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2/15 Obs Thread


jm1220

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Here in the Poconos (Big Bass Lake) this was earlier as I am here for the weekend. Just to get an idea on what additional has fallen, you now can no longer see the red wood deck rail top the deck lanterns are sitting on in the video.

 

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10203389978849657&l=3881081352681473468

 

post-1344-0-76799200-1392493986_thumb.jp

 

To scale this better I am 5'8" and the snow would be up past my stomach.

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So much drama on this board sometimes, lol.  When there's a storm like this one that looked like flurries until 36 hours ago, I consider anything we get to be a bonus.  Sure, I'd like to see 3-4" accumulating on every surface, but it's still nice just to watch some falling snow, even if some of it melts.  Pretty sure we're all way above average this season...

 I don't know what the New Brunswick total is, but NYC is at 54. This seems like one of those typical nonevents for us. It's really been just sleet and flurries with a few bands now and then; right now we're back to flurries. haven't been paying much attention because I got a lot to do. We aren't expected to do much our way with this one.

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Nice update from Mt. Holly in the AFD. Kind of a long way of saying, could be a few inches almost anywhere N/W of I-95, but pinpointing exactly where is difficult. WWAdvisories were renewed 20 minutes ago for the whole region from the NW Philly burbs through Mercer/Middlesex and all counties N/W of there. Would love to still pick up 1-2" more this afternoon to go with the bonus 1" we got earlier - radar looks to be filling back in and we're starting to pick up in the snow intensity towards moderate.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

252 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

-- Changed Discussion --AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN EAST OF THE MID

ATLANTIC COAST. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY IMPRESSIVE

SHORT WAVE THAT IS TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR

SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THE SURFACE LOW AS IT

HEADS TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHIELD OF

PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM CONTINUES

ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA, HOWEVER THIS HAS BEEN VARYING REGARDING

ORGANIZATION. THE BETTER FOCUSED LIFT ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF 850-700

MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING HAS BEEN ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. THIS IN

COMBINATION WITH A COLDER THERMAL PROFILE AND GREATER LIFT IN THE

DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE IS RESULTING IN HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES.

THIS IS ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT OR COLLAPSE EASTWARD AS THE SURFACE LOW

INTENSIFIES OFFSHORE INTO THIS EVENING.

THE CORRELATION COEFFICIENT VIA DUAL-POL RADAR DATA HAS SHOWN FAIRLY

WELL THE RAIN/SNOW LINE AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH AND EASTWARD. THIS IS

BEING CONFIRMED BY MORE SNOW BEING REPORTED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95

CORRIDOR. THE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS CAUSING SNOW TO MIX WITH

SLEET OR SOME RAIN AT TIMES WHEN IT LIGHTENS UP. THE MODEL GUIDANCE

CONTINUES TO SHOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 925 MB COOLING EASTWARD INTO

THIS EVENING AS THE STORM SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD, ALLOWING THE COLUMN TO

SUPPORT ALL SNOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RAIN OR A MIX CHANGING TO

SNOW FOR A TIME BEFORE ENDING ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES. THE BEST

LIFT MAY END UP SHIFTING FROM ABOUT THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA ON

NORTHEASTWARD AS THE SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. THERE SHOULD

BE SOME WRAPAROUND THAT OCCURS, HOWEVER MUCH OF OUR CWA MAY END UP

MISSING OUT ON THIS AS THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PIVOTS FARTHER TO

OUR EAST. GIVEN HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS ACROSS OUR WESTERN

ZONES ALONG WITH SOME REPORTS SO FAR, WE INCREASED THE SNOW TOTALS

SOME. SOUTH AND EAST OF HERE, AMOUNTS WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE

THERE WAS A LIGHTER PRECIPITATION INTENSITY LONGER. WE DID ADJUST

THE END TIME OF THE ADVISORY THOUGH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW

JERSEY, EXTENDING IT A FEW HOURS INTO THIS EVENING AS WRAPAROUND MAY

OCCUR. WE OPTED TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY FOR CECIL COUNTY AS ANY SNOW

SHOULD BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES AND THIS AREA WILL HAVE AN END TO THE

PRECIPITATION SOONER COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER NORTHEAST.

A CONCERN FOR ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR /MAINLY

NORTHEAST OF WILMINGTON/ IS THAT AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES, A PERIOD

OF ENHANCED LIFT PROVIDES FOR A BURST OF SNOW AS TEMPERATURES LOWER

TOWARD FREEZING. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW.

THEREFORE, WE MAINTAINED AMOUNTS FOR HERE WITH NO ADVISORY. FARTHER

SOUTH AND EAST, A MILDER BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH A DELAY IN THE

COOLING WILL DELAY THE MIX AND CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. THEREFORE WHILE

THE RAIN SHOULD END AS SOME SNOW, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN

THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

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