Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Its kind of funny the precip will kind of come through like a line of thunderstorms. (based on sim radar), since the vort tracks N of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Hr 39 weak secondary off the Delmarva. Heaviest snow eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Its kind of funny the precip will kind of come through like a line of thunderstorms. (based on sim radar), since the vort tracks N of us.it's a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 All areas east of the PA/NJ line are 0.25" plus this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 No help from the West Coast (upstream trend) OPC 48hr 500mb FLATLINE http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/ http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The NAM BL of mid 30s in CNJ NYC and LI look suspect to me. .5 liquid thru minus 2 to 4 air. Yet the sounding do not suggest snow there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The NAM BL of mid 30s in CNJ NYC and LI look suspect to me. .5 liquid thru minus 2 to 4 air. Yet the sounding do not suggest snow there . Another case of models not resolving evaporative cooling, the MOS is 31/20 when snow starts, thats gonna be primarily snow til the end when it may end as some drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 NAM surface is 31.5 degrees as the snow starts. AFTER it ends, the surface rises to 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 What should be said here is that this is VERY quick hitting, if you buy the NAM. Edit: which is why you are seeing high surface temps... It comes in and out. And the result is a pop in the temps after it goes adios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The NAM BL of mid 30s in CNJ NYC and LI look suspect to me. .5 liquid thru minus 2 to 4 air. Yet the sounding do not suggest snow there . The NAM has sometimes had issues with warm advection snows warming the column too aggressively. February 5 is a good recent example. The NAM's soundings indicated almost no snow would fall in the NYC Metro Area, yet NYC picked up 4.0" and EWR received 4.1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 4K NAM shows an explosion of snow as the system deepens just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Well, snow maps from the NAM show basically nothing for NYC/NE NJ...2-4" NW Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Another case of models not resolving evaporative cooling, the MOS is 31/20 when snow starts, thats gonna be primarily snow til the end when it may end as some drizzle.[/quotI agree. If .5 liquid falls thru minus 4 air I just hav to believe thats snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The NAM has sometimes had issues with warm advection snows warming the column too aggressively. February 5 is a good recent example. The NAM's soundings indicated almost no snow would fall in the NYC Metro Area, yet NYC picked up 4.0" and EWR received 4.1". I'm wiling to take that look. .5 and minus 2 to minus 4 at knyc Think that would work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Well, snow maps from the NAM show basically nothing for NYC/NE NJ...2-4" NW This makes no sense based on the analysis for the nam Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 NAM surface is 31.5 degrees as the snow starts. AFTER it ends, the surface pops to 36. NAM surface is 31.5 degrees as the snow starts. AFTER it ends, the surface pops to 36. AG what do the soundings look like at JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The Hi-res nam snow map gives me 6" in Essex county and 6"+ for most of Bergen county....1-3" for most of NYC Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Another case of models not resolving evaporative cooling, the MOS is 31/20 when snow starts, thats gonna be primarily snow til the end when it may end as some drizzle.[/quotI agree. If .5 liquid falls thru minus 4 air I just hav to believe thats snow. Bufkit agrees. The 0z 4km NAM prints out 4.0" snow at LGA (Maximum Temperature in Profile algorithm) before the precipitation ends as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I don;t know whats worse, those snow maps or BUFKIT...BUFKIT is not bad if you look at soundings but its Ptype tends to run too cold, it will show snow with a 850mb layer of +2C or show sleet with a surface temps of 42. ...my guess is the NAM BUFKIT will show entirely snow although that too will be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Bufkit agrees. The 0z 4km NAM prints out 4.0" snow at LGA (Maximum Temperature in Profile algorithm) before the precipitation ends as rain. Ok , when I looked at Maue s snow maps i know he uses the soundings to approximate amounts and it didn't show anything At KNYC So wasn't sure if that's still an unresolved prob with there algo or the soundings didn't see the evaporative cooling . Ok good. Think Upton and mt holly were early with this and may turn out to be a very good early call by both offices Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I don;t know whats worse, those snow maps or BUFKIT...BUFKIT is not bad if you look at soundings but its Ptype tends to run too cold, it will show snow with a 850mb layer of +2C or show sleet with a surface temps of 42. ...my guess is the NAM BUFKIT will show entirely snow although that too will be wrong. I love those guys but the snow maps will make ur head spin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I don;t know whats worse, those snow maps or BUFKIT...BUFKIT is not bad if you look at soundings but its Ptype tends to run too cold, it will show snow with a 850mb layer of +2C or show sleet with a surface temps of 42. ...my guess is the NAM BUFKIT will show entirely snow although that too will be wrong. I agree. My thoughts as per the NAM run would be that the run, taking into consideration the above and the NAM's not infrequent overly aggressive warming of the column, supported something in the 1"-3"/2"-4" range for the greater NYC area (lower figures at JFK and higher figures at NYC) and perhaps an inch or two higher in the immediate northern and western suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Ok , when I looked at Maue s snow maps i know he uses the soundings to approximate amounts and it didn't show anything At KNYC So wasn't sure if that's still an unresolved prob with there algo or the soundings didn't see the evaporative cooling . Ok good. Think Upton and mt holly were early with this and may turn out to be a very good early call by both offices I'm not sure how his maps calculate the snowfall. It will be interesting to see the future model runs and then the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I don;t know whats worse, those snow maps or BUFKIT...BUFKIT is not bad if you look at soundings but its Ptype tends to run too cold, it will show snow with a 850mb layer of +2C or show sleet with a surface temps of 42. ...my guess is the NAM BUFKIT will show entirely snow although that too will be wrong. BL temps from the 4km NAM Bufkit is marginal for LGA. JFK is also mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 BL temps from the 4km NAM Bufkit is marginal for LGA. JFK is also mostly rain. 4k nam 850s. Minus 5 to minus 6 .6 QPF at KNYC. Shows no snow. Not right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 4k nam 850s. Minus 5 to minus 6 .6 QPF at KNYC. Shows no snow. Not right The NAM has low-level SE flow of about 15-30kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The NAM has low-level SE flow of about 15-30kts. Critical thicknesses on the front side of a significant mid level Ridge are also not great. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=039ℑ=data%2Fnam-hires%2F00%2Fnam-hires_namer_039_850_700_thick.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=850_700_thick&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Critical thicknesses on the front side of a significant mid level Ridge are also not great. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=039ℑ=data%2Fnam-hires%2F00%2Fnam-hires_namer_039_850_700_thick.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=850_700_thick&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= Just not sure with minus 5 with .5 falling the BL doesn't cool. ( as long as the 925 sr ok) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 SSTs off the coast are in the lower to mid 30's, SE wind isnt going to hurt like in Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 SSTs off the coast are in the lower to mid 30's, SE wind isnt going to hurt like in Dec I've always assumed the fetch of moist air coming in with a storm off the coast includes air originating hundreds of miles away, like off the Gulf Stream, which is much warmer than the mid-30s. Not sure what the aggregate air temp coming in via SE winds is, but I imagine it's warmer than just the air right off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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