Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 You couldn't do much better timewise for maximizing snow from an imperfect storm. Start after midnight and end by sun up. yup...too bad we'll be sleeping...including me...I'm probably good until 2am, then bed, then I'll get up and measure again before it gets too light out..if I wake up at say 4:30am and check radar and see it is +SN, I'll probably get up for 10 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 0.3" gets DCA to 4th highest seasonal total in last 25 winters...currently only a 25" gap between 3rd and 4th right now 09-10: 56.1 95-96 - 46.0" 02-03 - 40.4" T - 99-00, 85-86: 15.4" 89-90 - 15.3" 13-14 - 15.2" For last 25 years, no tie with 85/86 right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 17z RAP seems to really want to hone in on the 4-7 am time period with a really heavy band moving through I-95 and into MD... 1-3 inches per hour rates in the band... showed the same at 16z... but it is at the very end of the RAP... so we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 For last 25 years, no tie with 85/86 right? yes...will correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 17z RAP seems to really want to hone in on the 4-7 am time period with a really heavy band moving through I-95 and into MD... 1-3 inches per hour rates in the band... showed the same at 16z... but it is at the very end of the RAP... so we shall see someone northeast of me and you will get 4"..not sure where Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 0.3" gets DCA to 4th highest seasonal total in last 25 winters...currently only a 25" gap between 3rd and 4th right now 09-10: 56.1 95-96 - 46.0" 02-03 - 40.4" 99-00 - 15.4" 89-90 - 15.3" 13-14 - 15.2" Depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 It's an unstable layer so it could support convection if it is correct. I don't see the layer on the GFS so the unstable layer may or may not be true but may explain the high hourly rates someone shows with one of the models. If I get my TSSN from this measley piece of crap I will be pissed and pleased at the same time. Thats a nice unstable layer. Classic instability too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Depressing. perhaps this winter will bring the 20" winter back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 someone northeast of me and you will get 4"..not sure where The band gets us though as well... around 9-10z... decent rates of 1+"... blows up some more just east and NE of us yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 A great lakes low warm front running into a 1030 VT/ME high equals stalled front and stalled precipitation. This may be one huge surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 yup...too bad we'll be sleeping...including me...I'm probably good until 2am, then bed, then I'll get up and measure again before it gets too light out..if I wake up at say 4:30am and check radar and see it is +SN, I'll probably get up for 10 minutes I'll have the lights on and look out when I wake to go to the bathroom and will try to get our early to measure the snow before the daytime melt starts. This should put me over 20 inches for the year, that'll make me happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I'll have the lights on and look out when I wake to go to the bathroom and will try to get our early to measure the snow before the daytime melt starts. This should put me over 20 inches for the year, that'll make me happy. You could get 3" if guidance is right you should have 23" by now?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 FWIW, 12z NMM drops .4 or so around DCA to BAL... EZF NE into PG County jackpot of .5"... FDK/IAD ~0.2" QPF... this is 24 hr total QPF from 12z today to 12z TUES. 12z ARW drops ~0.25 DCA/BWI/EZF... prob 0.15 to 0.20 FDK/IAD... this is 24 hr total QPF from 12z today to 12z TUES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 perhaps this winter will bring the 20" winter back A cursory check showed that DC and Raleigh are the only two major east coast cities from Atlanta through Boston that have not hit 30-yr climo yet. DC should get to climo tomorrow, while Philly, with any accumulation at all, will move into 3rd snowiest winter ever, beating 1898/1899 (!). This winter is definitely beyond well-above average and into historic territory for our northern tier counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 RR really likes the two-parter. First (very light) batch around 1-2am, and then again 4-5am with some heavier stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 RR really likes the two-parter. First batch around 1-2am, and then again 4-5am. Sounds like the RAP would agree as well... heaviest is the 4-5am part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Sounds like the RAP would agree as well... heaviest is the 4-5am part Same model. RR = Rapid Refresh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Same model. RR = Rapid Refresh I knew that... just making sure you knew that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmcwahoo Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Wouldn't think Richmond has hit clump. City has missed one big storm to north, one to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmcwahoo Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Should be climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmcwahoo Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Should be climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Looks like 0.25"+ QPF on the 15z SREFs again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 17z HRRR looks like the RAP in the aspect of the 1st band around the 1-2am time frame. Heaviest echoes for that band are around the MD/PA line up to my neck of the woods. The 2nd band on the back end of the run seems to be geared up for the later period. Looked strong already at the HR 15 spot. Could be a sweet quick thump. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Is the way this storm tracking right now even looking like it might give this area chance? It still seems like it needs to trend farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Sounds like the RAP would agree as well... heaviest is the 4-5am part Those rates are quite impressive, but I'm honestly still not convinced with this system yet. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/RAP-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014021718&time=INSTANT&var=SRATEI&hour=016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 someone northeast of me and you will get 4"..not sure where Cecil County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 0.3" gets DCA to 4th highest seasonal total in last 25 winters...currently only a 25" gap between 3rd and 4th right now 09-10: 56.1 95-96 - 46.0" 02-03 - 40.4" 99-00 - 15.4" 89-90 - 15.3" 13-14 - 15.2" Lol we haven't had a 20 inch winter once in 25 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Lol we haven't had a 20 inch winter once in 25 years? Phillip Seymour Hoffman died Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I have meetings in Laurel this week, and I have to be out the door at around 6:00. Should be a fun drive tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Is the way this storm tracking right now even looking like it might give this area chance? It still seems like it needs to trend farther south. Never mind the last four pages of discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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