SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 This is a bastardized northern stream event, its technically in the northern branch of the jet but its not diving out of Canada or a data sparse region, its coming more straight out of the Pacific...this is the exact sort of system the GFS can but does not always struggle with but its definitely not true northern stream out of Canada where the GFS has done better all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Wow, Ukie looks really nice. GGEM still looks nice but cut back on the amounts from 12z. huh? On the Ukie in 12 hrs the low goes from Toronto to Boston....how is that nice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 huh? On the Ukie in 12 hrs the low goes from Toronto to Boston....how is that nice? A lot of precip and cold enough for snow in our area. The GGEM gives NYC some rain at the end. The low ends up further north than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 16, 2014 Author Share Posted February 16, 2014 It does seem the the GEM is looking more like the GFS. Maybe the US may win. Like today's system it may not over performing like it was just a few days ago. I will be very interested in tonight's ECMWF run. I have the felling I might have been wrong in my earlier posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 A lot of precip and cold enough for snow in our area. The GGEM gives NYC some rain at the end. The low ends up further north than the 12z run. I'd rather have a weaker event that doesn't rush warm air into the region. A light snow event sure beats a stronger rain event with some snow to start which goes to slop/mush. A strong solution that keeps us snow will have to form well south of the region and wrap fast. SE winds anytime of the year are killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I'd rather have a weaker event that doesn't rush warm air into the region. A light snow event sure beats a stronger rain event with some snow to start which goes to slop/mush. A strong solution that keeps us snow will have to form well south of the region and wrap fast. SE winds anytime of the year are killer. We have to hope for a Euro solution with a secondary low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Hmm.....I wonder why mount holly is so bullish on this event.....I know there is some model guidance supporting it, but it doesn't seem like nearly enough to say that a mod to heavy snow is expected, yet at least Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 JMA http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_72HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesny Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Any word on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Euro has less precip than 12z. Secondary is further north on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Euro is 2-4" for NW suburbs and nothing to 2" for the city area and nearby nj Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 So basically GGEM and EURO just teased us with those big 12z runs. Now they look like the American models. This is looking like a small 1 to 3 inch event. Can't complain since we've had plenty of big storms this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 GGEM shows 2-3" from Phil to NYC, more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Ukie is wettest but also warmest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 16, 2014 Author Share Posted February 16, 2014 .40 ECMWF for NYC BL goes from -2.2 to 2.5 850 stays well below 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Euro had .7 for the city before.. now .4?. Well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 The 6z NAM prints out .4 at KNYC with 850s in the minus 2 to minus 4 but the BL is just too warm . Not sure what the 12z GGEM and 12z EURO saw but nothing at 0z resembled that . Would look for continuity today before I jump back on that bang wagon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I haven't checked what did the 06 runs have for the NW burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I tried to say it, it's probably some snow to rain, can't really complain though. Looking forward to the mild period actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 The NAM Bufkit suggest we are snow to drizzle by 15z or 16z Monday. We loose snow growth. Column dries out down to 750mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I tried to say it, it's probably some snow to rain, can't really complain though. Looking forward to the mild period actually. Same here, although it's just 1-2 days lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I just want it to warm up enough to get the driveway scraped down to pavement. Its sketchy right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I tried to say it, it's probably some snow to rain, can't really complain though. Looking forward to the mild period actually. You said it based on reading you're high temp on weather.com. That's not analysis . We will see what the model say today , We base our probabilities off that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 You said it based on reading you're high temp on weather.com. That's not analysis . We will see what the model say today , We base our probabilities off that . Anybody who bases they're forecast off a weather.com deserves a they arent even really considered a legit weather station anymore in my eyes. The best weather info IMO is here, anything else is second hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 12z nam total precip for Tuesday system. Surface temps look warm on the nam too. At 48 the 850s are minus 10. The surface is 30. At 51 850. s are minus 8 the surface is 35. That's because the precip light. If there's heavier precip the surface is colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 At 48 the 850s are minus 10. The surface is 30. At 51 850. s are minus 8 the surface is 35. That's because the precip light. If there's heavier precip the surface is colder. Pauly, How much snow falls on nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 At 48 the 850s are minus 10. The surface is 30. At 51 850. s are minus 8 the surface is 35. That's because the precip light. If there's heavier precip the surface is colder. Agree. Since I didn't know I couldn't post that image here is the NWS total precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Pauly, How much snow falls on nam? Nothing for us some light snow nw of nyc but its 850s are very cold. So if the euro .4. GGEM and JMA .5 are right I would take the nam aloft But it's one model and have to see the entire suite today and see how the models wana handle this . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Nothing for us some light snow nw of nyc but its 850s are very cold. So if the euro .4. GGEM and JMA .5 are right I would take the nam aloft But it's one model and have to see the entire suite today and see how the models wana handle this . And it's the least reliable of all the models. Was their more on the 6z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Agree. Since I didn't know I couldn't post that image here is the NWS total precipitation. Would like to see how the GGEM GFS and EURO look. Fwiw the warmth that's coming on the backside of this doesn't look to b more than a 5 day period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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