PB GFI Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 And it's the least reliable of all the models. Was their more on the 6z? Ross. All numerical solutions are part of guidance. Cant dismiss because we don't like. Lets see what happens going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Would like to see how the GGEM GFS and EURO look. Fwiw the warmth that's coming on the backside of this doesn't look to b more than a 5 day period Agreed. I think the warming occurs after the main precipitation has ceased. Maybe some light rain/drizzle at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 WPC for Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 12z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Ok track...but not much precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 12z RGEM It looks fairly impressive at the end of the run right now....definitely better than the NAM and GFS Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Here are the Bufkit accumulations for select NYC Metro Area sites for the overruning event (12z NAM/Maximum Temperature in Profile Algorithm): BDR: 1.6" EWR: 1.1" HPN: 1.3" ISP: 1.0" JFK: 0.7" LGA: 1.0" POU: 1.3" (also shows around 0.5" tonight into early tomorrow morning) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Here are the Bufkit accumulations for select NYC Metro Area sites for the overruning event (12z NAM/Maximum Temperature in Profile Algorithm): BDR: 1.6" EWR: 1.1" HPN: 1.3" ISP: 1.0" JFK: 0.7" LGA: 1.0" POU: 1.3" (also shows around 0.5" tonight into early tomorrow morning) Don that looks like hour 51. 48 is colder right ? But those surface s would look right to me because there's no precip. I like the 850 s though. And if matches up with the ggem Jma and Euro qpf. Those surfaces would cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Don that looks like hour 51. 48 is colder right ? But those surface s would look right to me because there's no precip. I like the 850 s though. And if matches up with the ggem Jma and Euro qpf. Those surfaces would cool Hour 48 is colder. A few sites switch over to sleet just before the precipitation ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 GFS doesn't look too enthused with this event. Shows basically nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 GFS doesn't look to enthused with this event. Shows basically nothing. Looks like light rain and snow. The shortwave isn't digging like some models had it yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Looks like light rain and snow. The shortwave isn't digging like some models had it yesterday. It's very light snow to drizzle at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 So here we are again the Americans vs the Globals. Who wins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 GFS actually looked very strong with the Vort than it deammplified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 At 12z yesterday the euro was .7. At 0z it looked like .4 At knyc. If the euro is somewhere in between that today at 12z then I would go with the Euro and the Canadian which hasn't given up any ground in the last 36 hours. For me there to much moving around qpf wise w the gfs and the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 12z rgem looks to be some pretty heavy snow for the jersey shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Hoping for a 3-6" event in Monmouth county.. Far fetched? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 GFS isn't digging the S/W enough. We would want it to go south of us for there to be more than just some light snow. It might come and go fast enough to avoid mixing, but that's a concern as well. It still has some time to trend deeper, but if not places north of us might have a better outcome than we will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 GFS isn't digging the S/W enough. We would want it to go south of us for there to be more than just some light snow. It might come and go fast enough to avoid mixing, but that's a concern as well. It still has some time to trend deeper, but if not places north of us might have a better outcome than we will. I think mixing will be limited, because the warming comes in after the main precipitation is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 12z rgem looks to be some pretty heavy snow for the jersey shore Hoping for a 3-6" event in Monmouth county.. Far fetched? you've arrived shot out of a cannon with your weenie flag flying. i bet you'll need to be 50 miles north to get a chance for 3"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I think mixing will be limited, because the warming comes in after the main precipitation is done. Me too. Most SWFE typically like to drizzle on the end. Once the rates relax the BL pops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Me too. Most SWFE typically like to drizzle on the end. Once the rates relax the BL pops RGEM isn't good. Light snow and then drizzle. I'm out for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I think mixing will be limited, because the warming comes in after the main precipitation is done. I think so too. The column is dries out rapidly after first band of snow. The main question how much precip. Past light WAA events,the models have underdone the amount of precip. So I'm skeptical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I tried to say it, it's probably some snow to rain, can't really complain though. Looking forward to the mild period actually.mild period very short lived on 12z gfs fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Someone says rgem has heavy snow then someone else says rgem isn't good. What does it show for NYC is it good or bad?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Someone says rgem has heavy snow then someone else says rgem isn't good. What does it show for NYC is it good or bad?? It's at the end of its range when the precip gets here, although to me it seems to want to come in with good precip (snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 The RGEM at 48 hours is starting to bring precip into the area and would probably end up looking like the GGEM Just reading the MT Holly and Uptons AFDs they seem to be buying the snowier solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 12z UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 12z UK ukmetNE_500_avort_042.gif ukmetNE_sfc_cthk_048.gif ukmetNE_sfc_prec_048.gif ukmetNE_500_avort_048.gif ukmetNE_sfc_cthk_060.gif ukmetNE_sfc_prec_060.gif Solid 2-4 for the metro with no mixing issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 GGEM would probably be 0.25" or so, UK 0.25-0.4", GFS and NAM drier. So I'd say 2-4" is a good bet for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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