Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I do, .25" is nothing to worry about, but a few inches or more is a pain in the butt... sorry, bad timing for me right now. I'll will it south for the rest of you understood...though it has been bad timing for me all winter not to get snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Hard to believe that dude was in Independence Day AND Full Metal Jacket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 understood...though it has been bad timing for me all winter not to get snow No matter how bad things get....I'd never cheer against snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I think she is having a rough time right now judging by her posts... Yea I just realized that after reading the whole thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 No matter how bad things get....I'd never cheer against snow It is always horrible timing for me not to get snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Here's a sounding at 09Z from the NAM near FDK. Makes you wonder about rates. Note how the red line slopes more to the left than the curved dashed line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Wes, care to explain how that impacts rates? Here's a sounding at 09Z from the NAM near FDK. Makes you wonder about rates. Note how the red line slopes more to the left than the curved dashed line. Pres_day_2014_sounding.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Euro is ~.15" - 0.2" for DCA..12am - 6am event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 ugh. no more snow I thought this type of statement was a banable offence here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Wes, care to explain how that impacts rates? It's an unstable layer so it could support convection if it is correct. I don't see the layer on the GFS so the unstable layer may or may not be true but may explain the high hourly rates someone shows with one of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 For DC GGEM: ~0.25" Euro: ~0.18" GFS - 0.21" NAM - 0.34" 0.2" seems about a good forecast,,,hopefully no mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 WWA's should go up soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Thank you for the explanation. It's an unstable layer so it could support convection if it is correct. I don't see the layer on the GFS so the unstable layer may or may not be true but may explain the high hourly rates someone shows with one of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 For DC GGEM: ~0.25" Euro: ~0.18" GFS - 0.21" NAM - 0.34" 0.2" seems about a good forecast,,,hopefully no mixing Seems a pretty clear cut 1-3" range for forecasts in the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 mostly to figure out precip as it's 10:1... tho could be close in this case. def better to have it 'aboard'. the other models have overdone precip too consistently over winter to get too excited without the euro even at this range imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Seems a pretty clear cut 1-3" range for forecasts in the metro area. yeah...maybe 1-3" for IAD/DCA, and 2-4" for Annapolis - BWI...not widespread 4", but someone will get 4" hoping for an 11pm start....so I can see some accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Hpc says discard the nam fwiw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 mostly to figure out precip as it's 10:1... tho could be close in this case. def better to have it 'aboard'. the other models have overdone precip too consistently over winter to get too excited without the euro even at this range imo. ecmwf_tsnow_washdc_6.png Just to the east of Wes's nipple is the jackpot, hopefully it will back west a drop and he will get jack potted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 mostly to figure out precip as it's 10:1... tho could be close in this case. def better to have it 'aboard'. the other models have overdone precip too consistently over winter to get too excited without the euro even at this range imo. ecmwf_tsnow_washdc_6.png that is a good run....makes 0.25" believable...though I would probably forecast less for us...I coul see a 1.5" IMBY...I assume it will underperform Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Hpc says discard the nam fwiw... I assume they are mainly focusing on PHL and NYC where QPF is lol....But thanks for stopping by!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 mostly to figure out precip as it's 10:1... tho could be close in this case. def better to have it 'aboard'. the other models have overdone precip too consistently over winter to get too excited without the euro even at this range imo. ecmwf_tsnow_washdc_6.png It matters more for Baltimore metro, I think. For DC, the range across the models is not that big at this point- 0.2-0.35". And all the the models are wetter today than they were yesterday. So, the upside is not a large snow-- just moderate-- and we seem to have a lower floor of around an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Its looking like Baltimore metro might be the "jackpot" here? Any concerns with mixing or is this all snow? Sent from my XT907 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 that is a good run....makes 0.25" believable...though I would probably forecast less for us...I coul see a 1.5" IMBY...I assume it will underperform yeah it's solid. i think 1" is a good bet at the least.. i'm not sure how much additional qpf we're seeing from the low enhancement.. dunno if I'd bank on that too heavily. but these debates about 0.1" liquid are always a lot trickier than we give them credit for. it will be cold going in at least even with tons of sun today. dews are really low still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 It matters more for Baltimore metro, I think. For DC, the range across the models is not that big at this point- 0.2-0.35". And all the the models are wetter today than they were yesterday. So, the upside is not a large snow-- just moderate-- and we seem to have a lower floor of around an inch. I guess I hadn't looked at everything.. Just now glancing at the NAM and Canadian they are pretty wet comparatively. I am mostly a GFS/Euro blend n00b unless there's a big storm. The group does look pretty decent for DC/east/NE especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Its looking like Baltimore metro might be the "jackpot" here? Any concerns with mixing or is this all snow? Sent from my XT907 The bulk of the precip should be snow but the NAm soundings suggest it could end as freezing drizzle as the dry air comes in aloft and the cloud tops lower and because they lower, get warmer. The nam is sometimes too aggressive with the dry layer but I wouldn't rule out a little freezing drizzle after the heavier precip rates start pooping out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 start time GFS - 1am NAM - 1am GGEM - 12am Euro - 12am RAP -12am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 0.3" gets DCA to 4th highest seasonal total in last 25 winters...currently only a 25" gap between 3rd and 4th right now 09-10: 56.1 95-96 - 46.0" 02-03 - 40.4" 99-00 - 15.4" 89-90 - 15.3" 13-14 - 15.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Only 27 degrees here at 1:30pm under full sun. (just looking for the positive...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 start time GFS - 1am NAM - 1am GGEM - 12am Euro - 12am RAP -12am You couldn't do much better timewise for maximizing snow from an imperfect storm. Start after midnight and end by sun up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.