jm1220 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 SE winds always scare me for any kind of event near the coast, regardless of 850 temps, it could torch like crazy underneath. I'd really like to see more developed offshore solutions before I bite on a significant event from the city east/south. Right now, whatever would enhance the snowpack would be great, a few inches, awesome. Hopefully this trends better, but I'll never be confident of any event on roaring SE winds. The 850s can be -20 for all I care. Of course, inland is another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Looks weak on the 00z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 SE winds always scare me for any kind of event near the coast, regardless of 850 temps, it could torch like crazy underneath. I'd really like to see more developed offshore solutions before I bite on a significant event from the city east/south. Right now, whatever would enhance the snowpack would be great, a few inches, awesome. Hopefully this trends better, but I'll never be confident of any event on roaring SE winds. The 850s can be -20 for all I care. Of course, inland is another story. And there is s or se winds up to around 850 and s at 850. Tough to pull that off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Interesting how now everybody is in love with the Euro again when it was essentially a mess with previous northern stream systems and the gfs killed the Euro with them. If this was another southern stream system then I would choose the Euro for sure, but I gotta go with the gfs on this one. My previous post just stated that I was worried about the northern stream event and the gfs not being impressed.. However the GFS is by itself as of right now for this storm so going with the GFS is strictly based on a hunch and the fact that it's previously done well with northern stream...and let's not forget the GGEM has also done very well with northern stream this year and it's in line with the euro. but it's anyone's guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Btw it's about a 3 to 6 hour shot on the nam of some light to moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 16, 2014 Author Share Posted February 16, 2014 It is the US models vs. the others, my bet is with the ECMWF and GEM. Just like most of the storms this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Looks weak on the 00z nam It's hard to take the NAM serious this far out, but still needs to be considered in the whole picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 It is the US models vs. the others, my bet is with the ECMWF and GEM. Just like most of the storms this winter. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Btw it's about a 3 to 6 hour shot on the nam of some light to moderate snow. Probably is mostly rain near the coast and city verbatim. Surface temps are in the upper 30s during a lot of the precip. Not saying it's right but a system like that will have a lot of issues, despite the colder than normal ocean. SE winds despite that are only OK with an Arctic airmass maybe, not one close to marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Verbatim the 0z NAM is mostly snow at KNYC... barely. 1.8 inches worth is snow, while probably 0.4 is rain. At least from the soundings I see... But alas, it is also the NAM 60+ hours. Probably is mostly rain near the coast and city verbatim. Surface temps are in the upper 30s during a lot of the precip. Not saying it's right but a system like that will have a lot of issues, despite the colder than normal ocean. SE winds despite that are only OK with an Arctic airmass maybe, not one close to marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 RGEM coming in way more robust than the NAM was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 16, 2014 Author Share Posted February 16, 2014 Look like the non US guidance. ECMWF will probably win on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Look like the non US guidance. ECMWF will probiotic win on this one. Mitch. The euro has been so weak out of the northern branch. If it's strong tonite. I would take notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Probiotic? Lol Look like the non US guidance. ECMWF will probiotic win on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 As JetsPens said, the surface wind may be a big factor on this, the 00Z NAM numerical guidance shows us with 32/25 spread at 12Z when snow comes in at 12Z and a wind thats light SE all night before coming around more E and the ENE once snow begins...my guess is that its too low on surface temps as we'd have thickening clouds all night...wind direction is so dependent on where the low tracks, if this goes S of us I think we're probably okay.....this is also the sort of event that needs to be watched for potential to start early as you're slamming overrunning energy into a high pressure dome...it really does look alot like 1/6/89 and indeed that was the #3 analog on CIPS at 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 As JetsPens said, the surface wind may be a big factor on this, the 00Z NAM numerical guidance shows us with 32/25 spread at 12Z when snow comes in at 12Z and a wind thats light SE all night before coming around more E and the ENE once snow begins...my guess is that its too low on surface temps as we'd have thickening clouds all night...wind direction is so dependent on where the low tracks, if this goes S of us I think we're probably okay.....this is also the sort of event that needs to be watched for potential to start early as you're slamming overrunning energy into a high pressure dome...it really does look alot like 1/6/89 and indeed that was the #3 analog on CIPS at 12Z. Interesting thing is the direction that all this is occurring on the sw/wsw flow into the departing Hp. Did 89 also feature a warmer pattern setting in afterwards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 out to hr 48 looks a bit more robust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 hr 57 not like the euro..just some light snow in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 hr 60 light snow continues…still less then .1 every 3 hr period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 hr 57 not like the euro..just some light snow in the area Like Mitchell said. ..U.S suite versus the euro/ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Like Mitchell said. ..U.S suite versus the euro/ggem I'm thinking the Euro is too amped and wet here, unless the far digging and strong low idea works out. I'm more okay with a weaker overrunning event for a couple of inches than the big event idea, unless said big event can pivot the winds around. The Euro hasn't been so great with northern stream events this year and became too amped on today's event, so let's see what happens. I'm on the flatter/weak train until further notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Gfs would barely give us an inch, euro and ggem are probably way too amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Mt. Holly still bullish on snow for late Monday night into Tuesday, based on the HWO, as per below. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 852 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014 NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>106-170200- SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-CARBON- MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER- WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS- 852 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. As an aside, their point-and-click forecast, hourly weather graphic indicates about 4.3" of snow falling from about 1 am to noon on Tuesday, followed by about 0.1" of rain, as temps climb to 36F by noon. I'm curious - does anyone know what algorithm the NWS uses for those hourly forecasts? Are they based on one model or some blend (they often talk about the model blends they use in the AFD's)? Thanks, in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Gfs would barely give us an inch, euro and ggem are probably way too amped up. Euro,GGEM,Ukie are all amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Gfs would barely give us an inch, euro and ggem are probably way too amped up. Other than the euro being bad with northern stream systems this year what are you using to back up this statement? It seems you are wishing it not to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Well what did the GGEM and Ukmet show tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Wow, Ukie looks really nice. GGEM still looks nice but cut back on the amounts from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Wow, Ukie looks really nice. GGEM still looks nice but cut back on the amounts from 12z. From what to what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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