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2/15 Obs Thread


jm1220

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1.5" new on old snowpack in e. brunswick

 

cloudy.  32F

 

 

Wow, what a difference just a few miles to your north here in Middlesex county. I don't even have a quarter inch  of new snow on the old snowpack.

That's a surprise.  We got 1" new on the old snowpack and about 1/4" on paved surfaces (untreated), like my asphalt driveway.  Been a steady 33F with steady light pixie dust for the last 90 minutes or so - seems like just enough to balance the melting going on.  Hoping the afternoon's action gets us another 2" or so and that most of it falls after about 4 pm, when the impact of the indirect sunlight will be much less, allowing more accumulation. 

 

NWS-Philly discussion reflects how challenging the forecast is both for temps and precip type across the area.  This isn't the kind of system where there's fairly uniform precip - will be in bands, so variability in accumulations, between an inch or less and 3-4" will be large. Tough call. 

 

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1240 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

 

-- Changed Discussion --

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AND GAIN STRENGTH

NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AT MIDDAY. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY

SHOWS A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW PROVIDING ENERGY TO THIS SURFACE

LOW, AND THEREFORE THE STORM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TO THE

NORTHEAST. A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST

SIDE OF THE STORM CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA, HOWEVER THE

BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE PLAYING HAVOC WITH THE

PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. THE

CORRELATION COEFFICIENT DATA VIA DUAL-POL SHOWS THE RAIN/SNOW LINE

TENDING TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS IS BEING

CONFIRMED BY KTTN AND KPNE NOW REPORTING SNOW. THE MODEL GUIDANCE

CONTINUES TO SHOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 925 MB COOLING EASTWARD THIS

AFTERNOON AS THE STORM SLIDES NORTHEAST, ALLOWING THE COLUMN TO

SUPPORT ALL SNOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW

FOR A TIME BEFORE ENDING ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.

THE GREATEST LIFT FOR AWHILE IS OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO

NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE AIRMASS IS COLDER. IT

IS HERE WHERE MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY SNOWFALL INTENSITY WILL OCCUR

AT TIMES IN SOME BANDING TYPE FEATURES. WHILE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES

ARE NOT TERRIBLY COLD FOR THIS REGION, THE INCREASED SNOWFALL

RATES WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY ON ROADWAYS.

NO CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA ATTM. THE AREAS

JUST EAST OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY ARE TOUGHER GIVEN A MILDER

BOUNDARY LAYER, HOWEVER A CHANGE TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE

EASTWARD. THEREFORE, A BURST OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD PUT

DOWN AN INCH OR TWO. HOWEVER, HELD OFF ON ADDING TO THE ADVISORY.

AS THE TRANSITION OCCURS, WE ARE GETTING REPORTS OF SOME SLEET

MIXING IN.

EVEN FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS WARMER WHICH

WILL RESULT IN RAIN THAT SHOULD END AS SOME SNOW LATER THIS

AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, NO CHANGES TO THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ATTM

WHICH SHOW AMOUNTS DROPPING OFF WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT. WE

WILL HAVE TO WATCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH REGARDING HOW MUCH

WRAPAROUND OCCURS AS THE AIRMASS IS COOLING.

 

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So much drama on this board sometimes, lol.  When there's a storm like this one that looked like flurries until 36 hours ago, I consider anything we get to be a bonus.  Sure, I'd like to see 3-4" accumulating on every surface, but it's still nice just to watch some falling snow, even if some of it melts.  Pretty sure we're all way above average this season...

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