SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Been away all weekend, are temps an issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Between that, the RR updates, and the HRRR going into the NCEP production suite, exciting times for mets and weather weenies alike. As a casual observer, you would think that the technology/programs, etc. would be updated regularly, or on an ongoing basis. Is it a cost factor, or simply not enough data to justify an upgrade (so to speak)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 surface temps, no. Maybe a bit of a warm nose causing a mix for the usual folks. Been away all weekend, are temps an issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Nice map, but I have seen just enough of these since my move into the area to know that the snowfall tends to be overdone down this way in this kind of set-up. An inch or two seems like a reasonable hope. Phineas and Cecil County should be better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 We sure are giving the 12Z NAM a lot of credit. Do any other models show anything even close to this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Most are a general 1-2, maybe 3 in spots up your way. We sure are giving the 12Z NAM a lot of credit. Do any other models show anything even close to this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 We sure are giving the 12Z NAM a lot of credit. Do any other models show anything even close to this? Recency. NAM did well a week ago, so maybe give it a longer look at this point. Plus, hugging the snowiest model and all that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 We sure are giving the 12Z NAM a lot of credit. Do any other models show anything even close to this? remember, you said "any other model"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 RGEM shows .4" qpf similar location as NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 link to above RGEM map http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/592_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 As a casual observer, you would think that the technology/programs, etc. would be updated regularly, or on an ongoing basis. Is it a cost factor, or simply not enough data to justify an upgrade (so to speak)? well, EMC can't just continually throw new stuff into models. There is a rigorous testing procedure, and once a "bundle" of code changes are constructed, NCEP Central Operations does the final testing and leads the user evaluation. NCO has been in need of more personnel (which they're finally getting now) to work on getting EMC upgrades into production, so other model implementations must occur before NCO can start work on new ones. And NCEP upgraded to a new supercomputer last year, and this required that all efforts in EMC/NCO be put into converting all codes to run on the new system. Having this new supercomputer in place now will help us greatly in the long run, but basically no model upgrades took place for almost a year during the transition, and we're just starting to catch up now. Of course, there will be always be limits on how many upgrades can be in progress at one time, so most models can only be upgraded every 2 years or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 RGEM 19hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 RGEM 19hrs 19hr.png looms like a squall line of summertime t-storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 RGEM 19hrs 19hr.png Nice hit. No school again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Nice hit. No school again? It's just the nam and the RGEM, but banking on 1-2 inches should extend your weekend for at least two hours. 2-4 would give you another day in most counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 RAP has a nice band of snow in the area at 3am. The run stops there, so not really sure how much it drops. Will know more in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 We all know how well we do with a transfer storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 It's just the nam and the RGEM, but banking on 1-2 inches should extend your weekend for at least two hours. 2-4 would give you another day in most counties.At this rate, I'll be teaching until July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 At this rate, I'll be teaching until July. blank stares thru mid summer for you, ehh?....dag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 At this rate, I'll be teaching until July. Same here... I like snow days, but this is starting to get to be too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 We all know how well we do with a transfer storm It's not a transfer storm. The bulk of the precip falls from pretty stout band of warm air advection precip out in front of the low to the north. Areas further east get enhanced by coastal development. That will likely verify east but the 1-2" is before any enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Same here... I like snow days, but this is starting to get to be too much dunce corner for you Yoda! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 It's not a transfer storm. The bulk of the precip falls from pretty stout band of warm air advection precip out in front of the low to the north. Areas further east get enhanced by coastal development. That will likely verify east but the 1-2" is before any enhancement. yeah, what you see with these is the front of snow moves through and seemingly slows down as radar echos get brighter as it moves east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Maybe JMA was on to something not just on something Warning criteria in Harford and Cecil. LOL. Commutergeddon Deux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 It's not a transfer storm. The bulk of the precip falls from pretty stout band of warm air advection precip out in front of the low to the north. Areas further east get enhanced by coastal development. That will likely verify east but the 1-2" is before any enhancement. That pretty much sums it up though the nam soundings are suggesting it could end as freezing drizzle as the dry layer comes in and the cloud tops lower. Still most or all of it should be snow. I like the 1-2 but might go 1-3 if we do get enhancement as the new low tries to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I'm hugging the Euro because it's the driest and usually right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Maybe JMA was on to something not just on something Warning criteria in Harford and Cecil. LOL. Commutergeddon Deux. We must be thinking of different storms here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 That pretty much sums it up though the nam soundings are suggesting it could end as freezing drizzle as the dry layer comes in and the cloud tops lower. Still most or all of it should be snow. I like the 1-2 but might go 1-3 if we do get enhancement as the new low tries to form. RGEM is pretty bullish on the overall qpf fields. Shows .30+ before any enhancement from what I can see on the 3hr panels. I'll lock this up and move on to torchier times. The first blue line is .40. Pretty much .35+ through dc metro. ETA: I meant to say shows .20 areawide before enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 We must be thinking of different storms here.. Hyperbole referencing PSU Hoffman storm. This will obviously be better advertised and better timing so most should not be caught of guard. Trends are ominous for the central MD commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Very different. That storm hit hard during the evening commute. This will do its thing before most get on the road in the morning and it won't be as hard as that storm. Hyperbole referencing PSU Hoffman storm. This will obviously be better advertised and better timing so most should not be caught of guard. Trends are ominous for the central MD commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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