LWX went 2-4 for Baltimore and surrounding areas. Bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 LWX went 2-4 for Baltimore and surrounding areas. Bullish.But sensible. I agree. 2" line bwi and ne with this one. Someone around the metro could get 3.5-4" as matt has been mentioning. Depends on two things: -if the coastal low enhances precip for the 95 area a bit longer and also if these 1-2in/hr+ rates are for real here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 18Z NAM looks lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 18Z NAM looks lame. looks like the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 18Z NAM looks lame. good timing, lol Winter Weather AdvisoryURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC252 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014DCZ001-MDZ009-VAZ025>031-038>040-042-051>054-501-502-WVZ050-055-180400-/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0013.140218T0300Z-140218T1100Z/DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-MONTGOMERY-AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-HAMPSHIRE-HARDY-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...LEESBURG...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...WARRENTON...MOOREFIELD252 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO6 AM EST TUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECTFROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY.* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. SNOW MAY END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES. LITTLE OR NO ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN.* TIMING...LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT.* TEMPERATURES...MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY...AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ANY UNTREATED ROADS WILL REMAIN SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET ANDFREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILEDRIVING.&&$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 How bout the NGM. Nogaps or Suny MM5? ahh, d@mn NCEP doesn't want to seem to update today! http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mike/crb_ngm12.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 18Z NAM looks lame. looks like the euro LWX to the rescueeeeeeew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 LWX to the rescueeeeeeew Thanks for trying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Time to deliver my final #'s BWI: 1.9" DCA: .7" IAD: .4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The hi res other than the NAM aren't too keen on that first band. I could see this ending up like a 1-2 hr event in DC with the second band. I'm shooting to get DCA past seasonal climo I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 lwx 1-2" is good even including the 18z nam. This event has been a 1-3" type look from all guidance for a couple days now. coastal enhancement is always a wildcard anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 The winter sucks for this particular event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Thanks for trying working while posting and the inevitable delays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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